Asian equations

[NguyenImproved]

Everyone knows that Asians are better at maths right? So what is winning at sports betting if not applied mathematics to the realm of sports.

In that spirit I'd like to welcome you to the BEST and most WINNINGEST THREAD on this forum.
My picks are not the dross you find in most posts here. (A random number generator could pick more winners than most of this lot).

Don't even try to guess what I'm doing or how I arrive at bets. You wouldn't understand anyhow.

What matters is results. And that's where I specialise.
Others can wax lyrical.

My thread is going to be simple and direct.
I will provide
WINNERS.
RESULTS.
PROFIT.

Your job: Get on, shut up and enjoy the free money.

MO: I don't bet favourites and try not to touch bets paying less than $3.00.

I won't have many picks but what I will have is premium. There is not that many holes in the market. I mean the market is stupid but not THAT stupid. So why bet without an edge. That's guessing.


I'll probably start charging money for my picks after establishing a reputation in the first year.
So get in while it's still free.


PS. I'll probably have a bit of theory here as well. To pass the time between winning bets and to provide you something to read as you're counting your cash.

[baconbets]

math is the refuge of indecisive gamblers. if you need to "check the math" before you bet, what you are really saying is "im not sure." every bet on an individual sport (like tennis or boxing) should flow from actual visualization of the match, in your mind. if you cant pick a clear winner from that, you either arent that familiar with the players involved in the match or you dont have a strong feeling about how they match up. the result is you should skip the match.

the true yet misleading premise that begins every mathematical approach to gambling is "every game has a winning outcome, therefore i should bet as many games as possible." gambling is not a standardized test (something else asians are good at), which means MOST LINES SHOULD BE SKIPPED. the reality is that the most successful gamblers are those who go really big a few times a year on bets they are comfortable with. by comparison, most of the people on this board, including those with long-standing pick threads, generally provide updates like "i went 9999 -10000 this year, -.05 units." why bet a million times just to be flat at the end of the year? chip in for fun on the plays you dont have a strong feeling about. go big (meaning all in) a few times a year. research matters but math only gets you so far.

[Hardcoar]

I wish you all the best.

[NguyenImproved]

math is the refuge of indecisive gamblers. if you need to "check the math" before you bet, what you are really saying is "im not sure." every bet on an individual sport (like tennis or boxing) should flow from actual visualization of the match, in your mind. if you cant pick a clear winner from that, you either arent that familiar with the players involved in the match or you dont have a strong feeling about how they match up. the result is you should skip the match.

the true yet misleading premise that begins every mathematical approach to gambling is "every game has a winning outcome, therefore i should bet as many games as possible." gambling is not a standardized test (something else asians are good at), which means MOST LINES SHOULD BE SKIPPED. the reality is that the most successful gamblers are those who go really big a few times a year on bets they are comfortable with. by comparison, most of the people on this board, including those with long-standing pick threads, generally provide updates like "i went 9999 -10000 this year, -.05 units." why bet a million times just to be flat at the end of the year? chip in for fun on the plays you dont have a strong feeling about. go big (meaning all in) a few times a year. research matters but math only gets you so far.

Are you reading my mind?
Well the math thing was just a funny throwaway line. Most math-orientated gamblers are too rigid.

Yes I am the only successful gambler I know and I feel it's crazy that there's people posting like "3-5" picks a day.
That is an abnormally HUGE number of gaps to spot in a market.

I haven't had a bet since WAWRINKA to beat Nadal at the AO Final (1.1k @ 5.75)

(Floated a couple futures: Halep to win FO at 21.0 and Raonic to win Halle at 7.00 for $150 each)


Math is important but not in terms of stats and pure mathematics.
I mean mostly what I find are guys with about 40%-55% chance to win that pay $3.00+ based on bias in the market or wrong perceptions.

In the case of Wawrinka I reference above he was a guy with a power game against an unimpressive Nadal (except for a thrashing of his regular bunny Federer) battling blisters etc. The pricing was bolstered by his abysmal h2h (0-12) and the fact he was a GS maiden meeting a 13 slam winner. All those factors influenced the price but NOT the performance.

Another thing I factored in was that Nadal's 2013 was stellar. Second in recent memory only to Nole's sublime 2011.
This meant 1. He'd be more likely to provide value fading as he'd be on the crest of his wave as far as being a 'hot stock'.
On the other side it also seemed more likely to me he'd be suffering from niggles of such a grueling season. Winning back to back to back tournaments all year had to have some residual physical or mental effects.

People were surprised at the win and ascribed it to Nadal being "injured". Yes there were some 120kph serves in the third set when he was already down a break but he picked that up to 180+kph serves in the live 4th. He ran like a gazelle.
To me he played his normal level in the 4th set and still lost.
The amount of "injured" players that win is too high to discount gamesmanship.


