ATP Dubai

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-22-09, 09:08 PM

Looby blows. Nice odds, but he's in awful form & most of that Dubai success for him is 4 years old. Good luck with your selection though. It's a no-play match for me.

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-22-09, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Looby blows. Nice odds, but he's in awful form & most of that Dubai success for him is 4 years old. Good luck with your selection though. It's a no-play match for me.

Yeah I agree.. but when he's on he can easily cause some upsets especially against a weaker hard-courter like Ferrer.. I'm hoping on that

**GoodOldTed** · 02-23-09, 11:50 AM

Watched the live video of Ferrer a few wks back in Johannesburg, he was playing very well. The last couple of wks have been on much faster indoor courts which don't suit his game as well. Ljubicic started fine, hit a lot of winners on his forehand but Ferrer just too solid in the end. His forte is his stamina, whereas Ljubicic is all about the serve and his limited game is in decline now.

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-23-09, 01:30 PM

I had hopes for Ljublicicafter he won the first set, but you really have to wonder about a player after collapsing like that. 6-1 6-2 after winning the first set? That's not even trying. The serve is the last thing to go, he could've held more than 3 times in two sets even if he was tired.

I'm not even mad because I half expected, I'm just saying. Why even try at all unless he himself bet on the OVER or something

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-23-09, 06:06 PM

Adding some from Acapulco - I hate Clay but I'm taking a shot anyway.

Chela -4 over Cuevas - Chela has done really well in his comeback and Cuevas has a good record on clay this year but has only beaten lower-mid level players, can't win against the better ones. Chela has only lost to Robredo this year.. which 90% of players do on clay. Even took him 3 sets both time. loss

Vassalo Arguello -3.5 over Navarro - V.A. is a solid clay courter and it's more of a Navarro fade since he's 3-7 in his last 10, losing to some pretty unheralded players along the way. loss

**MadCapper** · 02-23-09, 09:29 PM

Good stuff.

Good to see another tennis guy on board.

Against you with Cuevas +4

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-23-09, 10:45 PM

Benneteau -125 over Melzer - Benneteau leads H2H 2-0 and he's always on, meaning he'll try his best while Melzer is a very streaky player. I'll take the consistent one here. win

Safin +180 over Gasquet - Hey you never know. Gasquet has barely played any tennis in the last month, losing in the 1st round in Marseille just like Safin. As long as Safin's serve is on he can easily win this. His tennis special are probably better than Gasquet's when he's on and this is a good price for what I think is a matchup slightly in Safin's favor. loss

Tursunov -145 over Seppi - Seppi is in decent form but I don't know.. is losing closely better than losing period? Dmitry is finally playing much better tennis before running into determined opponents like Tsonga and Lopez. I think he'll finally get out of the second round this tournament. I compare Tursunov to Youzhny in that he has the skills to go deep in tournaments and a top 20 ranking is there for the taking if only he had the consistency and good injury luck. This will be a tough match, and Dmitry has the skill to take it. If I was one of these "value bettors" I'd take Seppi here, but I don't take anyone unless I really think they have a good shot. win

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-23-09, 11:27 PM

Okay I officially am retiring from picking clay matches, I will try and limit myself to one per day. I'm about to be 0-3 today on clay but the fact is I hate the stuff and always have. It's just the same roundabout of players from South America and Spain playing each other 20 times each throughout the clay court season, somehow ALWAYS playing 4 hour long 3 set matches that defy explanation. There's never an easy straight set win here. Hernandez, Cuevas, Vassallo, Robredo, Montanes, Acasuso, Martin, etc.

It's a sissy surface. There's no point construction or power involved, just endless 5 minute long points that could go any way, and these guys get broken easily. And even the top clay guys like Almagro and Robredo lose in the French Open to great clay courters like people who are in the top 20 that almost never play clay, if you know what I mean. The only clay courter I respect is Nadal because he has some actual skills and competes with the best, he doesn't show up from February to May then bomb out in 1st round losses the rest of the year. The reason why so many good players always lose in the 1st round then go to another hard court tourney is cause they don't care. Clay is the only surface that's not translatable anywhere else!

**Sunday Rider** · 02-24-09, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

Safin +180 over Gasquet - Hey you never know. Gasquet has barely played any tennis in the last month, losing in the 1st round in Marseille just like Safin. As long as Safin's serve is on he can easily win this. His tennis special are probably better than Gasquet's when he's on and this is a good price for what I think is a matchup slightly in Safin's favor.

Safin already said this was his last season.. he came into the season with 2 black eyes and he doesnt seem to have the focus he once had.
I hope he can regain his form but i dont think he has the discipline to do it. Nevertheless i hope u win your bet!

GL

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-24-09, 10:22 PM

3-2 in Dubai, kind of "pick one I like and pick a possible underdog" the past two days but that will change.. (I've also done well in Florida and bad in Acapulco..)

Two slight favorites tomorrow

Kohlschriber -130 over Ferrer - Ferrer was getting owned by Ljublicic until he stopped trying. Kohlscriber is another big server that finally seems to "have it" blowing out Lammer 6-1 6-1. Cannon fodder for sure, but in these tournaments it's important to note who takes care of business and who doesn't. Kohlscriber should get it done with his big serve tomorrow. loss

Tursunov -120 over Andreev - In my last Tursunov pick I predicted he'll finally make the third round of a tournament this year if he was focused and got the right opponents. Money -> Mouth. Andreev owns the H2H 5-1 but the first three were when Tursunov was not yet established, and the last 2 were on clay, Andreev's best surface. It may seem like nitpicking but whatever. Andreev has lost to people like Kunitsyn in his last tournament, and out of form Davdenko and qualifier Dodig before then, and this leaves me thinking he's not quite in form yet. Tursunov blasted Seppi off the court, a MUCH easier match than anyone anticipated. I predict he continues his run here.

