Fair or foul?

[Justin7]

A sportsbook hangs Arizona -2 on an Arena Football game. All the other sportsbooks copy it.

Player bets Arizona -2 everywhere. Some books void the bet, citing "obvious error".

Do obvious errors include when a book copies bad numbers without doing their own homework?

[chase hardy]

No fair at all in my opinion.

[mmike032]

foul

[custer]

I think all bets up until 7:47:48AM should be honored, all after that time canceled.

I would feel the opposite if it was a big market sport (ie all bets canceled).

edited to add 2nd sentence

[Frank]

It was definately a bad line, without a doubt.

Looks like the player took a shot at every book they could, kinda like you in your book with with the Harrah's properties.

Maybe it was you in this situation also.

Even the dumbest of square's could wake up look at the standings, see the records and say hmm Arizona -2 at home?

Unless there is mass injuries your bets should be cancelled. (I mean the player you are talking about)

[sharpcat]

I had this problem last week on a NASCAR match-up where the line opened with the wrong favorite 5dimes honored the bet and Carib canceled the bet citing a bad line.

I don't understand how one book can claim bad line on a bet that other books honor???

I am curious as to whether Bookmaker honored the bet since they were the ones who opened the line, how is it a bad line if the book they copied the line from honored the wagers that they received???

[Frank]

Everyone here knows it was a bad line.

It's each books decision whether they want to honor a bad line even though each and every one of them could and probably should cancel it.

This is what happens when only a couple bookmakers on the planet have a clue and everyone else copies.

1 mistake and BAM, Justin and his team of shot takers crawl out, take their shots, then start topics hoping the sheep will agree with them.

[durito]

pinnacle thinks it´s fair

[sharpcat]

Everyone here knows it was a bad line.

It's each books decision whether they want to honor a bad line even though each and every one of them could and probably should cancel it.

This is what happens when only a couple bookmakers on the planet have a clue and everyone else copies.

1 mistake and BAM, Justin and his team of shot takers crawl out, take their shots, then start topics hoping the sheep will agree with them.

I am no shot taker every book across the board was showing the exact same line when I made my bet.

How am I a shot taker?

The books offered me a bet and I accepted it because I felt it had value, isn't that the purpose of gambling? or am I supposed to only take wagers that I am going to lose?

How is a player supposed to know that 50 books all put up a bad line? this is no different than correlated parlays where the player has no idea of what the book considers correlated unless the book does not allow the wager in the first place.

[sharpcat]

Very few books have allowed me to cancel wagers after I made a mistake.

It should go both ways here.

[AimingHigh]

How is a player supposed to know that 50 books all put up a bad line? this is no different than correlated parlays where the player has no idea of what the book considers correlated unless the book does not allow the wager in the first place.

FOUL.

I think this is the critical point. If it's the market price, objectively assessed*, and you think the market's wrong, you bet it, and you're entitled to do so and get paid on that bet if it wins.

* Unless books publish a statement saying 'we copy all our lines from x', why should a player be expected to know that what looks like the market price isn't <really> the market price, but just a bunch of books copying one book's error?

[FreeFall]

FOUL, but we know that isn't how it works. It's not my fault the book doesn't do their homework when making a line. I have to do my homework when betting a line.

[Pareto]

If the book doesnt spot the error when it copies the line, how can they expect the player to do so?

[Frank]

I am no shot taker every book across the board was showing the exact same line when I made my bet.

How am I a shot taker?

The books offered me a bet and I accepted it because I felt it had value, isn't that the purpose of gambling? or am I supposed to only take wagers that I am going to lose?

How is a player supposed to know that 50 books all put up a bad line? this is no different than correlated parlays where the player has no idea of what the book considers correlated unless the book does not allow the wager in the first place.

Whoever it was that Justin is talking about pounded every book out there.

Whoever that was KNEW the number was a mistake.

THEY are the shot taker.

C'mon now, how many people pound openers in Arena Football?.......those who know when a game is over a touchdown off......

[sharpcat]

Whoever it was that Justin is talking about pounded every book out there.

Whoever that was KNEW the number was a mistake.

THEY are the shot taker.

C'mon now, how many people pound openers in Arena Football?.......those who know when a game is over a touchdown off......

How are you to know that the book does not have a reason to have set the line where they did?

I can understand a book copying another books line and mistakenly reversing the odds as an obvious error but when the entire market is offering the same number the bet needs to be honored.

If CRIS sets the line on a game and they mistakenly set it backwards but decide to honor the wager how can another book claim it as a bad line if the book that they copied the line from graded it as a fair bet?

[Frank]

Whoever started the barrage KNEW and took a shot.

Everyone else was steam chasing.

You have absolutely no claim in saying it WAS NOT a bad line.

Its not like the whole market was up and mature.

