Arb opportunity -215/+230 davis cup

gaebiskon · 11-13-13, 01:33 AM

thanks for sharing

frugalgambler · 11-13-13, 01:37 AM

I am guessing Tipsarevic will not play or will play with an unhealed injury for Pinnacle to drop the odds from -300 to about -200. 5dimes removed that option altogether.

poet · 11-13-13, 03:44 PM

Alright guys, I bought the Czech for 1 grand at +225. Let's get a discussion going because my intention here is to hedge. I'd never risk that much on the likes of Birdshit no matter how likely he was to win. If Tips does not play what are the Czechs chances of winning the two matches against his replacement? And if you think the singles matches will end in a tie (with Djoker winning his two and the Czechs the other two) and it will comes down to doubles, what do you think the odds will be for that match? I guess I'm just trying to figure out if I should hedge before the tournament starts or wait for a better opportunity during the middle of the tournament.

frugalgambler · 11-14-13, 01:34 AM

I have no line for the Davis Cup. And even if I had I would not bet on it right now since there is no info on Tipsarevic. Berdych actually won the Davis Cup with Stepanek. They are both good Davis Cup players. This is not a tournament but a best of 5 so each match can be a deciding match. I do not see how you will be able to hedge easily. If Tipsarevic is injured, and that is a big if, it will come down to the doubles match, which appears to be a coinflip. If not, Djoker wins two and Tipsarevic should beat Stepanek at home and Serbia wins.

tipsadontlikehim · 11-14-13, 03:16 AM

Serbia odds was 1.35 or something back in september, now 1.58 on Pinnacle

Troicki will play ?

ok just kidding

tipsadontlikehim · 11-14-13, 03:19 AM

I'm surprised Serbia chose clay... let's suppose Tipsa plays, playing Stepanek on clay would be better for him ... ok last year he needed 8/6 in the fifth on clay but Stepanek 2013 has been declining big time

On fast hardcourt i honestly like Stepanek chances

MiddleMan · 11-14-13, 05:04 AM

I believe news has just filtered through that Tipsarevic won't play. Line movement is going crazy. Odds were out to $1.65 on Serbia on Pinnacle before the market went offline. A lot of agencies around still offering $3+ on Czech.

tipsadontlikehim · 11-14-13, 05:40 AM

tipsa is a wimp

MiddleMan · 11-14-13, 06:13 AM

$1.72 now on Sportsbet.

addictedto · 11-14-13, 11:13 AM

Hey guys, it seems Dusan Lajovic will be playing instead of Tipsi. Lajovic is not that bad and he played a lot on hard recent weeks. Imo he got some chances against Stepanek.

poet · 11-14-13, 11:33 AM

OK, now I'm confused. Will the matches be on hard court or clay? One guy here suggests clay.

addictedto · 11-14-13, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by poet

OK, now I'm confused. Will the matches be on hard court or clay? One guy here suggests clay.

You got Internet right? Go to daviscup.com

poet · 11-14-13, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by addictedto

You got Internet right? Go to daviscup.com

Actually, no. I'm a shaman in the Andes who is telepathically channeling your threads. So can you help a brother out?

tipsadontlikehim · 11-14-13, 12:14 PM

it's indoor hardcourt mate, i was just saying i'm surprised they didn't chose clay to neutralize stepanek

since Vesely is a very good clay player

poet · 11-14-13, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

it's indoor hardcourt mate, i was just saying i'm surprised they didn't chose clay to neutralize stepanek

since Vesely is a very good clay player

Thank you, tipsadontlikehim. I will make an offering to the gods on your behalf. One last question about your name. Do you mean you don't like Tipsa (as in Tipsa: don't like him.) Or do you mean, "Tipsa doesn't like him," in which case who is "him"?

tipsadontlikehim · 11-14-13, 12:26 PM

old story ! tipsa...idon'tlikehim! used to don't like this guy for retiring all the time !! now i actually don't mind him but i've been using this nickname on old forums so i kept it

poet · 11-14-13, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

I have no line for the Davis Cup. And even if I had I would not bet on it right now since there is no info on Tipsarevic. Berdych actually won the Davis Cup with Stepanek. They are both good Davis Cup players. This is not a tournament but a best of 5 so each match can be a deciding match. I do not see how you will be able to hedge easily. If Tipsarevic is injured, and that is a big if, it will come down to the doubles match, which appears to be a coinflip. If not, Djoker wins two and Tipsarevic should beat Stepanek at home and Serbia wins.

Well Frug I can hedge and did hedge but my dilemma is not over. I've already hedged against any potential losses, so the only question that remains is, do I hedge even more so that I at least win 500 (no matter who wins) or let my bet on the Czechs ride and see if I can win 1200, if they somehow pull this out? In other words, what are the Czech's chances here, in the singles and doubles match? Thanks.

tipsadontlikehim · 11-14-13, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by poet

Well Frug I can hedge and did hedge but my dilemma is not over. I've already hedged against any potential losses, so the only question that remains is, do I hedge even more so that I at least win 500 (no matter who wins) or let my bet on the Czechs ride and see if I can win 1200, if they somehow pull this out? In other words, what are the Czech's chances here, in the singles and doubles match? Thanks.

Djokovic should bring 2 points
The Czech should win the doubles, Stepanek + Berdych, very strong team.
Berdych should beat Lajovic, so it's 2/2

Deciding point between Stepanek (or Rosol ?) and Lajovic.... so yeah I like the Czech chances really.

poet · 11-14-13, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

Djokovic should bring 2 points
The Czech should win the doubles, Stepanek + Berdych, very strong team.
Berdych should beat Lajovic, so it's 2/2

Deciding point between Stepanek (or Rosol ?) and Lajovic.... so yeah I like the Czech chances really.

Thanks, don't like Tips.