Wawrinka hasn't been the same player since which adds to the debate. I expected this. He served his purpose and fools rushed in to buy up his stock in the next slam when it was plummeting. He's now a regular feature in slam futures after the Top 4-5. Like Delpotro after the 09 UO.
These guys are not consistent though. Especially right after their initial breakthroughs and offer little value in following further after you've cashed in.



Anyway that's the kind of plays you can expect from me.


Stuff that won't make sense to anyone. And even when it salutes people will have all sorts of theories as to why it was a 'fluke' and was 'lucky' to win.
But when you follow my thread you'll see so many "flukes" get up you'll start believing.


The only downside with being a successful punter is it's not as fun as betting on everything that moves and stirs.
Discipline is required to abstain from many tempting bets. That's probably the most important part of winning.

The Pope is right: Abstinence is good for you.


I don't care if I don't have another bet for the year. If the value is there my money will be there. But I'd rather keep 100% of my hard earned cash than put it up on bets with no value.


It's like a winning football team. You need to build from the defence. If you're not leaking stupid bets that's one less winner you need to get to restore parity. And once you're losing we all know parity looks like heaven.


Anyways when I make a play I'll leave a screenshot so I can be accountable.
I will also make suggestions and "tips". To pass the time and also because I have a quite good eye for what provides value in most markets.
(Value is also a really over-used word today such as to render it meaningless. But everything I suggest will be ACTUAL value)


I don't know if you play poker but there's a term they use to describe someone who only waits around and passes tons of good hands to only play the nuts or near-nuts. It's called a ROCK. I want to be a ROCK in sports betting.

The down time can be boring though but that's why I'm still up 5k for the year. I doubt anybody here can say that. I doubt anyone here is even up ONE solitary dollar for the year.

[NguyenImproved]

I wish you all the best.

Haha thanks Hardcoar.

[Simon Gruber]

The fact that you haven't made a bet since late January means you don't have the skill to do what you outlined in the first post. By the time you build up this reputation of yours you'll be well into the second Clinton administration.

[brodie]

The fact that you haven't made a bet since late January means you don't have the skill to do what you outlined in the first post. By the time you build up this reputation of yours you'll be well into the second Clinton administration.

[sluggy1616]

Haha thanks Hardcoar.

Why u got picture of Sophie Marceau as your icon?

She aint asian bro, she's french. U no play frenchies if u know whats good for ya

[Simon Gruber]

excuse me, that should read "third" Clinton administration.

[Simon Gruber]

Why u got picture of Sophie Marceau as your icon?

She aint asian bro, she's french. U no play frenchies if u know whats good for ya

that's not her.

[frugalgambler]

Deleted. Not worth it. GL dude.

[Honeybadger44]

If your bets/results can match your confidence, then we can make a lot of money, following this thread. Looking forward to that. Good luck!

[NguyenImproved]

The fact that you haven't made a bet since late January means you don't have the skill to do what you outlined in the first post. By the time you build up this reputation of yours you'll be well into the second Clinton administration.

Haha fair play. I'll give you that.

[NguyenImproved]

Deleted. Not worth it. GL dude.

Thanks man

[NguyenImproved]

If your bets/results can match your confidence, then we can make a lot of money, following this thread. Looking forward to that. Good luck!

Thanks man.

[Semper Fidelis]

Do you have any tennis or WC picks/leans for tomorrow? I really like Zheng and Keys to both win in straights - they've been playing some amazing tennis this week, as grass is certainly their best surface.

[JC1186]

This guy's just overcompensating for a total lack of self-efficacy.

Talk is cheap.

Particularly on a "tipping forum". Yet, it's all he does.

[NguyenImproved]

This guy's just overcompensating for a total lack of self-efficacy.

Talk is cheap.

Particularly on a "tipping forum". Yet, it's all he does.

You're right. Talk is cheap.

Following YOUR rubbish tips.. Now THAT'S expensive..


How many sets did Benneteau win again?

[NguyenImproved]

Do you have any tennis or WC picks/leans for tomorrow? I really like Zheng and Keys to both win in straights - they've been playing some amazing tennis this week, as grass is certainly their best surface.

Sorry I haven't seen these girls play in my life man. Apart from Keys. But yes her game does look good for grass.

Gl though man. Hopefully I can be of more assistance once Wimby starts.

[Marillion]

And how many goals did Japan score?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2907131-japan-4-0-a.html

[SirtySree]

And how many goals did Japan score?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-bet...pan-4-0-a.html

4-0 as in 4 0's. 0-0 half time and 0-0 full time.

lmao lost it wen i read that

[NguyenImproved]

And how many goals did Japan score?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-bet...pan-4-0-a.html

That was a joke thread to rile up the soccer idiots. If you read thru the thread you'll see I tipped a draw. Even advised a guy against taking Japan AFTER the red card.

