THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[Hardcoar]

Chardy 3-0 @ 11 – 3 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Wozniacki @ 1.91 – 3 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

Wozniacki is going to bring about the public burial of the entire public... you just watch!

P.S. GOD DAMMIT CHARDY THAT'S A BAD CHARDY!!!

[Hardcoar]

Svitolina 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

Robert 3-0 @ 7.5 – 5 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Halep 2-1 @ 7 – 2 units (William Hill)

[fitguy67]

#62, B-Agut has dominated #28 in H2H (4-1 in matches, 9-1 in sets, 63-44 in games) and 6-3, 6-4 just days ago in Auckland...

even at current 1.50-ish level, my uneducated eye sees some value in Agut

i think this is where it'd be useful to consider other ways to play this as well, such as Agut, 1st @1.60-ish
or perhaps Agut -a few games
______
what's your take on this situation where the higher ranked player (something the more-casual GS-betting public would notice more than the H2H methinks) has been owned by lower-ranked one?

[Hardcoar]

I think this one is so tough for a betting prospect... take a look at the odds of their last encounter at matchstat.com and consider what that tells. Both players come off demanding five-setters although ol' B-A is obviously the more physically (and mentally, let's not forget) fit of the two combattants. I personally don't like giving too much weight to the "signature-win-let-down angle" but I always love myself some Pear-dawg (that is to say Paire as a betting prospect being the underdog). I wouldn't touch B-A 1:st though, since Paire is the most likely to win earlier sets if you ask me. Maybe the over, although as is always the case, I am terrible at calling what is a good line and what is not. Live action should be good too!

Also, on a personal note, please try to distinguish between games and sets. I hate it when Americans f*ck that up (it's always Americans, for some reason). Not to mention, it's pretty important.

[sluggy1616]

I think this one is so tough for a betting prospect... take a look at the odds of their last encounter at matchstat.com and consider what that tells. Both players come off demanding five-setters although ol' B-A is obviously the more physically (and mentally, let's not forget) fit of the two combattants. I personally don't like giving too much weight to the "signature-win-let-down angle" but I always love myself some Pear-dawg (that is to say Paire as a betting prospect being the underdog). I wouldn't touch B-A 1:st though, since Paire is the most likely to win earlier sets if you ask me. Maybe the over, although as is always the case, I am terrible at calling what is a good line and what is not. Live action should be good too!

Also, on a personal note, please try to distinguish between games and sets. I hate it when Americans f*ck that up (it's always Americans, for some reason). Not to mention, it's pretty important.

I think I saw your French before. You must be getting sick of seeing people bag on the French players. I really like French people. The culture is wonderful and the people are so relaxed. I would bet that all of these French players are more happy than their foreign counter-parts and will live to be much older than these other guys. When I bet on a tennis player I want them to be ruthless like Nadal. I want to bet on the guy that would beat his grandma if it would help his pocket book and ranking. I think many others think like me. I apologize if my comments come off as sounding like French bashing. I don't mean it to come out like it sounds.

[Hardcoar]

Never gets old!

[Hardcoar]

Robert @ 2.38 – 10 units (William Hill)

[fitguy67]

Also, on a personal note, please try to distinguish between games and sets. I hate it when Americans f*ck that up (it's always Americans, for some reason). Not to mention, it's pretty important.

Thanks for the insight, HC...

I clearly meant "matches...sets...games" and not "matches...games...games"...in fact i'd just noticed and finished editing that second item before reading your response. I'm a stickler for logic (and the proper terminology it depends on) as well, and very few of my posts go unedited for typos...including this one.

I guess if i was born a few miles to the south, on the gun-toting side of the border I wouldn't give a damn...and would be "waiting ON" an injury report before deciding something, etc. etc.

But you have to be flexible...
*money-line/match line
*1.833/-120
and other intercontinental differences in terminology amount to the same as "tom-AY-to/tom-AH-to" and some people saying your baby is "long" instead of "tall" etc...as long as we understand each other, no need to correct different ways to skin the same cat/express the same meaning
_________

that being said, i must mention the one thing that irritates me more than anything is
replacing the word "have" with "of"...as in "I should OF bet the over instead of the handicap."...Typing "apostrophe-v-e-space" is actually the same amount of work as "space-o-f-space"...your American tennis-pro SBR buddy was a world top-ten in that department (and in the use of upper-case and exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!WTF!!!!!!!)

[stepanekslips]

Thanks for the insight, HC...

I clearly meant "matches...sets...games" and not "matches...games...games"...in fact i'd just noticed and finished editing that second item before reading your response. I'm a stickler for proper terminology as well, and very few of my posts go unedited for typos.

I guess if i was born a few miles to the south, on the gun-toting side of the border I wouldn't give a damn...and would be "waiting ON" an injury report before deciding something, etc. etc.

But you have to be flexible...
*money-line/match line
*1.833/-120
and other intercontinental differences in terminology amount to the same as "tom-AY-to/tom-AH-to" and some people saying your baby is "long" instead of "tall"...as long as we understand each other, no need to correct different ways to skin the same cat/express the same meaning
_________

that being said, i must mention the one thing that irritates me more than anything is
replacing the word "have" with "of"...as in "I should OF bet the over instead of the handicap."...Typing "apostrophe-v-e-space" is actually the same amount of work as "space-o-f-space"...your American tennis-pro SBR buddy was a world top-ten in that department

I always pictured you as Nic Cage type character just so you know.

[Hardcoar]

Monfils @ 8 – 3 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Cornet @ 7 – 3 units (Bet365)
Cornet 1:st @ 5 – 3 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Nishikori -7.5 @ 1.91 – 20 units (Ladbrokes)

[fitguy67]

I always pictured you as Nic Cage type character just so you know.

note to self: check out Nic pics as candidates for next avatar!

