Fox Mulder's tennis picks 03/05/13

[FoxMulder]

ATP Munich
Janko Tipsarevic - Daniel Brands, Brands @ 2.61 (1) Won
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Victor Troicki, over 21.5 games @ 1.80 Won
WTA Oeiras
Romina Oprandi - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Oprandi @ 1.83 Lost
Carla Suarez Navarro - Kaia Kanepi, Suarez-Navarro @ 1.72 Won

ATP Oeiras
Andreas Seppi - Tommy Robredo, Robredo @ 1.72 Lost

Challenger Johannesburg
Vasek Pospisil - Mate Pavic , Pavic @ 3.40 (2) Lost

Challenger Ostrava
Andreas Haider-Maurer -Jiri Vesely, Vesely @ 2.00 (3) Won



(1) Tipsarevic injured himself against Zemlja today. Brands destroyed Monfils. Brands should win easily if Tipsarevic does not retire.

(2) Pavic is of unknown quantity but he did very well against Amritraj,Alves and Ram. Pospisil is not reliable, especially his returns are awful."If" he serves with accuracy he may win. But that is a big "if" There's a lot of value in taking Pavic small stake.


(3) Jiri Vesely is an up an comer, twice bet against him and he trashed his opponents both times, no matter how experienced they were. He always made me money and he's at home (Czech Rep) on his favorite surface. Always bet on him though he was a bit shaky in the first set against J. Pospisil yesterday. That's probably first set has paused twice (once when he was serving 4-5 down) and during tie-break (3-3) due to light showers. Pospisil had a breather and managed to take the first set, got destroyed in second and third.


Good luck

[gators0708]

I like Brands over Tipsy as well, good luck!

[Ron29301]

I like Brands over Tipsy as well, good luck!

Just snagged it at +160. Lets Roll fellas. I love value plays.

[FoxMulder]

Not sure what the frak is happening here. Pavic losing to Pospisil is explainable, it was a long shot and Pospisil served 15 aces. Oprandi losing to pavlyuchenkova after the bagel set is a total bust. Vesely took the first and bitterly losing the second. Now Suarez-Navarro is 0-2 down in the first set and does not look like winning at all.

What a frakking day.

[FoxMulder]

After a loooonnggg rain delay, Vesely took the final set. I love it when a parlay comes together

3-2 so far..

[FoxMulder]

4-3 what a bust!

[FoxMulder]

Semis at ATP, final at WTA.. Tough matches today

ATP Munich
Daniel Brands -Philipp Kohlschreiber , over 2.5 sets @ 2.37 Won
Tommy Haas - Ivan Dodig , over 2.5 sets @ 2.75 Lost

ATP Oeiras
Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka , over 20.5 games @ 2.00 Won

WTA Oeiras
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Carla Suarez Navarro, Suarez Navarro @ 1.57 Lost


Challenger Ostrava

Miroslav Mecir - Jiri Vesely, Vesely @ 1.66 Won

Watching Kohlschreiber vs absent-minded Korolev and injured Troicki, not convinced that he'll beat Brands in straight sets. Brands may even win but I think they both will have a set. Same goes for Carreno-Busta after seeing "Stan the man" is not the man he was in Monte Carlo. Carreno-Busta has a fighting chance and expect him to win a set or go the distance on one of the sets at the least.

Staying away from Ferrer-Seppi match due to unpredictability and ATP/WTA Madrid qualifying rounds as they are not televised.

good luck

[Ron29301]

They got my man Dan at +160 again. Lol. Love it. GL tomorrow buddy.

[FoxMulder]

They got my man Dan at +160 again. Lol. Love it. GL tomorrow buddy.

Good pick, definitely worth a try. Same goes for Carreno-Busta

[FoxMulder]

Damn you Carla, how could you lose to that fat arse Pavlyuchenkova?

[Ron29301]

Damn you Carla, how could you lose to that fat arse Pavlyuchenkova?

In straight!!! I went with the winner of 4 now 5. The + money has done me well up until now.

[FoxMulder]

3-2 today, not happy. Carla and Ivan have let me down.

[FoxMulder]

Today's picks

ATP Munich

Philipp Kohlschreiber - Tommy Haas , Haas @ 1.50 Won

ATP Oeiras

David Ferrer - Stanislas Wawrinka , over 22.5 games @ 2.00 Lost

WTA Madrid

Ayumi Morita - Sorana Cirstea , Morita @ 1.83 Void - Morita retired
Elena Vesnina - Marion Bartoli , Vesnina @ 1.66 Void - Vesnina retired
Klara Zakopalova - Maria Kirilenko, Kirilenko @ 1.57 Void - Zakopalova retired
Roberta Vinci - Varvara Lepchenko , Lepchenko @ 3.00 (1) Won
Lucie Safarova - Ekaterina Makarova , Safarova @ 1.61 Lost

ATP Madrid

Julien Benneteau - Gilles Simon, Simon @ 1.44 Won
Bernard Tomic - Radek Stepanek, Stepanek @ 1.66 Won

(1) Roberta Vinci has picked up a right shoulder injury in Stuttgart vs Shvedova, she lost the game. Better to keep a keen eye on that match, Lepchenko has a recent FED cup victory over Vinci on clay. If Vinci is indeed feeling discomfort, Lepchenko has a good chance to win.

