thank you for the suggestion, I do not think that is an efficient method at all and if you are doing that for at least the major sports like , NHL, NFL, CFL, MLB, NBA you would not be getting very accurate information on your game lines. I do not know about tennis and that may be the best way but I highly doubt it when the market in tennis is so all over the place and tons of different margins. but thanks anyway!
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We are talking tennis here and I am saying just the major markets. You can try BM and Pinny but include matchbook. You could also treat them as individual markets and see which one’s you can exploit. The key is to convert to the no vig line and the percentage. Do each book by itself, then hammer your edge where you find it if you truly believe it is always efficient. Or just use Pinny.Comment -
I dont really bet tennis but the odds here presented what I thought was a big opening but 1x makes me doubt that, not sure who is sharp here but if pinnacle is sharp on this, I am killing it with the exchange on these matches
It's important to judge the book that is making you doubt these prices, as you say. 1x is a known slow payer at best let's say. It's not a risk for them to offer the best price if they have no intention of paying should you win. Thus you can ignore their pricing anomaly and conclude your be is great value. Had Pinny had +173, i'd be less likely to feel my bet was really great value tho I'd still be happy to bet a price that was beating Pinny.Comment -
pretty gosh darn good results for day 2, just need the volume much higher way way higher, I am creating all my own lines via api from pinny and bouncing that against margin for my net line, pretty awesome in line value but volume is funny, LMAO
Date Team League Close Bet At Bet Amt Result O/U Spread Actual CLV 9/4 Nationals MLB -105 115 0.87 L U9.5 4.71% 9/4 Pirates MLB 110 111 0.90 W O8.5 0.23% 9/4 Nationals MLB -118 -110 1.10 L 1.75% 9/4 Giants MLB 175 184 0.54 L 1.15% 9/5 Dominik Koepfer Tennis -127 -118 1.18 W 1.82% 9/5 Stefano Travaglia Tennis -256 -229 2.29 W 2.31% 9/5 Pedro Martinez Tennis -263 -237 2.37 L 2.13% 9/5 M Mmoh Tennis -204 -170 1.70 W 4.14% 9/5 Patriotas Soccer -154 -150 1.50 0.63% 9/5 Arevalo Tennis 264 316 0.32 L 3.43% Comment -
few more pending have not closed yet
9/5 Cardinals MLB 105 9/5 Botafogo Soccer -173 O1.5 9/5 Santa Fe Soccer -232 9/5 New York City Soccer -159 9/5 America de Cali Soccer -185 U2.5 Comment -
the thing is I can use that and run it 24 7 and can be betting 24 hours a day automated and never need to touch it, I think I can get 200-300 bets a day in and all should be +EV maybe a few squeakers that dont beat the margin but I say 80-90% are better than margin, but volume total numbers still might be the issue. it flat does not work to just find good lines, you got to automate it and just keep adjusting everything every 20 seconds or so via cron, pretty good shit, it reminds me kinda of the forex thingies a couple years pastComment -
the real trick is the algo I made to hunt the specific things since they dont use rotation, that is the kick ass part, it finds the actual game and will bounce it if 3 or 4 out 5 or 6 things dont line up and wont bet it, but if they line up it checks it every 10 seconds and kicks bad lines out. pretty awesome really. anyway I will update again if anything comes of it but reality it has probably reached its peak, volume I guess will be in the 2 or 3 btc a day volume and it wont take bets on anything over 1 hour from close due to the volatile markets still at that point, it only touches avg 2 min to kickoff games, pretty funny, anyway peace out!Comment -
if I look in the mirror look down and see some balls, I might throw a couple btc in and let it run well I sleep one night see how it does, I am sure it will get stuck somewhere and try and bet the Yankees -750 280,999,910 times but, I will do a mirror check before bed and consider pushing the melt button.Comment -
The concept is to post markets before Pinny and hope your odds are sharp enough? Or just to try to penny the Fairlay MM by cloning PInny but slightly tighter?
Seems like you'll either make a little money off the small guys or get crushed by the big ones.Comment -
This is very impressive danshan! You are very modest of your programming skills, they must be top notch to do this so quickly. How are you getting the other books price info, other apis or scraping an odds comparison site?
The one thing I'd be watchful of leaving it automated and unchecked for a long time is bot hunters. On Betfair, many people look for bots and try to exploit them. No doubt they may be lurking at fairlay, too.
PS Anyone having trouble last week at Fairlay of their bets not showing up on the actual market despite being unmatched and waiting to be matched? It is very disconcerting and means you can't trust the market. Fairlay's support never seems to be online when I'm online.Comment -
Thanks for replying. It feels like a refresh problem. But also thought it was some permission problem in my browser as I can almost never see any trollbox or support activity. Have tried different browsers and permissions, no luck yet.Comment -
at first I was using google sheets sending MY lines to excel and creating markets with my lines and then running down and trying to algo the same games to make sure I was a penny tighter and buying any slack. the buying slack got me some action but 99% of the action is my own markets with my lines being a penny tighter, even though I chased some other lines. Actually Kona scared my ass when he said that the sharps will eat me up but really the situation has been I think even the sharps are hesitant to jump on anything until some line comes out somewhere besides me, they dont trust my lines or theirs LOL, is how it looks. I have done pretty well but volume is the real issue, not sure it has enough to justify the time but I enjoy it. I MUST WIN so I will of course keep trying! Thanks for the compliment and support guys!Comment -
and for the fairlay issues, just use a private browser and you will have tons of success compared to a cookie enabled browser. I use chrome private on fairlay and it eliminates 99% of the issues. I should create a thread and share every market I create on that thread see if some people want to bet against me but I dont think most people are too interested but I dont mind doing it at all if anyone is interested. LMKComment -
If your volume in the table you posted was in BTC that is pretty impressive imo. I almost never get bets matched unless in the final hour before markets close.
