My Original tennis picks

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  • matt1216
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-27-11
    • 14683

    #1
    My Original tennis picks
    ill be posting my plays here as this thread will be here until the end of the season. I know its a new thread and its not the first one ive had but I needed to start off on a fresh state of mind. I want to get back to what I did last summer with solid but limited plays. theres no bullshit with trends this time around, just my honest opinion/prediction. I will be posting 3 plays max, and I will number them in order of strength, 1-3. 1 unit equals 50$ Alright, lets get to the picks:

    1. Riske +1.5 sets + Karlovic ML Odds 2.00 x 3 units

    2.
    Koukalova ML Odds 1.80 x 2 units

    3. Lopez ML + Flipkins ML Odds 2.10 x 1.5 units




    GL
  • Cappinpicks
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-11-10
    • 14986

    #2
    bovada added set betting and total sets... cool right
    Comment
    • matt1216
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-27-11
      • 14683

      #3
      Originally posted by Cappinpicks
      bovada added set betting and total sets... cool right
      I do like it in certain situations were the dog might/should win
      Comment
      • felix_felicus7
        SBR High Roller
        • 04-19-13
        • 175

        #4
        GL Matt! That Kenny v Lopez battle of the lefties should be interesting.
        Comment
        • matt1216
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-27-11
          • 14683

          #5
          Originally posted by felix_felicus7
          GL Matt! That Kenny v Lopez battle of the lefties should be interesting.
          Lopez should squash him, thanks man
          Comment
          • Marillion
            SBR MVP
            • 01-06-14
            • 1453

            #6
            Originally posted by felix_felicus7
            GL Matt! That Kenny v Lopez battle of the lefties should be interesting.
            DUDE AWESOME I played the game from your avatar on my TV when I was little lol.
            Comment
            • felix_felicus7
              SBR High Roller
              • 04-19-13
              • 175

              #7
              SNES is still my fave console Marillion! Sorry for the diversion Matt.
              Comment
              • pattymayo
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 05-19-09
                • 10221

                #8
                Not only is Matt a degenerate tennis gambler but he's a degenerate thread maker too
                Comment
                • PharaohUB
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-23-07
                  • 4865

                  #9
                  Originally posted by pattymayo
                  Not only is Matt a degenerate tennis gambler but he's a degenerate thread maker too
                  What happened to the other thread he said exactly same thing and then posted like twenty plays in two days??
                  Comment
                  • PharaohUB
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-23-07
                    • 4865

                    #10
                    And what was the "bullshit" with trends thing? You sound like someone who is hoping to go on a run in one thread and then go and start charging for picks. What exactly was the secret "trend"? Lol
                    Comment
                    • pattymayo
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 05-19-09
                      • 10221

                      #11
                      I've discovered matts mysterious trends:
                      Attached Files
                      Comment
                      • rankslash
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-29-13
                        • 1562

                        #12
                        Thread #3242324 and counting... Good luck though.
                        Comment
                        • brodie
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-25-13
                          • 2212

                          #13
                          ok so obviously i entered this thread to bag on matt for not only creating yet another thread, but naming it "my original tennis picks" LOL

                          but my attention has swayed to pattymayo.... patty why are you such a dick in every thread? i mean we all bag on matt, but it seems you have a personal problem with him.... like a jealous little kid ha
                          Comment
                          • matt1216
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-27-11
                            • 14683

                            #14
                            2-1 +.25 units
                            Comment
                            • matt1216
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-27-11
                              • 14683

                              #15
                              when i put "original thread" i didnt mean anything by it..... just trying to get refocused as the clay season kicked me in the nuts
                              Comment
                              • JC1186
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-21-14
                                • 1070

                                #16
                                For all those people who find it more convenient to bother you with their question rather than to Google it for themselves.
                                Comment
                                • frugalgambler
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-30-13
                                  • 3418

                                  #17
                                  GL Matt. Hopefully, you will rediscover that winning mojo you had last year.
                                  Comment
                                  • matt1216
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-27-11
                                    • 14683

