Monte Carlo Masters 2015 Picks

[Jeff_Black]

Bernard Tomic vs Lukas Rosol
Totall Game Score over 22.0 Games @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u

[Jeff_Black]

Mikhail Youzhny vs Florian Mayer
Game Handicap: Florian Mayer +4.0 @ 1.990 (Pinnacle), 2u
Money Line: Florian Mayer @ 3.22 (Pinnacle), 0.5u

[Jeff_Black]

Well that was a nice start...

R16: Fabio Fognini vs Jerzy Janowicz
Game Handicap: Jerzy Janowicz +3.0 @ 1.900 (Pinnacle), 1u play

R16: Denis Kudla vs Benoit Paire
Game Handicap: Denis Kudla +4.0 @ 2.009 (Pinnacle), 1u play

R16: Denis Istomin vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Game Handicap: Albert Ramos-Vinolas -3.5 @ 1.909 (Pinnacle), 1u play

R16: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Sergei Stakhovsky
Game Handucap: Stakhovsky +3.5 @ 1.925 (Pinnacle), 2u play
Money Line: Stakhovsky @ 2.800 (Pinnacle), 1u play

[Semper Fidelis]

Nice start to this tournament, buddy! I like your analysis and commentary on the players and matches - it's pretty obvious you know and follow tennis. Concerning Houston, I was nervous about touching Tipsy as a dog after that huge layoff, but we certainly cashed that first play (even though I felt we were lucky to win that tiebreak!).

Certainly looking forward to your contributions and discussion here! BOL on these and any other plays you have tomorrow!

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks champ!. Very much appreciated. Same thing back at ya towards your plays.
I decided to stop Houston and focus on Monte Carlo instead as that QF onwards and especially after Almagro's tank/effort in Casablanca and some other upsets it's not worth the stress.
And yeah I pushed it with Tipsarevic against Giraldo but I was pretty confident he'd win a match to get that feeling back against a challenger player. The good thing is he can clearly play better and saving those match points was IMO from experience and digging deep after letting his opponent back into the game.

Anyway as for the ones I posted above, its a bit bit more then usual, yes but Fognini and Paire are my two favourite mugs to fade.
The other things I'd like to do at this Masters are fading players that havent set a foot on clay in 2015. Rosol and Bolleli have both been knocked out and were both 0-0. I suppose Tomic was too but he's been in good enough form this year and has improved on clay every year to take advantage of it.
So that said i'll probably fade Goffin, Kohlscriebber, and Gulbis. Three guys who have had unspectacular years against opponents who can beat them or at least cover a line.

[Jeff_Black]

As for tennis on the whole I've probably been following it for most of my life, and most of those years was following it properly compared to like just Grand Slams/Davis Cup etc.
Betting wise I'm more on the new on the scene (more like 2 years) but still trying to improve myself studying patterns and the such, form etc. I bet less on Challengers/Qualifying as well.

[lucasdawg]

how is isner looking against johnson?

[Jeff_Black]

how is isner looking against johnson?

Funny I came here to post I was going to take overs for that game. As for who's gonna win I imagine Isner tanked to get ready for this.
Guess we'll see...

[lucasdawg]

hmmm how bout ramos today? any perspective?

[Jeff_Black]

The one that's playing istomin? Already got him pegged at -3.5

[lucasdawg]

looks like the match is cancelled?

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah he played and beat Haase comfortably which is no surprises, happy with the results, Fognini too good today but he never plays the same twice haha.
Would have been shitty if Kudla lost that second and didnt get the push.

[Jeff_Black]

R32: Gilles Simon vs Benjamin Balleret
Game Handicap: Benjamin Ballaret +6.0 @ 1.970 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2u play

Another one of those decent matchups where a player hasn't played on clay. Playing against someone who has. Sure Simon is a massive step up from the calibre of players Ballaret has played and Ballaret has played in some futures events to get his match level up but he has also done ok in Challengers including winning one recently so i'll take that line and see how he goes. He's earned his wildcard thats for sure.