But yeah good find.. You had to do a fair bit of digging through all the winners I tipped to come up with ONE loser though I guess.

Anyways anyone with an IQ can already tell I'll be more successful than any guys here.
If you want to be a part of a winning run follow. If not.. don't.

It's pretty elementary stuff guys.

[NguyenImproved]

4-0 as in 4 0's. 0-0 half time and 0-0 full time.

lmao lost it wen i read that

Read the actual thread. I had to warn a guy off a bet when he took it seriously. That was AFTER the red card. Don't want anyone losing money because of a joke thread.

In five days my rep was so good this guy was going to take my outrageous tip on trust.

That's either a ringing endorsement for me or an indictment on the quality of these boards. Probably a bit of both I guess..

[amolg24]

Wow the ego on this guy...you've been here a week don't toot your own horn

[NguyenImproved]

Wow the ego on this guy...you've been here a week don't toot your own horn

Just letting everyone know there's money for grabs by following my tips.



You guys have been praying for a guy like me and God has deigned it fit to answer your prayers.
Make the most of it. I'm here for YOU.

In 6 months I'll probably start charging money for tips so get 'em while they're free.

[Cappinpicks]

Just letting everyone know there's money for grabs by following my tips.



You guys have been praying for a guy like me and God has deigned it fit to answer your prayers.
Make the most of it. I'm here for YOU.

In 6 months I'll probably start charging money for tips so get 'em while they're free.

[Randomhead]

Any tips then? I need to make up for some losing bets

[JC1186]

Any tips then? I need to make up for some losing bets

Good luck. No seriously, good penetrating luck!

The OP's in dream land, has no social life (I mean c'mon, a guy like that has NO real friends), and has voices in his head telling him he's awesome.

[NguyenImproved]

Good luck. No seriously, good penetrating luck!

The OP's in dream land, has no social life (I mean c'mon, a guy like that has NO real friends), and has voices in his head telling him he's awesome.

I can be arrogant at times and a sociopath at others.
I guess losers have more need to be nice..
Like I said in real life I'd be paying you to wipe my shoes bro.




And speaking of no life..why are you a constant fixture on my thread?

Others said their piece and left.
You seem obsessed with me. Is the amount of losers you tip on your thread making you sick of the place.

Feel free to learn a thing or two here.




PS How many sets did Benneteau win really. I didn't see the game.

[JC1186]

Oh looky a reply.

Yawn. Same old shit.

Either put up or shut up.

P.S.

A friend of mine once had a Vietnamese exchange student over in Aus. He was screwed up in the head just like you. True story. Something in the water in those slums you live in bruz!

[NguyenImproved]

Oh looky a reply.

Yawn. Same old shit.

Either put up or shut up.

P.S.

A friend of mine once had a Vietnamese exchange student over in Aus. He was screwed up in the head just like you. True story. Something in the water in those slums you live in bruz!

Stay classy dude!

[JC1186]

Ah haha what a hypocritical and generic response.

[kenz]

[NguyenImproved]

Ah haha what a hypocritical and generic response.

Give it a rest man.

If you persist with this it's only going to make YOU look bad..

I'm happy to debate tennis and betting. Any negativity will be ignored from hereon in will be ignored.

And I could be wrong but my hunch is that your followers would be more interested in your insights than your detailed thoughts on my personality. It's clogging up the forum and bringing down the tone.

You obviously have a passion for tennis and tennis betting. So do I.
Devoting time to the analysis and keeping up-to-date is plenty on the plate without worrying about an internet squabble.


There's enough info to analyse as it is. Do we need more mental distractions as we try to go about our capping?
Especially coming into the main tennis event of the year.


Let's call a ceasefire for the Wimby period and see how it goes.

If not you are free to continue but I will not be responding or posting detrimental posts on your thread anymore.
As fun as it's been I'm tapping out early mate. Got too much tennis to analyse to waste more time on this.


PS Kenz sorry to pull the curtain on this just as you were sitting down with your popcorn buddy!

[JC1186]

Nice to see some humility from you.

With that said, you haven't even tipped yet. So all I know about you is that you say you're good.

Honestly going on what I've seen from you and the way in which you carry yourself - I don't believe you're good. The most important quality of a successful punter is mental prowess. I've always believed that.

And you sir, have demonstrated time and time again that you're erratic and most likely mentally weak.

If you were actually good would you need to shout it out and put others down? In every bloody thread?

Of course not!

That's my opinion from what I've observed. No need to respond.

Anyway will be leaving it at that. Nice to end things in a civilised manner.