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by frugalgambler
                                    GL Matt. Hopefully, you will rediscover that winning mojo you had last year.
                                    thanks man, we shall see what happens
                                    Comment
                                    • Simon Gruber
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-02-13
                                      • 2342

                                      #19
                                      I remember being at a movie theater back in February I think and my phone was on very low battery about to die, and I was about to bet 3500 on Robredo -300 or something over Andujar and just as I was at the final stage of confirming the bet the phone died and I checked the score later on to see that Robredo lost like 1 and 2 or something. To my recollection that was the end of Matt's run.
                                      Comment
                                      • matt1216
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-27-11
                                        • 14683

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Simon Gruber
                                        I remember being at a movie theater back in February I think and my phone was on very low battery about to die, and I was about to bet 3500 on Robredo -300 or something over Andujar and just as I was at the final stage of confirming the bet the phone died and I checked the score later on to see that Robredo lost like 1 and 2 or something. To my recollection that was the end of Matt's run.
                                        yeah, that was a tough one.... 1 of Andujars best performances in the past couple years... Go figure
                                        Comment
                                        • Semper Fidelis
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-22-11
                                          • 1999

                                          #21
                                          Who you liking for tomorrow Matt? Any more potential upsets catch your eye? Very surprised at how well Matosevic and Lu have been playing on grass thus far. Also, you've been pretty spot on with the ladies so far - don't know of many (if any at all) that have actually lost recently! Lol
                                          Comment
                                          • matt1216
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 10-27-11
                                            • 14683

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Semper Fidelis
                                            Who you liking for tomorrow Matt? Any more potential upsets catch your eye? Very surprised at how well Matosevic and Lu have been playing on grass thus far. Also, you've been pretty spot on with the ladies so far - don't know of many (if any at all) that have actually lost recently! Lol
                                            Thanks bud... Matosevic shoulda lost to a motivated Tsonga.. LU wasn't that special, Karlovic can't return anything on grass. I'll post something in about an hour
                                            Comment
                                            • matt1216
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-27-11
                                              • 14683

                                              #23
                                              With these in between tournaments, it's somewhat difficult to Guage how these players might come out. Two plays for today:

                                              2. Stephens/S.Zhang Over 21 Games Odds 1.87 x 2 units

                                              2. Falla 1st set Winner Odds 1.83 x 2 units


                                              Two medium stake plays above. I may add 1 more play in the morning, but that will be it.


                                              GL
                                              Comment
                                              • Big John Studd
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 06-13-14
                                                • 542

                                                #24
                                                Thanks for the Falla play!
                                                C'mon Stephens show some heart...
                                                Comment
                                                • matt1216
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-27-11
                                                  • 14683

                                                  #25
                                                  adding:

                                                  2. Stepanek ML Odds 1.77 x 2 units



                                                  GL
                                                  Comment
                                                  • matt1216
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-27-11
                                                    • 14683

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Big John Studd
                                                    Thanks for the Falla play!
                                                    C'mon Stephens show some heart...
                                                    I had that feeling Stephens would flake out... Shoulda just take S. Zhang....
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hendrafirmanto
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 04-09-14
                                                      • 81

                                                      #27
                                                      yes, stephens done it again, after we started to trust her.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • matt1216
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                        • 14683

                                                        #28
                                                        ​4-2 +1.45 units
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fitguy67
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-13-11
                                                          • 5082

                                                          #29
                                                          matt...i give you license to raise the units to absolute-max 10units...aim to keep play sizes geared to true confidence-type considerations, with absolutely no "revenge for previous losses" built into it...

                                                          large-pop plays (anything 7 or higher) should be quite rare...and the average unit-size should be 4-ish

                                                          if you use an excel sheet, put a formula at the top of your "number of units" or "weight" column to average the entire column as you go...

                                                          if you ever see this figure go over 5, it means you're drifting into revenge -driven (aka "chasing") mode and you must modify the weights to keep the average always on the "safe side" of 5

                                                          ____________

                                                          i like your plays, Matt,,,until you get hell-bent on revenge and throw all bet-size common-sense out the window

                                                          keep the number of plays manageable, and bet-sizes tied to the merits of the plays (and not the nature of your recent "run")...

