[koscheckbaby]

What's new this year? Big Dick Raonic recovered from his injury.

[LovetoSpooge]

tailing, gl my friend.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Doha: Ramos-Tsonga Under 19.5 [+125]
Tsonga has been somewhat lackadaisical in his play early in Doha. His starts have been sluggish, leading to tie breaks and closer than expected matches. Tsonga has said the windy conditions have caused him to flip his game plan some with more net play this week. He's played here before, so this is nothing new or shouldn't be. Ramos got a win over an out of sorts Tursunov in his opener and a walkover yesterday. Looking at his brief time on hard courts, Ramos seems to have issues against power players who can move around the court. That is Tsonga in a nutshell.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Stepanek really threw this match away. Was up a break in the 2nd and then just mailed it in. Guess I should know again to never try and figure out which side of a Dolgopolov match to be on.

[MatI]

yeah mate, i saw the name 'Dolgo' -> Instant NO PLAY!

[EaglesPhan36]

This one is more on Stepanek. He was playing solid until about the 4th game of the 2nd set and then he couldn't get a 1st serve in to save his life - something pathetic like 25%.

This 3rd set is just painful on both sides, throwing away chances. Somehow back on-serve.

[EaglesPhan36]

Darcis wager cancelled. Darcis withdrew.

[Glitch]

think seppi has a chance to down fed today? +1200ish

was on darcis ML. he is very underrated.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't think Seppi has any chance.

[FlipsideRM]

You like monfils?

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm still looking at that one, but liking Troicki better at this point.

[beefcake]

Dude, I watched the Feasel match yesterday, no way Becker should be in that match that long, as usual monfils played down to competition..

[beefcake]

Man ,do we dare take baggy after murray has donked the first set in both matches?

[tevari]

2 total flakes in monfils and troicki. I would tread cautiously.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man ,do we dare take baggy after murray has donked the first set in both matches?

Definitely would not touch Murray at the price. Lots of people on Baghdatis straight up already from what I have seen around the Interwebs. Think I'd rather go +4 to be safe though. These are those spots where Murray looks like a wounded fukk and then manages to win still.

[Yezzir]

Glad you were on thye Tsonga under, me too, and Goffin/Dolgo too.. i'm doing good atm.. Did my bets this morning and had no net connection to post. I also took Troicki this morning.. Monfils didn't look too comfortable after hurting his knee midway through the 2nd set yesterday.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Elbow: 5-5-1 [-1.05]

[necro]

Very nice day, thank you EP36

[Yezzir]

The Elbow: 5-5-1 [-1.05]

Good stuff.

Anything for Fed/Seppi?

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Doha: Nadal-Youzhny Under 20 [+105]
I started this tournament thinking Nadal was a wounded duck, but he looks like he is improving and his serve has been pretty damn solid. Youzhny has worked hard for his two wins over Gulbis & Karlovic. After spending a lot of time on-court, Nadal is not the guy you want to see here. The Russian had some success against Nadal years ago, but the slower conditions here should favor Rafa more-so as he makes Youzhny work for each point.

[juventusfc]

Well Stepanek really threw this match away. Was up a break in the 2nd and then just mailed it in. Guess I should know again to never try and figure out which side of a Dolgopolov match to be on.

story of my life

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm going to pass on Monfils-Troicki. Difficult match to predict. Wind is not as bad today and that was something Monfils said troubled him some last night along with the cooler weather. He should be more used to the temperature today. Not sure if Troicki will lose some pop from his serve as well with the cooler temps at night. Think their meeting last year shows about how even this is and it could really go either way. If Troicki serves well, he'll have a shot. I'll save up for some Aussie stuff later.

[tevari]

Troicki will never be a great player. His game is way too inconsistent.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Elbow: 5-5-2 [-1.05]

Not sure what happened to Nadal, he should have crushed Youzhny in the 2nd set and the under was headed for an EZ cash. Broke the Russian again to go up 4-1 and then just farted around after that. Lost his serve right back and then it looked like he was going to blow the entire set for a bit. Wound up pushing and felt relieved getting that even if it shouldn't have even been close. Looking at the Aussie tournaments for tonight, should be some good action ...

And yes on Troick t-var. What really shyed me away from that was looking at the pick ration at Tennis Insight. Everyone was on Troicki. Just like everyone is on Baghdatis.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA Auckland: Kerber-Pennetta Over 21 [-120]
Pennetta has played very well here this week, but this will be her first stiff challenge. Kerber slid past Lisicki who retired mid-match last time out. The German did not play nearly as well as her previous match and will need to amp up her service game again. Pennetta's service game has been nearly flawless the last two matches, but that was against inferior competition. It's their first meeting since last year's US Open meeting where Kerber won in 3. Pennetta was in much poorer form back then, but I still think this one is going to be a tight and close encounter where 21 games seems a decent shot even if its straight sets for one of these ladies.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kerber = German for dog shit. Nice set girl.

[Mikica28]

go EP go!

[beefcake]

Man I think Pennetta can do some real damage at majors this year.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, well on to the next batch.

ATP Brisbane: Baghdatis +4 [-122]
Not much thinking about this. Baggy has played Murray tough regardless of health in the past year in their previous two meetings. If Baghdatis serves well, he should be in this match.

Parlay: Tomic + Raonic + Wawrinka [-105]
Tomic showed good improvement from his opener in dominating Ito yesterday who had given him some troubles in the past. Istomin is his opponent. Istomin hasn't had as much court time due to retirements from his opponents. He also wasn't great against a gimpy Mayer in his opener. If Tomic stays cool under pressure, think he makes it here. Raonic against Sela. Raonic was solid, but not spectacular in his opener. Sela labored some against Paire. He doesn't have great weaponry, so he has to outwork Raonic in rallies which he might not see many of - if Raonic's serve is powering through. Stan always worries me, but I needed a price to reduce the risk and this is a tournament that he shows up for every year. He was rusty in the opener and needs improvement, but Soeda is certainly someone he should be able to beat if he plays close to his A game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Meh. Looks like I should have gone with that gut feeling of Murray playing possum. He's smoking Baghdatis in the 1st. Hopefully he falls off.

[EaglesPhan36]

Note to self: Keep fading TI when everyone is on the dog.


High percentage there on Troicki-Baghdatis today. Eesh.

[EaglesPhan36]

Interesting notes on Federer from his "biographer" in Doha saying that Federer has some sort of muscular injury in his back. Supposedly Fed wasn't even sure he was going to play against Seppi after suffering the injury the round before. Not sure of the impact, but I am sprinkling a little something on Tsonga to win Doha @ +528. May not yield anything, but even at 100%, I'd rate JWT a shot to push Federer tomorrow. If he gets into the final, it's a great price to hedge against.

[Yezzir]

I've taken Tsonga 1st set.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Doha: Tsonga +168
Not sure how accurate the Federer back issues may or may not be, but yesterday's match with Seppi certainly showed some inconsistencies in his game be it due to injury or just normal Fed losing focus at points. Tsonga showed his best performance by dominating Ramos yesterday in straights. Obviously a lot of familiarity between these two having met eight times last year. Looking over Federer's serve stats yesterday, he was not as tight as he usual is and that could be due to the back. Their first meeting in 2011 was in Doha where Federer's serve was untouchable. Tsonga has said he is going to come to the net more this season and he's shown it so far. If there is any issue with Federer's movement, Tsonga can take advantage. If he holds serve ... I'm taking a shot that he can knock him off.

[Duff85]

On this as well EP. Got +187 at SIA.