Berdych ML

[kenz]

The price is at the lowest in their H2H history, but did not watch one dominant/convincing performance by Tsonga this year. This may justify the price.

And he got swept, actually humiliated, by all serious opponents, Federer, Cilic, Gulbis...Worst being Federer

On the other hand, Berdych serves and rallies very good this year. He swept Cilic and Gulbis.

Without the walkover, H2H 5-2 Berdych 2-0 on outdoor hard. I am taking the hotter player.

P.S. Tsonga's reaction after beating Hanescu was really funny, even wifey burst into laughter. He beat Hanescu in straights and he began jumping with joy like he beat Nadal. I thinkTsonga is more of a showman than a tennis player lately

$1500 on Berdych ML @1.45

[Bumdeal]

I have a large bet on Berdych although it's not $1500. GL.

[kenz]

I have a large bet on Berdych although it's not $1500. GL.

He should seal the deal

GL to us

[jtoler]

Even if Berdy wins thats a silly price to pay.

[kenz]

Even if Berdy wins thats a silly price to pay.

You may be right, but with current forms the price might be the right price.

[professionalAD]

itll be close

[kenz]

I think Tsonga's serve being broken is waaayyy more likely than Berdych's

Dont want to write more, I am exceptionally good at jinxing my bets

[Goat Milk]

It's tough to bet against Tsonga in a match like this. He usually will get up for this type of match against a big name player. And Tsonga when he's on his game is a better player than Berdych that is for sure. But Berdych is more consistent and you know for a fact he will show up so..... not sure man good luck. Clearly books think Berdych should win this match and I think I agree based on recent form but form is not everything. Form can come back within 1 game of good strokes.

[kenz]

It's tough to bet against Tsonga in a match like this. He usually will get up for this type of match against a big name player. And Tsonga when he's on his game is a better player than Berdych that is for sure. But Berdych is more consistent and you know for a fact he will show up so..... not sure man good luck. Clearly books think Berdych should win this match and I think I agree based on recent form but form is not everything. Form can come back within 1 game of good strokes.

Tsonga lost to Llodra here in 2013, watched the game disaster performance, his price was around @1.20

2012 beat Baggy and Rosol and lost convincingly to Delpo

2011 lost to Ljubicic, Tsonga's price around @1.20

Just like Gasquet always loses to dogs in Marseille year after year, Tsonga does not like Dubai too much. And he is not back to his form as he wanted after his injury.

In general I think Berdych is the better hard court player and Tsonga is the better indoor player, although Berdcyh is 3-2 ahead H2H on indoor

The main discussion is around the price, some take it some dont. I took it, lets see what happens

[matt1216]

Tsonga ML 3.60, I have the feeling he gets it done here

[bababooey13]

i like the over I think it would be atleast 23 if tsonga hadnt been sucking so much dick so far this year. 22.5 seems a bit low for this match up. im hoping tsonga shows up tomorrow cuz I know berdych will

[jtoler]

He beat Hanescu in straights and he began jumping with joy like he beat Nadal. I thinkTsonga is more of a showman than a tennis player lately

[pazim]

It's tough to bet against Tsonga in a match like this. He usually will get up for this type of match against a big name player. And Tsonga when he's on his game is a better player than Berdych that is for sure. But Berdych is more consistent and you know for a fact he will show up so..... not sure man good luck. Clearly books think Berdych should win this match and I think I agree based on recent form but form is not everything. Form can come back within 1 game of good strokes.

I think Berdych is way better than Tsonga. He moves well now and has more power too.

[Hardcoar]

You may be right, but with current forms the price might be the right price.

He may be right. The price might – at best – be the right price.

What conclusion do we draw from this from a betting point-of-view?

[Chaz22]

I think Tsonga will win today....

Berdick does not play good as he was in Rotterdam. Saw his first match here....Sucked.

I also think this will go over cause Tsonga is not a very good returner nowadays. Think odds here are totally wrong. this will be close matchup, with atleast one tiebreaker.

[MartyFR]

I think Tsonga will win today....

Berdick does not play good as he was in Rotterdam. Saw his first match here....Sucked.

I also think this will go over cause Tsonga is not a very good returner nowadays. Think odds here are totally wrong. this will be close matchup, with atleast one tiebreaker.

Tsonga hasn't played good at all this year. Berdych beat his last opponent 6-2 6-1 if I'm not wrong.

[jtoler]

Tsonga hasn't played good at all this year. Berdych beat his last opponent 6-2 6-1 if I'm not wrong.

His wasnt that tough but Ive seen some 6-1 6-2 matches where it was actually close and the score was definitely not an indication of the match. Berdy may well win with not work but I just wouldnt pay that price for him against Tsonga.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Birdman ml for an open parlay

[kenz]

The price is at the lowest in their H2H history, but did not watch one dominant/convincing performance by Tsonga this year. This may justify the price.

