ATP Tyumen - R1 challenger. Big market mover

[MiddleMan]

The match between Stanislav Vovk and Artem Smirnov has produced a fairly massive line movement.

Vovk opened at $1.55 and has since been backed into as low as $1.25 with pinnacle. Surprisingly, Smirnov is actually ranked higher of the two players, but obviously form and fitness has A LOT to do with the line movement. Smirnov (397th) has played just five games since June, having lost four of them. Of those four, two of them were 6-1, 6-1 and 6-0, 6-0 scorelines in challenger events, while the other two losses both came in futures events, to the 867th and the 964th ranked players (winning a total of just nine games combined in both those losses).

Vovk (532nd) is a 22-year-old who hasn't played in challenger events this year. He is 29-14 on the year in futures, having won nine of his past ten matches, seven of which were in straight sets.

Do those stats alone explain the line movement, or is there something else?

[tipsadontlikehim]

stunning ...they removed the match on Pinnacle, something is going on... fix ?

[tipsadontlikehim]

the odds http://www.betpal.com/vovk-stanislav...-odds-m2540615

[MiddleMan]

stunning ...they removed the match on Pinnacle, something is going on... fix ?

I'm not sure. Pinnacle has taken down about four matches from the Russian tournament. I have emailed them to ask what's going on and if the market will be available for betting again. The match isn't starting for ten hours.

[MiddleMan]

Dear Client,

Thank you for contacting us.

We hereby would like to inform you that we are no longer offering odds for that specific event.

Please monitor our site for any other matches we are offering.

We apologize for any inconvenience caused and appreciate your understanding.

I wonder why they have taken it down. The most obvious reason would be due to a possible fix, because Pinnacle's dynamic odds encourages them to leave markets open. I could understand if smaller corporate books suspended or completely terminated a market. Does anyone have any idea as to why they are no longer taking bets on this game?

[reddZor]

so who do we bet on if the market is still open?

[losschaser]

stunning ...they removed the match on Pinnacle, something is going on... fix ?

These guys make nothing in these tournaments, esp if they lose in the first few rounds. Its more profitable for them to fix a match than legitimately try to win.

[MiddleMan]

Betezy still has Vovk at $1.53.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

T. Gabashvili vs A. Artunedo Martinavarr for Match. anyone know when this match is on????????? fk i hate all the delays in tennis

[reddZor]

nice call middleman. smirnov won lol. defs fixed rofl. if you see another market mover. please post it bro! good work.

[MiddleMan]

nice call middleman. smirnov won lol. defs fixed rofl. if you see another market mover. please post it bro! good work.

Firstly, your grammar is absolutely outstanding, so well done on that.

Secondly, since when did I mention the game was fixed? I was simply asking the question as to why the market had moved so much. I provided a possible explanation, but not once did I mention the game was fixed, although I later mentioned it may have been a possibility.

Thirdly, how much money did you make on this game, because I still managed to make money by taking advantage of the market moving. So based on that, if I see another market mover like you have suggested, of course I will post it again, because no matter what the outcome is, when a market moves so much, money can basically fall out of the sky if you're smart enough.

[tipsadontlikehim]

the problem with these market movers is, we still never know what's going on.. i had a similar bad experience lately, Fischer vs. Zeballos in Austria.

Did anyone remember the match ? Fisher (local player) odds moved from 2.5 to 1.5 before the match. I convinced myself to bet on Fischer @1.54 (luckily not a big amount, just for the experience).

Zeballos wins the 1st set and starts playing crap in the second, ask medical time out, etc etc... Fischer leading 6/1 and 2/0 in the third... Zeballos ends up winning the 3rd 6/4. I still don't understand what happened

[addictedto]

the problem with these market movers is, we still never know what's going on.. i had a similar bad experience lately, Fischer vs. Zeballos in Austria.

Did anyone remember the match ? Fisher (local player) odds moved from 2.5 to 1.5 before the match. I convinced myself to bet on Fischer @1.54 (luckily not a big amount, just for the experience).

Zeballos wins the 1st set and starts playing crap in the second, ask medical time out, etc etc... Fischer leading 6/1 and 2/0 in the third... Zeballos ends up winning the 3rd 6/4. I still don't understand what happened

Then you could have hedged @1.10 for Fischer and still get a decent amount each way.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Then you could have hedged @1.10 for Fischer and still get a decent amount each way.

Indeed mate, but when you see these weird odds before the match and then the guy leading 2/0 in the last set, you never think he's gonna end up losing

[Hardcoar]

the problem with these market movers is, we still never know what's going on.. i had a similar bad experience lately, Fischer vs. Zeballos in Austria.