Wehn are most of your bets getting matched, i thought in anearlier post you said it was between an hour to 2 mins before close, but your above posts suggests it's before lines open. Also, I assume the markets you make have duplicates where someone else makes the same market for the same event. How do you do volume wise compared to them?Comment -
you get some early action but the real bets come in minutes before close. My volume is comparable to those same lines but honestly I dont track it. I thought rotation numbers and better listings would help but in reality I do not know or grasp who is the fairlay user, a guy betting for the first time, a guy looking for a deal on a line, or a super sharp slickster trying to pick up on error. I wish I knew this so I could tailor my product to themComment -
I bet at all the exchanges. Fairlay definitely has the highest percentage of bot users. In fact, I rarely see bet action that looks human there tbh. The Fairlay average user is very different from most other sportsbooks - more a defcon crowd than SBR guys.
How do you deal with people - like me I suppose - who jump in front of your prices.Comment -
right see lots of that if I got -120 someone comes in for .1 a penny in front of my price at .119 see it all day, I am sure tons of people do it but its a losing prop in the long run, not enough volume to value doing that and rarely does the order get filled. I understand who are the setters of value but I really wonder who is the actual bettor of the lines. if pinny has -120 where is the guy willing to take -119 at? I rarely think he is at fairlay for sure.Comment -
I just want to learn how to get the bets, I am offering technically better than pinny prices and I am seeing maybe 500-1000 bucks in volume offering literally the best prices in the world.Comment -
I see your point, I thought you were offering slightly worse prices than Pinny. I see little to no evidence of casual style bettors, tho.
I'd bet mistaken bets still make up a scary percentage of bets, lol. Any time I have to place a lay bet it takes me minutes as I have to double check everything as I made mistakes in the past. It is not very intuitive. I dislike how say in the Yankees Oakland game tonight, the whole market would be bet on one team, so perhaps it was Oakland, that meant everyone who wanted to bet the Yankees had to lay Oakland and run the gauntlet!
Sadly, I don't think Fairlay will last a year more unless they drastically change the site design to make it more navigatable, and a bit brighter.
Btw I'm not one of those guys who sticks a couple of dollars in front of the best prices. I just use the exchanges to try to get the best prices for my bets.Comment -
I liked the plain Jane old site better at first but now the new site is great since I am used to it...use the search for much easier navigation...the guys there really have done a good job improving the site. Bottom line is that they offer best prices and instant payouts and esp for USA peeps the site is a must. the site having a learning curve is also because most are not used to exchange style platforms...I love itComment -
would be nearly impossible to do without an api, I am putting up markets nearly every minute via api automaticallyComment -
LOL, I am still scared to just leave it running and it is nearly almost instantly as soon as I post a market someone else posts the exact same market without fail, I assume they must be using something similar to me.Comment -
again I repeat this has been fun but its not real, you cant make any money doing this. My average bet size right now after 72 bets is $81.67Comment -
so assume I did 100 bets per day at 80 bucks a pop that 8000 per day bet and say .5% edge that is 40 dollars day profit roughly, but that could be automatic and we have not seen an NFL sunday on there yet but still 50-60 bucks a day is my guess.Comment -
seems again like zero volume, I mean 600 bucks is not gonna do it you know and that 600 bucks unmatched and 0 matchedComment -
The market-maker is horrible. he closes the race 10+ mins prior to post for USA and odds are bad. There is one good market maker for UK races he is very good w odds/API tied into to betfair/matchbook. I have moved 80% of my horse action to AC88 9wickets/Orbitx. If you came up with a good USA program and advertised it in forums you would get some good action esp from USA peeps who do not know about AC88 or want to hassle with VPN ectComment -
you would need to tweet your active links , or post them here or both. its impossible at fairlay to look at the endless worthless things they have "offered" only to find 99% of them have zero offers or basically garbage jibberish offers.
how would a person even know there is something halfway decent to consider in all those worthless blank choices race after race after race.
and consider you have to beat track odds by 10% + or so as top rebate shops give 8% through normal online parimutual wagering.
there is no SORT feature for a cusotmer to say only list events with a 5% vig spread or less, that would be a most helpful feature as 99% of fairly is slow and not competitive lines at all.
a person is not just going to randomly check fairlay races, like charles town, Phil, Monmouth, etc when for months if they had there would not have been a single thing to wager on. Not one. its like hitting your head against the wall plus god awful slow, and even if you do find something it usually is not confirmed, they give a delay to the offer person to cancel what they dont want.
but if you post some USA horses and give links or tweets or something that might be a way to get some start,Comment -
I noticed the offered odds were significantly worse than betfair on the couple of races I looked at. I could make it where my odds were competitive with betfair on the same races. the odds would update as betfair updated. the issue then becomes getting these markets (links) to whoever would bet them, I do agree the biggest problem with fairlay is finding the action and with horses you need that action to be updated and close simultaneous with betfair.
probably could start a horses thread and just paste the links of each market as like a daily list, put out every morning with all that days races and links.
so I guess the question is if I had betfair prices would it be worth it for US horse bettors?Comment -
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