Fox Mulder's tennis picks 03/05/13

**FoxMulder** · 05-08-13, 03:51 PM

Ivanovic-Robson match is not over yet but unless one of them withdraws, over 20.5 is a winner already.

That makes 19-13

**FoxMulder** · 05-09-13, 05:26 AM

Gimeno Traver - Andujar , Gimeno-Traver @ 2.37 Void - Gimeno Traver retired
Tomas Berdych - Kevin Anderson, over 22.5 @ 1.83 Won

I expect Kevin Anderson to beat Berdych today

20-13

**FoxMulder** · 05-09-13, 08:34 AM

Tommy Haas v David Ferrer , Haas @ 2.75 Lost

Ferrer is in such terrible form, Haas quite the contrary. Despite the fact that Ferrer is playing at home, I like Haas taking this one.

20-14

**FoxMulder** · 05-09-13, 01:58 PM

Between Haas and Federer, lost 200 bucks.. Frak both of them

**fitguy67** · 05-10-13, 08:19 AM

you're seem to be doing well, fox...

BIG=important suggestion...keep track of % and/or UNITS, as well as W-L record...$/units are where it's at, W% just a side-statistic (and very often a deceiving one...see http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...uaranteed.html )

i like what I see so far...you're not a big chalk-eater and look for value, so ull see your results in the $/units you generate...you can keep a WL tally but wouldn't worry about the win% as long as the $ are increasing

**Hardcoar** · 05-10-13, 09:15 AM

People also seem never to have heard of ROI on these boards...

**fitguy67** · 05-10-13, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

People also seem never to have heard of ROI on these boards...

I'm so happy when people keep track of net $/units...it's a bit much to expect them to "really do it up right" by keeping a tally of risked $/units as well

but you're right: the key figure...indicating the "efficiency" of the operation is what i call the "yield"...that is, the "net" divided by the "risked" (expressed as a %)...is this what you guyz are always calling ROI (which I assume stands for "return on investment"?

BTW, i like to carry the record-keeping just one (but very useful) step further...by keeping a running tally of the "targeted" (ie. the "to win" amounts that accompany each and every "risk" amount)...cuz then u can always calculate the overall average odds as "targeted divided by risked...plus one" (for decimal)...a very nice summary figure to have to complete the picture

...

**Hardcoar** · 05-10-13, 11:29 AM

Yield and ROI are synonyms, and can be expressed in various ways. I was personally referring to the method described in your post, however: Yes!

You're right though: Simply listing number of wins and losses is utterly pointless. Unless it's a (x>1)/0 type of figure of course.

I guess I could phrase that in a better way somehow but doubtlessly you know exactly what I mean.

**FoxMulder** · 05-10-13, 07:55 PM

Thanks for your opinions folks.

It's not easy to keep track of profit (or RoI) when I'm placing 40 bets a day spread over tennis, football and basketball, most of them live. Good idea to keep track of that "here", simply can not afford time. Doesn't mean I don't keep track of it at all.

Nevertheless, thats' not why I'm posting those tips. What's more meaningful for me is to provide good insight to those who are seeking for value plays. I'm not here for competition, collecting points, etc. I'm not posting all my bets here, just the ones I think may benefit you or give you a fresh perspective. Hence W-L tracking is as a measure of accuracy and reliability as a tipster. How much money I'm making out of those plays is totally my business.

**Hardcoar** · 05-11-13, 05:28 AM

You don't ever track live bets, to be frank.

**fitguy67** · 05-11-13, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by FoxMulder

Thanks for your opinions folks.

It's not easy to keep track of profit (or RoI) when I'm placing 40 bets a day spread over tennis, football and basketball, most of them live. Good idea to keep track of that "here", simply can not afford time. Doesn't mean I don't keep track of it at all.

Nevertheless, thats' not why I'm posting those tips. What's more meaningful for me is to provide good insight to those who are seeking for value plays. I'm not here for competition, collecting points, etc. I'm not posting all my bets here, just the ones I think may benefit you or give you a fresh perspective. Hence W-L tracking is as a measure of accuracy and reliability as a tipster. How much money I'm making out of those plays is totally my business.

that's exactly the correct attitude, pal...put the $ first

I've noticed that the picks u make bear the marks of a value-hunter not the picks of someone suffering from what I call WPF (Win Percentage Fascination)...but because you were only reporting the W-L, i feared that it just might start swaying your picks in the direction of the "safer" (ie. higher win% but generally lower value) to keep the WPF'd "peanut gallery" here happy...

Good to know that your focus is maximizing $...not impressing the majority of sbr-kiddies suffereing from WPF...

keep 'em coming

**FoxMulder** · 05-11-13, 05:40 PM

S. Williams v M. Sharapova , Sharapova @ 2.75

Serena's lower back injury problem is back. First Medina, then Errani almost had her. She won't be able to stand put and return versus Sharapova. Sharapova will make Williams run for her money which I'm confident Williams is not physically or mentally fit to respond in fashion. I'm siding with Sharapova here, she was consistent throughout the tournament. You may also want to try Sharapova +3.5 @ 1.80

Maria Teresa Torro-Flor v Lesia Tsurenko, Torro Flor @ 1.83

I'm not a fan of Tsurenko, she can't hold onto her service game, too many unforced errors and double faults. When she does, that's always against a considerably weaker opponent. Her first serve always faulty, second serve does not worth a damn. Torro Flor is a better player and far better clay courter. The player with less faults shall win and I expect Torro Flor to make less errors than Tsurenko tomorrow.

