Isner vs Y-H Lu (guy who beat Ferrer)

[lucullus]

Isner is the favorite @-180 while Y-H Lu has similar -180~
Lu or Hu or what ever the hell the asians name is has just defeated Ferrer in straight sets ... Im leaning Isner, as he wont flake out like Ferrer did. Thoughts?

[tipsadontlikehim]

You are probably right but don't forget Isner was 1 set down and 1 break down, Bautista served to win the match in the 2nd and choked.
Isner has more experience than Lu though, but i won't bet on this game
GL anyway

[ClutchOnandWin]

So he beat ferrer, means he's a world beater?

Tennis is about the "matchup", not the ranking of the player a player beats.

Isner is a difficult matchup for Lu, very difficult.

[tipsadontlikehim]

you got a point

[lucullus]

Clutch I agree with you on that sport's betting is about match up's, but rankings are indicative of skill to a large extent. Isner -180 is a bit too much juice so I might stay away from this one...IDK!

[Bet10Heinekens]

I'm going Isner 2-0, but tennis picks has been shit, so it's a good thing to fade it

[ClutchOnandWin]

Clutch I agree with you on that sport's betting is about match up's, but rankings are indicative of skill to a large extent. Isner -180 is a bit too much juice so I might stay away from this one...IDK!

Ranking is relative to skill but also more than anything else, consistency over a season. Ferrer has his ranking because he is just above average all season around, just as he was yesterday. Yesterday Lu, a fellow grinder was in top knick performing at around the same above average level as Ferrer but with that extra zest, desire and spark.

Also remember ferrer isn't the player he was before wimbledon last year. He went through a serious bad spell and has barely improved, he;s still knocking off these guys because of his mental toughness.

Lu also likes the low bounce in auckland as his lower center of gravity is good. He did well at wimbledon years back knocking out andy roddick before going out in the 4th round where the ball stays low after making contact with the grass.

My isse is even though the surface is low bouncing, Isner has still been managing to find bounce of off his kick serves. The crux will be how well Lu can serve, he needs variety with kick in order to avoid isner running around his forehand and swinging dangerously. Isner tends to wind up on his forehand off smaller player's second serves so we could really be looking at Lu fending off 0-30 scorelines continuously in service games. I think you are def onto something personally, but don't go for it onthe superficial basis he beat Ferrer. Lu's a smart player but he may be a ltitle too lightweight for John, if he can use his tennis IQ in avoiding the John forehand then we may have a close match. Gut tells me Isner will serve clutch though.

[lucullus]

I really like that statement clutch .."more than anything else, consistency over a season". Will definitely keep that in mind and it will improve my betting performances. Thanks bro!

[ClutchOnandWin]

No worries but you may be onto something with Lu here. Isner's game is very much "low percentage tennis at a high percentage consistency". So if Isner is off by cm's in his shots, Lu could recieve enough missed big forehands to sneak in. Will require some smart, consistent good length shots to Isner's backhand corner of the court though man. He can certainly do it, but can he get through those games where he is not making atleast 2 first serves? If Lu doesn't make a first serve, imo, the odds on who wins the point from there go to 60/40 Lu.

Basically I reckon Lu's lack of natural firepower from his serve and overall ability to win cheap points may just deprive him. You've provoked thought in me though. I consider overs value now. lol

[lucullus]

Another point I want to discuss is the fact that Ferrer played really good ball at the end of 2013 season (BNP MASTERS FINALS). Was he better than that pre-Wimbledon?

[ClutchOnandWin]

Another point I want to discuss is the fact that Ferrer played really good ball at the end of 2013 season (BNP MASTERS FINALS). Was he better than that pre-Wimbledon?

Yeah, much. I'm gonna watch these highlights, I only caught the first set before going to bed.

[ClutchOnandWin]

[ClutchOnandWin]

I'm on the overs.

Backhand to backhand he crushes Isner.

[SirtySree]

first set tie break looks good but im doing over 10.5 just to be safe. these two previous 10 games played, a lot of them has tie breaks 1st set.

[RichardGeorge]

You guys are funny... really shouldn't be betting tennis so either of you have a clue.

[lucullus]

You guys are funny... really shouldn't be betting tennis so either of you have a clue.

Not only is this a lousy contribution to the forum, but it is plain old bad english. I expect more from you!

Any ways, I went with Isner -1.5 and my guy came through. John Isgod. Brought me home 500$.

[Noleafclover]

That was an alt line, luc? Or did it close that low. Was at 2.5.

[lucullus]

Alternate line, bought points, etc.