It has now been proven beyond a doubt that the big bonus deposit model is absolutely unsustainable, dilutes the depositing marketing, turns recreational losers into winners and eventually breaks the back of any shop that insists on doing it. SO why is it not only continuing to happen considering all the bonus shops that have gone belly up in the last five years and now I get to hear about a 300% deposit bonus. Seriously, anyone have any feedback on this ongoing nightmare which always leads to customers getting screwed...
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cause these places are being managed by retard cokeheads like jon *****?Comment -
Its all about how you run it.
Bet365 has had huge bonuses over the years... 100% up to $500... free bets all the time.. they give away alot, but are still very successful. The key for them has always been limiting anyone who has shown any clue. Books with big bonuses that are still successful do this. Bet Islands didnt.Comment -
Right.... but lets look at the math. A $500 deposit bonus with a 10x rollover at 10 $50 wagers basically negates the Vigorish.... so now the book has to count on a player basically losing until he busts out. With the economy the way it is an evaporation of really stupid money has occurred which even Las Vegas is feeling the effects of the downward spiral. The easy stupid money was what was keeping even the worst run services operating but now there is an imbalance. There is more sharp or wise money (higher percentage) in the system or the average house handle and the probability of a skilled sports wagering professional taking these offers is highly likely and they are just going to crack the hell out of a book. This has led to and is going to lead to more poorly run services going belly up and the sharper houses are going to collar and limit proficient players faster while trying to minimize their risk with propositions and derivatives. So, for everyone wondering why the limits are getting cut in certain areas at old school books, guys are getting collared faster and or no actioned now you have your answer. The day of the giant bonus is over and any that take them do so at your own risk, even old school brands like BetHorizon are cancelling the 100% bonus as of June 1st (or you will see ridiculous rollovers and a ton of wagers types that will no longer count towards rollover completion) and I am sure other books are going to re-evaluate their current bonus structures for viability in relation to sharp percentages in house handles. Their is just a higher percentage of wise money playing offshore compared too a few years ago and any book that plans on surviving is going to change how they do business. So my question on this 300% bonus, what are the stipulations and what counts towards rollover out of curiosity... can anyone give us the run down. This is the largest bonus I have ever seen or heard of in all my years in the biz....Comment -
Just stay away from them would be my advice. But most can't or wontComment -
DEGENERATES.... gambling is an exercise in control and wise decisions.
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High bonus not being sustainable makes one key assumption...the book is taking equal volume on the games.
If I offer a 100 percent bonus to posters here..I know I am going to get one sided play from posters "scalping" on heavy dogs and playing the chalk elsewhere.
Its a win win..as long as I manage my winning players and keep getting lucky on the big MLs, we all win...players get the bonus and their stake back at a bigger book..and I keep the money, less cost of operating a book.
Problem is a. The big MLs dont always hit and when it goes bad, it can go very bad...if the player has the wits to meet their roll and b. You need a constant stream of losers to meet the needs of the sharper 10% who play with you.
Bonuses arent sustainable when combined with a high ad budget. The cost to fly a banner at forums is a minimum of 5k monthly each..if I book 40 players, with only 2 or 3 players winning and cashing regularly, I could sustain a profit...until a huge week of upsets crushes me with payout request.Comment -
I wouldnt say theres a higher percentage of sharp money around now...as long as there has been gambling we have seen squares and stupidity in the system...just ask all those holding wagers on goliath -2200 in the matchup with David.
If theres one constant in life, its the stupidity of your fellow man.Comment -
The key to all this is "recreational bettor."
There's no difference as to the percentage of winners of non-bonus players and bonus players. Books don't care it you take a bonus or not initially but will limit certain players from the 100% bonuses (or large bonuses) if they aren't "recreational players."
I am sure you have read many Threads/Posts where guys are not able to receive bonuses at the books they play at anymore. That should tell you something. True recreational player's won't be posting about not getting offered huge bonuses.