And he got swept, actually humiliated, by all serious opponents, Federer, Cilic, Gulbis...Worst being Federer

On the other hand, Berdych serves and rallies very good this year. He swept Cilic and Gulbis.

Without the walkover, H2H 5-2 Berdych 2-0 on outdoor hard. I am taking the hotter player.

P.S. Tsonga's reaction after beating Hanescu was really funny, even wifey burst into laughter. He beat Hanescu in straights and he began jumping with joy like he beat Nadal. I thinkTsonga is more of a showman than a tennis player lately

$1500 on Berdych ML @1.45

+$675

[JustSomeCash]

Love it!

[MartyFR]

Love it!

This. Congrats.

[kenz]

Tsonga got swept, actually humiliated, by all serious opponents, Federer, Cilic, Gulbis...Worst being Federer

Vs Federer 3-6, 5-7, 4-6
Vs Cilic 4-6, 4-6
Vs Gulbis 6-7, 4-6
Vs Berdych 4-6, 3-6

Tsonga did not even win 1 set against a serious opponent this year

In my opinion, Berdych's price was fair

[Hardcoar]

I agree: Berdych's price was fair.

What does that tell you from a betting standpoint?

[kenz]

I agree: Berdych's price was fair.

What does that tell you from a betting standpoint?

Not a value bet, not an invaluable bet neither.

It was not so bad of a deal as stated

[vanc143]

Tsonga plays like trash. Holy crap that was bad..... nice bet. It was hardly ever in question.

[kenz]

Last 3 days I had 3 threads which made a profit of approximately $3K

I am thinking of playing there will be a tiebreak in Karlovic - Dolgopolov game @1.52, but Dolgopolov is usually "bad luck". So will think about it a little bit more

[bababooey13]

man why did tsonga fire that coach he had last season? he has been absolute SHIT since he let him go. not saying that's the only reason for tsonga's shittiness but holy fuk he couldn't be playing any worse right now.

[sluggy1616]

I agree: Berdych's price was fair.

What does that tell you from a betting standpoint?

I might be talking out my ass but I think a "bad" price on a big fav is not a bad thing to play. Its been proven in a number of studies that points in a tennis match are not normally distributed. What that mean to me in the case of this match is some of the price of the match is based on the history of the players. THIS year Berdych is confident and has shown that he has the confidence to work out of tough spots that might arise against his serve, where Tsonga currently has LOW confidence and will not be able to work himself out of tough spots that he might in the past. This isn't a card game. The players have memory and emotions. I think normal betting rules are different for one on one contests versus team or normal profitability situations like poker.

[Bumdeal]

Grats kenz

[kenz]

Thanks everyone

BOL in your plays

[Hardcoar]

Yeah congrat's on another big hit!

[sluggy1616]

I might be talking out my ass but I think a "bad" price on a big fav is not a bad thing to play. Its been proven in a number of studies that points in a tennis match are not normally distributed. What that mean to me in the case of this match is some of the price of the match is based on the history of the players. THIS year Berdych is confident and has shown that he has the confidence to work out of tough spots that might arise against his serve, where Tsonga currently has LOW confidence and will not be able to work himself out of tough spots that he might in the past. This isn't a card game. The players have memory and emotions. I think normal betting rules are different for one on one contests versus team or normal profitability situations like poker.

To reinforce my point bird dick won 55% of the total points in this match. Was his chance of winning the match 55%? No it was much higher cause Bird Dick has the confidence to win the most important points. So sometimes the shittier the odds(with the top 4 or 5 guys) the better the play cause you know the probability of winning the bet is very high even if Bird dick is off a little because he knows how to win the important points in the match.

[Hardcoar]

When I say a bet is bad, I mean exactly that the odds hold negative value. I take into account each party's respective chances of winning as deemed by both the market, and myself. Other than Berdych being more likely to win than Tsonga for good reasons your reasoning holds more bullshit than my poor brain can stand. Simply put, it's not a good bet because you think it will win, and it's not a good bet because it won.

The odds were fair at best in my opinion, but I am certainly happy for Kenz winning his bet!

[kenz]

Thanks HC

I have a relatively small bet Dİmitrov +1.5 sets * Tb in Dolgo-Karlovic

Lets see what happens

[sluggy1616]

When I say a bet is bad, I mean exactly that the odds hold negative value. I take into account each party's respective chances of winning as deemed by both the market, and myself. Other than Berdych being more likely to win than Tsonga for good reasons your reasoning holds more bullshit than my poor brain can stand. Simply put, it's not a good bet because you think it will win, and it's not a good bet because it won.

The odds were fair at best in my opinion, but I am certainly happy for Kenz winning his bet!

Yeah I'm arguing the wrong issue. I guess what I'm saying applies to dogs. You might assign a dog a higher chance of winning a match then the books think but that doesn't mean that the dog should be bet even though there is a positive expectations? Or am I wrong here too?