                                                          if i see a handful of plays with risk-unit numbers in the 0.5 to 10max range, with an average that never exceeds five...then I know all is well in Mattovia...and i'm happy to tail
                                                          Comment
                                                          • matt1216
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-27-11
                                                            • 14683

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                            matt...i give you license to raise the units to absolute-max 10units...aim to keep play sizes geared to true confidence-type considerations, with absolutely no "revenge for previous losses" built into it...

                                                            large-pop plays (anything 7 or higher) should be quite rare...and the average unit-size should be 4-ish

                                                            if you use an excel sheet, put a formula at the top of your "number of units" or "weight" column to average the entire column as you go...

                                                            if you ever see this figure go over 5, it means you're drifting into revenge -driven (aka "chasing") mode and you must modify the weights to keep the average always on the "safe side" of 5

                                                            ____________

                                                            i like your plays, Matt,,,until you get hell-bent on revenge and throw all bet-size common-sense out the window

                                                            keep the number of plays manageable, and bet-sizes tied to the merits of the plays (and not the nature of your recent "run")...

                                                            if i see a handful of plays with risk-unit numbers in the 0.5 to 10max range, with an average that never exceeds five...then I know all is well in Mattovia...and i'm happy to tail
                                                            Thanks man... Yeah I'm definately taking a "slower approach" to this thread. In the past I would chase to hard after a loss, that would end up leading to a fast death. The unit's will be kept low, there's no need for any crazy plays, as they are far and few between
                                                            Comment
                                                            • matt1216
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-27-11
                                                              • 14683

                                                              #31
                                                              Two plays to start, I may add one later:

                                                              1. Ivanovic ML + Dimitrov +1.5 sets Odds 1.74 x 3 units

                                                              3. Groth ML Odds 2.30 x 1.5 units
                                                              Comment
                                                              • matt1216
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-27-11
                                                                • 14683

                                                                #32
                                                                Last play:

                                                                2. Falla/Kohlscriber under 21.5 games Odds 1.91 x 2 units



                                                                GL
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JC1186
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-21-14
                                                                  • 1070

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by matt1216
                                                                  3. Groth ML Odds 2.30 x 1.5 units
                                                                  I'm on Groth for 4 units @ 2.45.

                                                                  Imo the bookies have thisk one wrong. Groth should be fav. He has beaten Ram and Muller - the two best guys on grass in the draw. Kyrios on the other hand hasn't looked special. In the semi's his opponent was mentally doomed from the start and was just smacking balls into the net and outside of the tram lines.

                                                                  The bookies think it was a great win. It wasn't.

                                                                  Groth to get the job done here. He deserves to be favourite.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • manwiss
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 05-24-14
                                                                    • 77

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by matt1216
                                                                    Two plays to start, I may add one later:

                                                                    1. Ivanovic ML + Dimitrov +1.5 sets Odds 1.74 x 3 units



                                                                    I took Zhang's +5.5, hope she won't dissapoint me
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SirtySree
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-19-13
                                                                      • 2370

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by JC1186
                                                                      I'm on Groth for 4 units @ 2.45.

                                                                      Imo the bookies have thisk one wrong. Groth should be fav. He has beaten Ram and Muller - the two best guys on grass in the draw. Kyrios on the other hand hasn't looked special. In the semi's his opponent was mentally doomed from the start and was just smacking balls into the net and outside of the tram lines.

                                                                      The bookies think it was a great win. It wasn't.

                                                                      Groth to get the job done here. He deserves to be favourite.
                                                                      I know I go on about this a lot but I hate it when ppl go on about how the bookies got it wrong when it has got nothing to do with them. It's the public that's affecting the line, not the bookies. Bookies made Groth the favourite but the public are betting on Kygrios which then makes the bookies have to adjust the lines and make Groth the dog.
                                                                      Comment
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