If an opener gets throttled, taken off board, and put back up EXACTLY 10 points off from the book that opened, you don't think thats an obvious line error?

[mrpooh]

There is a difference from posting a bad line and simply posting a line from someone else. If books are too stupid to make their own lines or at least check lines they receive, that is there fault. Anyone that was to take advantage should

[magynuck]

1 of the ways you determine a bad line is to compare it to other shops. When you see it at many shops you assume it is good since it is widely available. From what I have seen here some shops are letting it go and some are voiding.

[Thremp]

Should be honored.

[calm]

FOUL. When posting openers there is obviously a risk that the line isn't sharp. Books should do their homework, not cry when they get beat for being lazy.

[Stefan]

What was the correct line? I think it's important to know how bad this line was.

[Hareeba!]

What was the correct line? I think it's important to know how bad this line was.

what ever is the "correct" line ?

isn't it always just a matter of opinion ?
it's not a casino game with fixed probabilities


did they also void bets on those who took the other side at +2

[cloudagh]

I always thought the copycats should honor the line.

[Frank]

What was the correct line? I think it's important to know how bad this line was.

Posted opener -2

After a few hits to 2.5, 3, 3.5 it was taken down and reposted at -12

I am sure CRIS meant to open -12 and not -2

All of the books that opened their numbers in that time frame copied CRIS and got hit by the shot takers who knew it was way way off and a bad line or by the steam chasers who never have an opinion and just followed a running train.

[Justin7]

Posted opener -2

After a few hits to 2.5, 3, 3.5 it was taken down and reposted at -12

I am sure CRIS meant to open -12 and not -2

All of the books that opened their numbers in that time frame copied CRIS and got hit by the shot takers who knew it was way way off and a bad line or by the steam chasers who never have an opinion and just followed a running train.

Line has been hit the other way now. Moved from -12 to -11 and -10.5. Was -12 bad? Yes, but not as bad as -2. The fair line is about -8. I guess if you average the two you get a good line.

Utah Blaze opened at 4, moved to 2.5, and is now 5.5. Was 4, or 2.5 bad?

[Frank]

Line has been hit the other way now. Moved from -12 to -11 and -10.5. Was -12 bad? Yes, but not as bad as -2. The fair line is about -8. I guess if you average the two you get a good line.

Utah Blaze opened at 4, moved to 2.5, and is now 5.5. Was 4, or 2.5 bad?

For real Justin?

You are going really defend this as NOT a bad line?

You know the deal. Like 300-400 cents on the money line........

You know and understand -2 was a misprint.

All this thread shows is that there are very few books who even give a shit about this sport and very little talent on the other side especially in these smaller markets.

It also shows how there is no "Gambler's Code" anymore.

Don't cheat
Don't stiff
Don't blab
Don't take shots

It's so easy on the net to take shots when you don't gotta face the man to pick up your package, eh Justin?

[onlooker]

Fair.

You say the fair line is -8, so a line that is basically off by 6 points by your standards is OK to take a shot at it?

[durito]

who says he knows what the fair line is, have you read his modeling chapters in his book?

[onlooker]

who says he knows what the fair line is, have you read his modeling chapters in his book?

I skimmed through post 25 to fast, didn't catch the part he said a average of the two lines.

[durito]

justin thought a wnba line was off by 10pts yesterday, should he not have bet it? was it a mistake?

[Justin7]

For real Justin?

You are going really defend this as NOT a bad line?

You know the deal. Like 300-400 cents on the money line........

You know and understand -2 was a misprint.

All this thread shows is that there are very few books who even give a shit about this sport and very little talent on the other side especially in these smaller markets.

It also shows how there is no "Gambler's Code" anymore.

Don't cheat
Don't stiff
Don't blab
Don't take shots

It's so easy on the net to take shots when you don't gotta face the man to pick up your package, eh Justin?

It comes down to the book's rules. If they rely on "Obvious error", was it obvious? All 5 sportsbooks with the line up slowly adjusted the price based on action. The error was not obvious to any of the 5 books dealing it.

If there were an obvious error, I would expect the sportsbook to take the market down, put in the correct price. That didn't happen. Instead, all the books continued to take action and move in baby steps.

[Justin7]

who says he knows what the fair line is, have you read his modeling chapters in his book?

Ouch!

[onlooker]

Ouch!

Made me go read your post slower.

[durito]

Ouch!

That´s not really the point here.

If the whole board is -2 how are you supposed to know it´s bad even if your model says -22? You could be wrong.

This happened on an NBA total at cris-pinny a couple months ago. Cris opened, pinny copied, a few minutes later cris realized they failed and moved the line 10pts. Pinny wasn´t paying attention and left it up and then just canceled all the bets. These bets should stand or they should hire more competent line managers.

[Thremp]

In theory. But why be honest when you can just angleshoot everyone?