This question has been asked and answered well at least several times, but I want to add one more thought to the discussion and see what anybody thinks about this.
This question often comes from newbies like me in some form or another: "If I work hard and develop a model (or system) that picks winners well enough to turn a profit, won't the online books just profile me, and realize I am costing them money and either ban me or limit me so heavily that it isn't worth my time?"
And many posters have answered, saying for example -- that if you get the right book, one for pros not for recreational bettors, and don't try to scam bonuses or circumvent limits by using multiple accounts and so on, then this shouldn't be a problem.
Another point often made is that the books at least to some degree balance the action so for them it is more about the vig than beating each individual bettor, so they still need the sharps to keep the volume up and they can still make money. And I am sure there have been other points made, but here is my thought.
If you were really sharp enough to think that a good book might be wanting to check you in this way -- what if you just played early, and of course this means you would be sticking to the lower limits that go with playing early -- for some this would be a problem but for many of us $500 is a big bet.
So if you did that and your method was straight forward i.e. you are picking the play that you are really going with, not something that you are going to hedge or fade later -- then if the book has you profiled as being that sharp, couldn't they also just use the information to shade their line or to allow a little exposure to your play?
I'm not saying that they would tail you outright, but if they had a list of sharps who make their plays early, then at the very least the book can take this info cumulatively under advisement as they proceed gathering action on that game. So you could actually be of some use to them and they could actually make some money off of you if you were that kind of sharp.
Thoughts?
This question often comes from newbies like me in some form or another: "If I work hard and develop a model (or system) that picks winners well enough to turn a profit, won't the online books just profile me, and realize I am costing them money and either ban me or limit me so heavily that it isn't worth my time?"
And many posters have answered, saying for example -- that if you get the right book, one for pros not for recreational bettors, and don't try to scam bonuses or circumvent limits by using multiple accounts and so on, then this shouldn't be a problem.
Another point often made is that the books at least to some degree balance the action so for them it is more about the vig than beating each individual bettor, so they still need the sharps to keep the volume up and they can still make money. And I am sure there have been other points made, but here is my thought.
If you were really sharp enough to think that a good book might be wanting to check you in this way -- what if you just played early, and of course this means you would be sticking to the lower limits that go with playing early -- for some this would be a problem but for many of us $500 is a big bet.
So if you did that and your method was straight forward i.e. you are picking the play that you are really going with, not something that you are going to hedge or fade later -- then if the book has you profiled as being that sharp, couldn't they also just use the information to shade their line or to allow a little exposure to your play?
I'm not saying that they would tail you outright, but if they had a list of sharps who make their plays early, then at the very least the book can take this info cumulatively under advisement as they proceed gathering action on that game. So you could actually be of some use to them and they could actually make some money off of you if you were that kind of sharp.
Thoughts?