Did anyone remember the match ? Fisher (local player) odds moved from 2.5 to 1.5 before the match. I convinced myself to bet on Fischer @1.54 (luckily not a big amount, just for the experience).

Zeballos wins the 1st set and starts playing crap in the second, ask medical time out, etc etc... Fischer leading 6/1 and 2/0 in the third... Zeballos ends up winning the 3rd 6/4. I still don't understand what happened

Whore was suffering from a severe stomach/abdomen ailment.

[poet]

Firstly, your grammar is absolutely outstanding, so well done on that.

Secondly, since when did I mention the game was fixed? I was simply asking the question as to why the market had moved so much. I provided a possible explanation, but not once did I mention the game was fixed, although I later mentioned it may have been a possibility.

Thirdly, how much money did you make on this game, because I still managed to make money by taking advantage of the market moving. So based on that, if I see another market mover like you have suggested, of course I will post it again, because no matter what the outcome is, when a market moves so much, money can basically fall out of the sky if you're smart enough.

So how exactly did you do it middleman? Can you take me through the bets you made. Did you have a bet in before the line moved or did you see it moving in one book but not another? Please explain. Thanks.

[MiddleMan]

So how exactly did you do it middleman? Can you take me through the bets you made. Did you have a bet in before the line moved or did you see it moving in one book but not another? Please explain. Thanks.

Yes, one agency was slow to adjust their odds. I stood to win a lot more had the Russian won, but I still covered myself by backing Smirnov and making a small profit based on him winning. It sucked, though, because it ended up costing me one of my accounts. I received an email informing me that due to a commercial decision, they regret to inform me they have taken the action of closing my account due to betting on Smirnov. Disgusting, because I've never actually liked Vodka.

[losschaser]

Yes, one agency was slow to adjust their odds. I stood to win a lot more had the Russian won, but I still covered myself by backing Smirnov and making a small profit based on him winning. It sucked, though, because it ended up costing me one of my accounts. I received an email informing me that due to a commercial decision, they regret to inform me they have taken the action of closing my account due to betting on Smirnov. Disgusting, because I've never actually liked Vodka.

What ??!! How much did you bet and what book ?

[MiddleMan]

What ??!! How much did you bet and what book ?

Bookmaker/Ladbrokes.

It sucks when you can analyse which way a market will move in order to make money, but because their terms and conditions allow it, corporate bookies can limit you/close you down as a result.

I bet a significant amount, but prefer not to say how much. If it was only $100/$200 on both outcomes, I probably wouldn't have had my accounts closed. Not in the short term, anyway.

[losschaser]

Bookmaker/Ladbrokes.

It sucks when you can analyse which way a market will move in order to make money, but because their terms and conditions allow it, corporate bookies can limit you/close you down as a result.

I bet a significant amount, but prefer not to say how much. If it was only $100/$200 on both outcomes, I probably wouldn't have had my accounts closed. Not in the short term, anyway.

Whats the secret ? They might of thought you were in on the fix if it was in the thousands

[Cessation]

Books just don't like arbers. It's pretty obvious from their end, especially when betting on tennis with Australian based books as it isn't a big market for them. He'd probably be the only person to bet on a low profile challenger match like that with the book, let alone having 100s or 1000s on it. Is it really worth the effort MiddleMan getting blacklisted at every book?

[MiddleMan]

Books just don't like arbers. It's pretty obvious from their end, especially when betting on tennis with Australian based books as it isn't a big market for them. He'd probably be the only person to bet on a low profile challenger match like that with the book, let alone having 100s or 1000s on it. Is it really worth the effort MiddleMan getting blacklisted at every book?

Considering I'm up $27k over the past two years, I would say yes it's worth the effort.

[poet]

Considering I'm up $27k over the past two years, I would say yes it's worth the effort.

Good job, MM. I wish I had access to your books. As an American I have limited options. Also, do you go through the lines in each book yourself, on a daily basis, and how long does that take you? I've done this myself but it take a lot of work and unless I'm betting hundreds or thousands (like you) there is little payoff. And, as I mentioned before, I have few options. As you recall I won money on Davis and Fed cup with this method as well as Wimbledon where one book still had Murray at +160 even though he had dropped to +130 or so elsewhere.

[MiddleMan]

I won't explain all of my methods, because I'm worried about getting caught, but it doesn't take me that long.

Living in America wouldn't be the best, though.

[poet]

I won't explain all of my methods, because I'm worried about getting caught, but it doesn't take me that long.

Living in America wouldn't be the best, though.

I'll message you and if you feel generous maybe you can give me a couple of tips.