_____________

HC, nice hit so far on Robert...would be nice if Monfils has some more of that "magique francaise" for us in a while.

LOL that someone thinks you're French...i have you pegged for German/Dutch/Austrian, maybe even Swiss...any closer?

[Hardcoar]

I'm a citizen of the world in truth. I feel at home nowhere and everywhere. I love all human beings by default, until they piss me off which tends to occur frequently.

I like flaming on online forums too, especially when people deserve it.

Oh... now I get it! The guy must think I'm French because I bet on Robert and Monfils. No sir – those bets were placed because they're good. I don't care one bit for nationalities.

[Hardcoar]

Robredo @ 3.25 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX

Zheng 2-1 @ 5 – 4 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Chardy @ 3.5 – 5 units (William Hill)
Chardy–Ferrer over 38.5 @ evens – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX
FUXX

Monfils 1:st @ 4.33 – 3 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Davis 1:st @ 3 – 4 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Chardy 3-0 @ 11 – 3 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Wozniacki @ 1.91 – 3 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX

Svitolina 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

FUXX

Robert 3-0 @ 7.5 – 5 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Halep 2-1 @ 7 – 2 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Robert @ 2.38 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Monfils @ 8 – 3 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Cornet @ 7 – 3 units (Bet365)
Cornet 1:st @ 5 – 3 units (Bet365)

FUXX
FUXX

Nishikori -7.5 @ 1.91 – 20 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX

Total hits: 65
Total mishits: 102
Total stake: 682u
Net yield: +94.492u
ROI: +13.86 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Bitches of both sexes (except DAVIIID!!! himself) choking on DAVIIID!!!'s DIXX all over the place.

I know this is probably where some might say I shouldn't be complaining. Well... f*ck 'em! I like complaining if it's all for a good cause!

[Hardcoar]

Dellacqua @ 3 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
Dellacqua 2-1 @ 6.5 – 3 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Makarova 1:st @ 3.4 – 5 units (Ladbrokes)

[yatescutler]

could you please explain your staking, sometimes you bet 3 units, then you decide to put 10 or even 20 units on a single play.
i assume its the confidence in the strength of your pick, but 20 units on nishikori -7.5 seems a bit of.
i mean 20 fukkin units for a 7.5 games handicap, this looks a lit off to me but you won this pick nontheless.
bravo!

[Rococo]

Dellacqua @ 3 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

Folowing you on this (not the amount of units though), good luck!

[Hardcoar]

could you please explain your staking, sometimes you bet 3 units, then you decide to put 10 or even 20 units on a single play.
i assume its the confidence in the strength of your pick, but 20 units on nishikori -7.5 seems a bit of.
i mean 20 fukkin units for a 7.5 games handicap, this looks a lit off to me but you won this pick nontheless.
bravo!

A unit is relative to the size of your bank-roll and it's up to you to decide just how much of it a unit of yours should make up. In my case the amount of units bet is related solely to estimated value and confidence (primarily the prior).

A unit approximates to 1 % of my original bank-roll, but as the latter has grown by a large amount recently the proportions have become slightly skewed.

I can't say I'm certain of what you mean by "lit off" but I had a huge wager on Nishikori covering -7.5 (as indicated by my post many hours before the match started) and fortunately it won. It matters jack shit how great the HC is, what matters is how likely I believe it to be covered (and that's im in the vicinity of right on average). As I've hinted to above, I bet this much of my money because I found him far more likely than 55 % of covering the spread. I rarely make write-ups as it's too time-consuming for me and would distract from actually finding good bets, but if anyone asks Jerzy shalt deliveth, and I do my best to answer as much as possible.

If you're questioning whether I'm betting a lot more on that pick than most others, it's both insulting and illogical as far as I'm concerned. Why the flying f*ck do you think I'm posting in the first place? Why do you think I keep a record? Why do you think I use units? Why does it matter all the same? What difference does it makes? I'm not posting live or post-lines, and these are the picks I've made regardless and the results are written on the wall for anyone to see. My thread is by far the most verifiable and trackable I have ever seen on this board – or any other public one, for that matter.

If you have some kind of issue with people who make certain wagers larger than others I would recommend simply maintaining a flat stake: Bet to win X units, or bet e units on every bet you make.

[Hardcoar]

Folowing you on this (not the amount of units though), good luck!

Dellacqua should be @ 2.4 at most the way she's playing in my opinion. My only concern is fatigue but I don't think it will factor in for this match.

[lucullus]

nice call on nishi

[Hardcoar]

I agree, but I was lucky it won. You would not want to be struck by bad luck on massive plays.

[1923]

what is your reason Hardcoar for Dellacqua ?

[Hardcoar]

Bouchard is slightly overrated in general having not performed well in slams and struggles with lefties statistically. Dellacqua is playing at home having an insane strike of form recently. My only concern (again) is fatigue, but with cooler conditions and BO3 with a two-day rest I'm not that worried – It's only RO4.

Edit: RO 16 obviously... the fourth round.

[1923]

ok thanks so much

[Hardcoar]

Mayer @ 4.33 – 4 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Bautista-Agut @ 2.62 – 3 units (William Hill)
Bautista-Agut 3-0 @ 8– 2 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Ivanovic +6.5 @ 1.9 – 10 units (Bet365)

[fitguy67]

I'm a citizen of the world in truth. I feel at home nowhere and everywhere. I love all human beings by default, until they piss me off which tends to occur frequently.

.....

I don't care one bit for nationalities.

reminds me of one of my favorite quotations...

"Patriotism is the refuge of scoundrels."