R32: Tommy Robredo vs Andreas Seppi
Total Game Score: Over 22.0 @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u play

It's never a straight forward match between these two, never giving an inch but also capable of being broken. Seeing this as a three set match up. Despite the disappointment of the Isner/Johnson overs ill back it here again.

R32: Jiri Vesely vs Juan Monaco
Game Handicap: Juan Monaco -3.5 @ 1.909 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2u play

After his surprise Auckland breakthrough, Vesely dropped 7 straight matches and 3 of them on clay. In the last 3 years he has never been over a .500 player on the clay surface and I think Monaco has been good enough both this year/recently and on clay to cover that -3.5 line.

[badgerguy]

Great stuff

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks. Fortunately for me Simon got off to a slow start otherwise that could have been a more comfortable cover for me. Will take the push.

Anyway just two more picks for today and that'll do it for today.

R16: Florian Mayer vs Marin Cilic
Game Handicap: Florian Mayer +3.5
Money Line: Florian Mayer
Both at Pinnacle Sports, 1u on the Handicap, 0.5u on the line

Mayer showed a lot of nerve to hold out Youzhny in a gritty tiebreaker despite how dodgy Youzhny can play at times. Served well and won points off serve when it mattered. Held his nerve the best he could against a mental midget Youzhny.
Cilic has played one game all year and despite that and being a recent grand slam champion and fresh off a layout I still think he will struggle. Mayer won his last four against Youzhny and his last two against Cilic. Sure it was a while ago and players change but he clearly knows how to play against them and what works/doesn't work. Less wager but not going to push it.

R16: Bernard Tomic vs Andreas Haider Maurer
Money Line: Bernard Tomic (Pinnacle Sports)
Stake: 1u play
As I posted in another thread I think Tomic has matured enough to win more matches on clay that he should be winning compared to when he was younger and not as developed physically. He beat Rosol and has the tools and size to beat Maurer too. And I think he will be playing with more confidence with the year he's had so far. Should have got on it earlier though

[lucasdawg]

im on the same 2 plays les get irt

[Bet10Heinekens]

Stay on fire Jeff, rolling with the FloMayer ML here

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks champ, I hope I'm not pushing it, Using Cilics servere lack of match practice and on clay as a bargaining chip but liked what I've seen from Mayer, he can be a frustrating player to play against with his slice shots and he does it on clay and grass all time.&nbsp;<br><br>Tomic is worrying me but we'll see what he's made off. I just hope that service game where he was 40-0 on Maurers serve doesn't come back to bite him, was disappointed he didn't break there.&nbsp;

[lucasdawg]

mayer down a break early lets see if he can recover here zzzz, yeah pissed tomic didnt get the break at that point smh

[lucasdawg]

tomic consistent service going good! lets hope he keeps it up! 1 set up

[Jeff_Black]

I like Tomics serve stats, more then happy with how he's going, just needs to get on with the job now that he's won a set
Cilic striking the ball hard and well but he's still full or errors so early days. It also helps he's not a great volleyer heh.

[SCI]

[Jeff_Black]

That was incredibly exhausting seeing Tomic losing that from a winning position
not even that but just his extremely poor conversion rate of break points
its incredible that he wasn't phased by not converting, but it takes its toll on you mentally
In the end one the bookies got right with its closeness

[FlipsideRM]

That was incredibly exhausting seeing Tomic losing that from a winning position
not even that but just his extremely poor conversion rate of break points
its incredible that he wasn't phased by not converting, but it takes its toll on you mentally
In the end one the bookies got right with its closeness

Played Maurer at open and close at +130. That match was exhausting, Tomic had a million break points and couldn't convert, got very lucky there

[Jeff_Black]

Hes got Djokovic up next, should be an interesting game.

[DR225]

Interesting as in a complete blowout? If Tomic had 20 break points, imagine how badly joker is going to destroy him.