After disasterous Davis cup matches in Argentina, Simon found his form in Bucurest. He should beat Benneteau today. I'm also not convinced that Tomic is a suitable player for clay. Stepanek had a relatively good tournament in Munich although lost to Troicki (who is in good shape). Tomic has not played for 2 weeks. I'm siding with Stepanek.
Good luck

[FoxMulder]

Additional picks

Challenger Roma qualification

Maxime Teixeira - Bastian Knittel, Knittel @ 1.72 Lost
Dustin Brown - Andrey Golubev, Brown @ 1.83 Lost

Challenger Ostrava (Final)
Steve Darcis - Jiri Vesely, Vesely @ 1.83 Won

ATP Madrid Qualification

Sergey Stakhovski - Santiago Giraldo, Stakhovski @ 2.10 Lost

Michael Llodra - Robin Haase ,Haase @ 1.72 Won

[ohumad]

I like Morita and Vesnina too, so sorry lol. BOL to us.

[FoxMulder]

I like Morita and Vesnina too, so sorry lol. BOL to us.

Both have retired, wtf???

[Ron29301]

"(1) Roberta Vinci has picked up a right shoulder injury in Stuttgart vs Shvedova, she lost the game. Better to keep a keen eye on that match, Lepchenko has a recent FED cup victory over Vinci on clay. If Vinci is indeed feeling discomfort, Lepchenko has a good chance to win."

You may have some good value here buddy. I'll take a stab.

[ohumad]

Both have retired, wtf???

I also had Mathieu today who retired

[FoxMulder]

Wow, challengers and WTF tennis is killing me

[FoxMulder]

Zakopalova retired too. Damn, Kirilenko had it

[FoxMulder]

"(1) Roberta Vinci has picked up a right shoulder injury in Stuttgart vs Shvedova, she lost the game. Better to keep a keen eye on that match, Lepchenko has a recent FED cup victory over Vinci on clay. If Vinci is indeed feeling discomfort, Lepchenko has a good chance to win."

You may have some good value here buddy. I'll take a stab.

I have Lepchenko @ 1st set ,wanted to make sure that parlay pays off after so many withdrawals.

Lepchenko is cruising so far, 0-3 up in the first set.

[Hangoverblack]

If Vinci retires I will go nuts.

I have two books, and I put this play in the one that requires two full sets.

She is about to get served breakfast. I hope she battles it out

[FoxMulder]

Vinci is up 4-1 in the second. welcome to WTF tennis

[Hangoverblack]

Looks like the good guys take the third! Come on Lepchenko

[FoxMulder]

6-5 today, 13-10 in total. It's not good enough of a record. I usually hit 75%

I'll take a few days off to regroup. I may post some value plays here and there though .

[FoxMulder]

Keep an eye on McHale-Peng match tomorrow. McHale is very absent-minded, her game is full of unforced errors. Chinese discipline may prevail. Better to wage live

[FoxMulder]

ATP Madrid
Fabio Fognini v Mikhail Youzhny, Fognini @ 1.53 Lost
Joao Sousa v Benoit Paire, Sousa @ 3.25 Lost
Tommy Haas v Andreas Seppi , Haas @ 1.50 Won
Jeremy Chardy v Gilles Simon, Simon @ 1.53 Won
Viktor Troicki v Marcel Grannolers , Troicki @ 2.00 Won


PMS Madrid
Maria Teresa Torro-Flor v Marion Bartoli, Torro-Flor @ 1.72 Lost
Yaroslava Shvedova v Kirsten Flipkens , Shvedova @ 1.72 Won

[Pinocchio]

In my opinion almost all these matches from your last post are kind of 50:50. I'd be happy with 50% success rate, but it won't be enough to break even.

[FoxMulder]

Can't quite see your point.

I never put money on Bartoli and Youzhny so their opponents are logical picks for me. Who in the right mind would bet on them? They are absolutely crap players, has-beens. Shvedova v Flipkens is a close call, then again Shvedova is in better shape than the other. Haas v Seppi is a no-brainer unless smth goes very very wrong.

The only 2 picks I see risky here is Sousa vs Paire and Troicki vs Grannolers. watching Paire getting scalped vs Hanescu, I'm fairly confident he'll tank the match again. If Troicki is feeling fit after last week's injury, he's my favorite since he's been on fire for the last couple of weeks.

Rest of the matches don't offer enough value to bet on, unless another Robson vs Radwanska one-time-freak happens. Who would have seen that one coming?

[FoxMulder]

Why are they televising Torro-Flor v Bartoli instead of Shvedova v Flipkens? Do we have to watch that no-talent Bartoli holding her racquet like a hatchet and falling flat on her fat ass?

[FoxMulder]

Wow, Torro-Flor must be the bmost idiot player alive, not taking advantage of that double-faulting, unforced erroring, overzealous fat ass b!tch

[FoxMulder]

Fognini 5-4 up in the 3rd set, broken and lost at tie break.. To a lesser opponent to say the least.

[FoxMulder]

Gasquet lost the first set 5-7 to Traver. This tournament is full of surprises. There are no guarantees in tennis, tennis betting or any kind of betting for that matter.

[FoxMulder]

4-3 today, 17-13 total..Interesting.

[FoxMulder]

Ivanovic - Robson , over 20.5 games @ 1.90 Won
Mladenovic - Kirilenko, over 20.5 games @ 1.80 Won

I expect Robson to take a set at least, despite Ivanovic's great form. Mladenovic may even win.