**MadCapper** · 02-24-09, 10:26 PM

on both of these already.

posted in my thread.

**meganie** · 02-24-09, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

Kohlschriber -130 over Ferrer - Ferrer was getting owned by Ljublicic until he stopped trying. Kohlscriber is another big server that finally seems to "have it" blowing out Lammer 6-1 6-1. Cannon fodder for sure, but in these tournaments it's important to note who takes care of business and who doesn't. Kohlscriber should get it done with his big serve tomorrow.

Not that I don't like it, but since when is Kohlschreiber a big server? He has a pretty average serve imo.

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-24-09, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by MadCapper

on both of these already.<br />
<br />
posted in my thread.

<br />
<br />
I am glad to know we are on the same page!

Originally posted by meganie

Not that I don't like it, but since when is Kohlschreiber a big server? He has a pretty average serve imo.

I'm sorry - I worded it wrong, not a big server but consistent server in that he hits and wins almost 70% first serves and almost never falters. A very consistent guy.

Adding another play.

Cilic -4 -112 vs Benneteau. Benneteau struggled with Melzer in the 1st round before coming back, and Cilic is a remarkable 9-1 in his last 10, only loss coming to Del Potro in the Aussie, and only two three setters against Tipsarevic. He is in awesome form and I expect him to roll here. loss

**meganie** · 02-25-09, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

I'm sorry - I worded it wrong, not a big server but consistent server in that he hits and wins almost 70% first serves and almost never falters. A very consistent guy.

This I can agree (though I think it's rather because of his consistent strokes).

**GoodOldTed** · 02-25-09, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

It's a sissy surface. There's no point construction or power involved, just endless 5 minute long points that could go any way, and these guys get broken easily. And even the top clay guys like Almagro and Robredo lose in the French Open to great clay courters like people who are in the top 20 that almost never play clay, if you know what I mean. The only clay courter I respect is Nadal because he has some actual skills and competes with the best, he doesn't show up from February to May then bomb out in 1st round losses the rest of the year. The reason why so many good players always lose in the 1st round then go to another hard court tourney is cause they don't care. Clay is the only surface that's not translatable anywhere else!

Borne out of frustration more than fact I think....

Point construction is the key part of playing on clay. The serve isn't so dominant, which isn't such a bad thing. It means one-dimensional hacks like Isner and Karlovic are found out very quickly.

Robredo and Almagro aren't 'great' claycourters, that's like saying Tony Romo is a great quarterback. They are all good at their level but up against the cream, they curdle. They pick off all the minor events theguns can't be bothered with.

Some guys are purely clay players (Granollers, Montanes) others are solid on both clay and hard (del Potro, Nalbandian) and then you have the others who are completely useless on clay (Ginepri, Blake).

I bet more in-running than pre-match. Clay is the best surface for it because the serve isn't so important. A break means one player shortens up way too much, so you back the other guy. Two games later they're back on serve and you green up. A break is never a break until the player holds serve themselves.

In women's tennis, breaks of serve are almost expected on the dirt.

Not being Spanish or South American, I hate clay to play on. I wasn't brought up on it and it doesn't suit my game (give me grass anytime), but to bet on, clay is the best of the lot. You just have to treat it differently. The key part to playing on clay is having the time to adapt when changing surfaces.

**ZXCVBNM** · 02-25-09, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by GoodOldTed

Borne out of frustration more than fact I think....

Point construction is the key part of playing on clay. The serve isn't so dominant, which isn't such a bad thing. It means one-dimensional hacks like Isner and Karlovic are found out very quickly.

Robredo and Almagro aren't 'great' claycourters, that's like saying Tony Romo is a great quarterback. They are all good at their level but up against the cream, they curdle. They pick off all the minor events theguns can't be bothered with.

Some guys are purely clay players (Granollers, Montanes) others are solid on both clay and hard (del Potro, Nalbandian) and then you have the others who are completely useless on clay (Ginepri, Blake).

I bet more in-running than pre-match. Clay is the best surface for it because the serve isn't so important. A break means one player shortens up way too much, so you back the other guy. Two games later they're back on serve and you green up. A break is never a break until the player holds serve themselves.

In women's tennis, breaks of serve are almost expected on the dirt.

Not being Spanish or South American, I hate clay to play on. I wasn't brought up on it and it doesn't suit my game (gives me grass anytime), but to bet on, clay is the best of the lot. You just have to treat it differently. The key part to playing on clay is having the time to adapt when changing surfaces.

very interesting post sir, I really liked your point about Almagro and them picking off the minor events. One-dimensional hacks ARE bad but these guys are one-dimensional hacks, only good for clay! I guess there are hacks on every surface.

0-2 to start, not what I had hoped for and Cilic plays his 3rd three setter of the year. And Kohlscriber most his break points, and couldn't convert on Ferrer's. Happens.

Adding two from Delray Beach -

Korolev -2 -110 over Kendrick. I can't help but think Kendrick will collapse against the first decent player he faces and Korolev is on a nice run. Sela-like from last week. Qualify, beat a tourney seed, and continue. He's on a nice run and Kendrick showed a lot of vulnerability last night, I think Korolev will continue rolling after beating the solid Kunitsyn.

Garcia Lopez/Muller Under 23 - I love these types of high numbers when it isn't clear who will win. I think that it often goes under the number in a two setter. I like Lopez to win because he's a better player, but you can never discount Muller's big serve. I do think either Muller will be overwhelmed by GL's skill, or GL will be overwhelmed by Muller's serve. I think the former is more likely and I can even afford a first set tiebreak for the under.