[Jeff_Black]

Well yeah he has one of the better conversion rates lol

Anyway just two so far:
Monaco/Wawrinka o22.0 games
Tsonga ML

[Jeff_Black]

A win and a loss, glad I wasn't too tempted taking on the big boys, they were too good today

although I think 17.5 for Djoker-Maurer is a tad low...

[Jeff_Black]

Went down to 17.0 on Pinnacle...good enough for me.

R16: Novak Djokovic vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
Total Game Score: Over 17.0 Games @ 1.833 (Pinnacle)
1u play

Rafael Nadal vs John Isner
Game Handicap:John Isner +4.0 @ 1.833 (Pinnacle)
1u play

Rafa seems to hate this matchup, and Isner fits two bills of players Rafa doesn't like playing against...Big servers and tall players. Rafa's first serve return is his worst technique and with the possibility of a tiebreak i'll have a play here.

These other lines look short to me, but will have to have another think about them. Was hoping for some better ones for the dogs but it seems the bookies are being stingy with their lines.

[Jeff_Black]

Another 1-1 day, supposed that's what I get for taking on the most in form player atm haha...

QF: Rafael Nadal vs David Ferrer
Game Handicap: Rafael Nadal -3.5 @ 1.862 (Pinnacle)
2u play

I think this is an overreaction from the previous year when Ferrer beat Nadal here and the players' form this year. People forget so quickly that Nadal has won here 8 times. This should still be -4.5/-5 so I'll take the smaller line.

QF: Tomas Berdych vs Milos Raonic
Game Handicap: Milos Raonic +2.5 @ 1.990 (Pinnacle), 2u play
Money Line: Milos Raonic @ 2.700 (Pinnacle), 0.5u play

Was pretty happy with Raonic's form and said to myself if Quarter betting was available (i.e. to make the SF) I would have taken Raonic. So i'll go with those instincts again and back him here.

[FlipsideRM]

Another 1-1 day, supposed that's what I get for taking on the most in form player atm haha...

QF: Rafael Nadal vs David Ferrer
Game Handicap: Rafael Nadal -3.5 @ 1.862 (Pinnacle)
2u play

I think this is an overreaction from the previous year when Ferrer beat Nadal here and the players' form this year. People forget so quickly that Nadal has won here 8 times. This should still be -4.5/-5 so I'll take the smaller line.

QF: Tomas Berdych vs Milos Raonic
Game Handicap: Milos Raonic +2.5 @ 1.990 (Pinnacle), 2u play
Money Line: Milos Raonic @ 2.700 (Pinnacle), 0.5u play

Was pretty happy with Raonic's form and said to myself if Quarter betting was available (i.e. to make the SF) I would have taken Raonic. So i'll go with those instincts again and back him here.

Be careful with Raonic foot problems here, called the trainer at the beginning of Robredo match. He appeared fine afterwards but something to take into consideration

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I don't look a lot into unless it's very genuine. But I do take it into concern thanks.
A lot of players seem to magically play better when there's been a break and its practically a weekly thing in the WTA lol

[Dmoneytx]

No, Flipside was being very serious. Raonic had a foot problem against Robredo. How ANY one could back Roanic with an obvious injury is way way beyond me.. You have GOT to know these things before dumping hundreds on guys who are clearly not 100% trying to play at the highest level. I unloaded on Berdych ML bec the worst case scenario was push from Milos retirement or he flat out wins.. Horribly unlucky for Milos to quit down 2-5 and not at least finish the first set, lol!! Nadal might cover, but Ferrer will give him all he can handle today.. Hoping for a good crazy long match..

[Jeff_Black]

Fair enough if he did. I've just seen problems be better as players have gone along. Remember the knee cap drama of 2012 by Nadal in the Australian Open? Usually we hear about these things after anyway so to hear it before it must have been serious. But the bookies try not to be influenced by what ifs and set the lines accordingly to begin with.
Retiring before the set indicates to me he was genuinely injured and knew there was no point of continuing so you guys were on the money there.

[Jeff_Black]

Bit of a seedy set by Nadal there.