Taking Murray -5 Games + Under 38 vs Wawrinka today

[MagicDiceFlow]

I don't think Wawrinka has it in him to follow that big win against Berdych with another solid effort against Murray. If he's lucky, he'll win a set at the most. I think Murray will be ready for this match. Murray played down to his competition against Istomin, the same thing won't happen again. An interesting stat I noticed about Murray while I was calculating his matches in the past grand slams on hardcourts:

During the Australian & US Open of the last year, against players outside of the top four, Murray has covered the 5 games spread in ten of 11 matches. That's a strong 10-1 record vs a 5 games spread on hardcourt slams the past year. When he loses a set, it will be close but he almost always follows it up with a 6-1 6-2 type drubbing the following sets to cover the games spread.

Wawrinka looked impressive against Berdych but like many players outside the top five, following that big win up with another win over one of the big fours is a monumental task. The mental fortitude just isnt there. I see Wawrinka coming out flat for this match and Murray will not want to mess around with another four/five setter when the match against Djokovic is looming this weekend.


Take Murray -5 Games and Under 38 .......Best of Luck.

[MagicDiceFlow]

^^^^^^^Those are single bets, not a parlay to clarify ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[AceKingHigh]

$2k play? or small one?

Straights? or parlay ?

[AceKingHigh]

Hhahaha was just asking before thread refreshed lol , gotcha

[MagicDiceFlow]

$500 each on the plays.

I made $1400 in plays I posted earlier on the baseball side for those that tailed.

[AceKingHigh]

Nice! haven't saw your Baseball thread... maybe start a single thread for all sports? NFL starting today got anything good?

[MagicDiceFlow]

Nice! haven't saw your Baseball thread... maybe start a single thread for all sports? NFL starting today got anything good?

I dont do NFL much. College football is easier to beat. Once in a while, I'll bet a college game, only live though in the 3rd qtr and on.

Mainly, I just stick to my strengths in tennis and MLB.

[AceKingHigh]

Cool Good luck!

[Vinnie Paz]

I am seeing under 39(not 38), at plus money, as well as andy -5.
Ill jump aboard on both.

[Hardcoar]

Ladbrokes offering -7.5 @ 5.5. Bet while stock lasts!

[Hardcoar]

Care to share some odds, MoDaFk?

[joco]

U sharp fuller. Thanks for those MLB tt last nite

[secret007]

I am thinking the other way.. wawrinka has some weapons to go against murray and murray has been known to have lapses during the game. Over 39 looks tempting, haven't pulled the trigger..

[jjgold]

Murray seems to play big when he has to

Wawrinka is dangerous but usually loses against the GOP guns

I think he battled Joker aways back

Dice great write up

[AceKingHigh]

Under @ 39.5 on pinnacle.

[matt1216]

Good luck MDF

[Wulfman14]

murray hasnt played his best yet at this tourney. the question is will he elevate his game to beat stan soundly. i dont think murray will win in straight sets. both serve well. over for me.

nice write up though MDF.

[Hardcoar]

Pinnacle has anything between 37.5 and 41.5 on offer so that post seems pretty redundant, don't you think?

[Hardcoar]

Also the HC is much more to my liking than the under if anyone cares.

[ParlayininHTown]

Also the HC is much more to my liking than the under if anyone cares.

I don't care, but I agree.

Of course, I felt the same way about Ferrer yesterday ... and we saw what happened there.

[Sport_Fish]

So in 13 meetings, Stan has only lost to Murray in straights twice.

I dont like the bet - I think with Stan playing likely the best tennis of his career, its good enough to take a set and make another or two a close contest, which pushes the over, and also endangers the Murray spread.

Only a complete meltdown by Stan will cash this, but it seems you are expecting just that.

[EaglesPhan36]

Those stats about Murray covering a -5 against players outside the top four is pretty irrelevant considering that of the nine matches not played against Djokovic or Federer this year in the Australian & US Open, he's been playing guys ranked outside the top 50 in a lot of those.

I also think you must not have watched the Istomin match because Istomin played some pretty good tennis against Murray, so I don't think he played down to him at all.

I also disagree on the "big win" and flop angle. This isn't some retread who has been around for decades or some young buck who stepped up and got his first big win. Berdych also isn't like beating Nadal or Djokovic at this stage. That would constitute a huge win. We're talking about a top ten player who can beat top ten players. That match against Djokovic in Australia proved that.

[secret007]

Ouch O/U is set at 39.5 and juiced heavily as well, making it tough to justify betting this.

GL to your bet MDF, you lost a lot of value betting U 38 though, its +140 now.

[poet]

Those stats about Murray covering a -5 against players outside the top four is pretty irrelevant considering that of the nine matches not played against Djokovic or Federer this year in the Australian & US Open, he's been playing guys ranked outside the top 50 in a lot of those.