Rest of the matches tomorrow don't offer high enough odds to bet on. You may choose to bet on the favorites and get some return there. Contrary to ATP and WTA Madrid, I don't expect many surprises on the ATP/WTA Rome front tomorrow.

Good luck

**Hardcoar** · 05-11-13, 05:54 PM

Are you saying you were expecting upsets in Madrid?

**FoxMulder** · 05-12-13, 12:57 AM

Oudin over Hampton & Davis over Johansson looks good. There is a huge last minute odds shift too. Davis should take Madrid's revenge from Johansson. Also like Soler-Espinosa over Muguruza.

**hougigo** · 05-12-13, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by FoxMulder

Oudin over Hampton & Davis over Johansson looks good. There is a huge last minute odds shift too. Davis should take Madrid's revenge from Johansson. Also like Soler-Espinosa over Muguruza.

That's what I was looking at (hampton game)
Oudin hasn't been playing good lately and Hampton has been doing quite well, but Oudin has 2 games over Hampton's none H2H.
No play for me... because games like this usually eff me over

**FoxMulder** · 05-12-13, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

That's what I was looking at (hampton game)
Oudin hasn't been playing good lately and Hampton has been doing quite well, but Oudin has 2 games over Hampton's none H2H.
No play for me... because games like this usually eff me over

H2H is one of the last things I look at @ WTA tennis, unless very, very recent. I look at the previous match stats and try to derive my predictions from there

**hougigo** · 05-12-13, 02:25 AM

What favorites do you like tomorrow? I have an open parlay and i'm looking to fill spots
I took Gulbis already (should have no problem) and Gaquet

**innn** · 05-12-13, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by FoxMulder

Oudin over Hampton & Davis over Johansson looks good. There is a huge last minute odds shift too. Davis should take Madrid's revenge from Johansson. Also like Soler-Espinosa over Muguruza.

How confident you on Davis , Johansson has thrashed her recnetly?

**FoxMulder** · 05-12-13, 02:42 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

What favorites do you like tomorrow? I have an open parlay and i'm looking to fill spots
I took Gulbis already (should have no problem) and Gaquet

Early to say, i may post some plays later today

**FoxMulder** · 05-12-13, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by innn

How confident you on Davis , Johansson has thrashed her recnetly?

That may not matter, e.g. Oudin got thrashed by Scheepers last week in Madrid, scalped her yesterday in Rome. This is wta tennis. Only thing that is certain about wta tennis is there is going to be a winner. Both Johansson and Davis are unreliable. Davis seems to have served and returned a bit better yesterday. Johansson have better clay experience though

**FoxMulder** · 05-12-13, 04:45 AM

2/11 break point conversion for Davis. She should choose another profession.

**Hardcoar** · 05-12-13, 05:41 AM

Really? I think the WTA suits her aptly!

**FoxMulder** · 05-12-13, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Really? I think the WTA suits her aptly!

Agreed. My picks were not accurate today, besides Oudin play.

Will focus on football and basketball for some time. I seem to be doing well thanks to Fenerbahce, Barcelona and Montepaschi Siena.

**FoxMulder** · 05-15-13, 01:19 AM

Tough matches today. Possible 3-setters (or safely over 22.5):

Tsonga - Janowicz
Paire - Benneteau
Youzhny - Simon
Troicki - Gulbis
Ramos - Kohlschreiber

Predicted winners are bolded.

**horja1** · 05-15-13, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by FoxMulder

Youzhny - Simon

This is the time to fade Simon in this tourney

**Sharp Snake** · 05-15-13, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by horja1

This is the time to fade Simon in this tourney

Why?

**FoxMulder** · 05-15-13, 02:57 AM

Simon has the spirit of a fighter. Only spirit Youzhny has is a bottle of vodka.

**FoxMulder** · 05-15-13, 03:08 AM

Carreno Busta v Garcia Lopez in Bordeaux challenger. That is another one that may go 3 sets. Siding with Carreno Busta to win

**CaptainOmar111** · 05-15-13, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by horja1

This is the time to fade Simon in this tourney

+10000000000000000000 !!! I saw him yesterday and he was too bad to imagine !!!

**horja1** · 05-15-13, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by Sharp Snake

Why?

made some nice money fading him lately ... and because he plays WTA tennis

too bad Youzhny couldn't win 1 of those 6 set points in the first set

**Sharp Snake** · 05-15-13, 01:10 PM

Spot on.

**FoxMulder** · 05-22-13, 01:08 AM

Along with Haase and Fognini, will try Reister (vs Volandri) and Kovalik (vs Darcis) @ RG qualies today.

**davopnz** · 05-22-13, 02:10 AM

wait please dont tell me you're betting on robin haase

**FoxMulder** · 05-22-13, 04:44 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

wait please dont tell me you're betting on robin haase

Against Isner, I'd bet on my grandmother to win, despite her current medical condition. god rest her soul.

**Dmoneytx** · 05-22-13, 09:03 AM

What's up Fox?? I hope you are doing well sir

I agree with you on the American tennis. It is crap awful. The women are always such a crap shoot, and our men at the moment are not achieving like they should be. It is sad. And yes, Harrison is a joke, which is why I started my year long fade Harrison thread. Well, I always wish you the BOL in all your wagers man. Keep up the good work...