WTA New Haven, Pavlyuchenkova vs Cirstea

frugalgambler · 08-17-13, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by Pinocchio

While I am not as confident that Cirstea will lose as I am that Vinci will win her first round match, I must say that Pavlyuchenkova has a way better chance of winning than her odds would indicate (2.5 at Pinnacle).

That automatically means I need to put some dough on Pavlyuchenkova right now.

I do not understand your logic. Cristea is having a great hardcourt season, losing to quality players only,and she has just had a week of rest. Pav has been on a major decline ever since the start of clay season and I know that she is having mental problems. I'll probably take Cirstea's game-line when it becomes available.

Pinocchio · 08-17-13, 11:33 PM

I do not understand your logic. Cristea is having a great hardcourt season, losing to quality players only,and she has just had a week of rest. Pav has been on a major decline ever since the start of clay season and I know that she is having mental problems. I'll probably take Cirstea's game-line when it becomes available.

Then why not bet your house on her? Seems like you can't lose this...

frugalgambler · 08-18-13, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by Pinocchio

Then why not bet your house on her? Seems like you can't lose this...

LOL, now are you being silly. There is no such thing as a sure bet, especially in WTA. Cirstea might get her herpes flare up or she maybe on a period or have a fight with her coach the night before. Still, I like Cirstea's odds. I have been reading some interviews, and I know that Pav has been on a major bend, like crying after her losses, fighting with her entourage, etc. She had a good start of the year, which is why her odds are still so high.

Pinocchio · 08-18-13, 01:44 AM

So in other words, you agree with me that Pavlyuchenkova is worth a shot?

One error though, I mistakenly thought Vinci was playing Medina Garrigues. She's playing Suarez Navarro whom she has a losing record against.

frugalgambler · 08-18-13, 01:54 AM

No, I already put a unit on Cirstea's ML. I think right now she wins at least 2 out of 3 times vs Pav. So -170 odds is a pretty good value.

Pinocchio · 08-19-13, 11:36 AM

I was gonna say: my condolences, frugalgambler...

...but as usual when I spot a good bet, in the end I collect nothing.

I'm not aware of any decent books that pay after the first ball is served, are there any?
I might have to join one of those...