I also think you must not have watched the Istomin match because Istomin played some pretty good tennis against Murray, so I don't think he played down to him at all.

I also disagree on the "big win" and flop angle. This isn't some retread who has been around for decades or some young buck who stepped up and got his first big win. Berdych also isn't like beating Nadal or Djokovic at this stage. That would constitute a huge win. We're talking about a top ten player who can beat top ten players. That match against Djokovic in Australia proved that.

Thanks for talking some sense, EP. Murray could very well thrash WaWa but it won't be cause Wa Wa isn't going all out.

[TennisProFrance]

Wawrinka has always been a difficult match up for Murray. Who knows what will happen this evening but I doubt it will be straight forward.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for talking some sense, EP. Murray could very well thrash WaWa but it won't be cause Wa Wa isn't going all out.

IMO, this match is close or a blowout more dependent on Wawrinka's concentration level/ability to maintain consistency for the duration over what Murray does. Murray does what he does over the course of a match. He rarely is going to switch things up too much. He's going to engage in rallies and force Wawrinka to outwork him for points and make big shots. Most guys can't do that enough over 4-5 sets to beat Murray which is why he is so good.

Weather today should be conducive to both players not struggling with fitness. Low humidity and temps in the 70s. Wind will be the hardest to deal with, but both guys have shown the ability to cope this week.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Those stats about Murray covering a -5 against players outside the top four is pretty irrelevant considering that of the nine matches not played against Djokovic or Federer this year in the Australian & US Open, he's been playing guys ranked outside the top 50 in a lot of those.

I also think you must not have watched the Istomin match because Istomin played some pretty good tennis against Murray, so I don't think he played down to him at all.

I also disagree on the "big win" and flop angle. This isn't some retread who has been around for decades or some young buck who stepped up and got his first big win. Berdych also isn't like beating Nadal or Djokovic at this stage. That would constitute a huge win. We're talking about a top ten player who can beat top ten players. That match against Djokovic in Australia proved that.

It wasnt just against players outside the top fifty. He covered the 5 games spread against Berdych, Cilic, and Raonic at last year's US OPEN when he won the title in addition to spanking the players outside the top fifty. When he loses a set, he almost always come back and pound them in the next sets to cover the spread. Don't see how you can say that's irrelevant:

08.09.12	1/2	Andy Murray	Tomas Berdych	5-7, 6-2, 6-1, 7-67		match details
05.09.12	1/4	Andy Murray	Marin Cilic	3-6, 7-64, 6-2, 6-0		match details
03.09.12	4th round	Andy Murray	Milos Raonic	6-4, 6-4, 6-2		match details

Also, about Wawrinka nearly beating Djokovic. What has he done on hardcourts after that near win besides the Berdych match? He lost to Paire in the first round at Toronto and Robredo in the second round in Cincy. I like Stan and his game, I'm just saying that he's good for a big win and a letdown the following matches.

[EaglesPhan36]

We'll see how it goes, I don't really have a dog in this fight as long as Wawrinka wins a set.

I just think some of those stats you are talking about are misleading. You make it sound like he was covering -5 against quality opponent after quality opponent which was not the case. Those guys outside the top four he played that were ranked anything substantial were a minority of his matches. 8/11 matches in those two Slams this year he faced guys ranked outside the Top 20, most of them well outside. Las year's US Open was really the exception to these where he faced a lot of seeded players. Most of these four Slams we're looking at, he faced a small amount of seeded players/guys in the Top 20.

I disagree with your assessment on Wawrinka. You seemed to be comparing him to guys like Rosol and Stakhovsky who pulled off complete stunners. His win over Berdych was not that large an upset. #10 over #5 is not earth shattering, especially considering Berdych's penchant for flopping in Slams. His chances of showing up flat IMO were very small. He may shrink in the end, but I expected a good fight like this to start.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Well guys , looks like the scared defensive Murray of 2011 showed up today. Putting up nothing but lobs and balls for Wawrinka to pound. I was wrong about this one. Wawrinka came out firing on all cylinders.



Sorry about the loss.

[Chaz22]

Well guys , looks like the scared defensive Murray of 2011 showed up today. Putting up nothing but lobs and balls for Wawrinka to pound. I was wrong about this one. Wawrinka came out firing on all cylinders.



Sorry about the loss.

your almost always wrong...

[horja1]

Well guys , looks like the scared defensive Murray of 2011 showed up today. Putting up nothing but lobs and balls for Wawrinka to pound. I was wrong about this one. Wawrinka came out firing on all cylinders.



Sorry about the loss.

the under might still hit

[jjgold]

Dice get em next pick

Good write ups and keep up good work

[MagicDiceFlow]

The Under hit fellas .......sweet , we push!

[strat1x]

lol murray is a bum

[edabramov]

your almost always wrong...

True. Everytime this guy says to pound something, do the opposite.