Larger bettors and non recreational bettors rarely take bonuses.Last edited by DwightShrute; 05-29-13, 01:15 PM.Comment -
I have taken my share of bonuses for sure. I would guess that 95% of time I bust out, 5% of time I go on a run that gets me even from the 95% of times I busted out.Comment -
don't focus on the percent. Paying for a good customer is what it is and, as a flat rate, that 300% bonus isn't too extreme.Comment -
We need an exchange..but the money is just not there..unless you take a high commision and pass all fees onto the end user...as well as make them responsible when a processor loses the money..which will never happen.
3% vig just wont cut it..as the cost of receiving funds is going to be at least 12% of the deposited amount. The cost of outgoing payments isnt cheap either...and you need a processor you can trust, who wont get shut down and who can handle the volume, those arent plentiful.
You also need an honest operator for the exchange..most would rather turn to a pph turn key site and take players money versus facilitate a service between players for a fee..why take a little when theres more for the taking.
CRIS still have betmaker for the US? They know how to profit from volume and have saturated their consumer betting market..probably only hope for a matchbook clone in the next 5 years.Comment -
DJ... like your content, always on the ball. The most danger from a 100% bonus is exceeding $500, having less than a 11x or 12x rollover and the fact that this is usually a new sign up deposit bonus and the service will most likely not have an action history on the player so the risk exposure team will not know how sharp they are until they start cracking the shit out of the house. I have seen certain player accounts that are authorized for 100% deposit reloads every time and these same players are just incapable of taking a payout. Seriously, 5 or 6 years with hundreds of $300 and $500 deposits and not one single withdrawal... it goes against the law of averages or statistics... some guys are just cursed in my opinion. So ya, I deal a lot with mathematics and hard science but there is just a little voodoo I try and keep an eye out for you might say. Do not know how to better explain this but I know a few owners of large services that are very superstitious.Comment -
Maybe they are not trying to build a balance at that book. If so, they are very good at what they are aiming to accomplish. If a book is offering a 100% bonus and attracts the players that try to get the bonus to lose to another book as dj alluded too, it can be profitable for a book to have the 100% bonuses imo.Comment -
This is usually arbing the bonus out and done with 100% bonuses with the lowest rollover that can be found between 2 or more bonus houses. In this scenario a book is going to get slammed but you just do not know which one and if you got 100 or few hundred Euro arbitrage players on your sheet a percentage is going to choose you as the slammee. It was very common 3 to 5 years ago when there was a ton of services offering these type of large 100% bonuses an cost bonus services a ton of money before they caught on and started not accepting arbitrage or Euro players. The guy I was referring too was definitely not in this category... his action was all over the place, every market including casino and the nags. Just a born degenerate loser... he is in my top ten of worst player histories I have ever profiled. What really sucks for a shop is if they are unlucky enough to have 70% or more of the arbitrage players by coincidence choose them, this was a big factor in Bet911 getting its back broken 5 years ago.Comment -
Tb thank you for your insights into the sportsbook making world. Just wondering, all these shops, can't they lay off the action from the euro players? I would have assumed a book needs all type of players and the more volume they get the more profitable they would be.Comment -
I will never understand a us-facing book offering 100% to euros.. They are obviously clueless and asking to get killed. What Carl did to bet horizon was dirty and all he gave a shit about was his commission. Horizon never really fully recovered from that.. The owner personally told me the list of euros that Carl brought with him cost the company close to 500kComment -
Goombah, I understand were you are coming from but this is about converting freeplay into cash so no matter what you lay off the bonus is turning into cash. It is a loser situation for the books... and 100% bonuses. So even if the wheel is balanced at 50/50, what is there to layoff and still 100% bonuses are turning into cash to be withdrawn. That is the problem with this scenario. Laverty... hear you. You know a thing or two about some history.Comment -
Unless you are a two bit bookie, what the hell do you care if it is sustainable or not??
Play at books that manage risk and stfuComment -
I would think the players would care even more when the bonus service of their choosing goes belly up with all their money... also, if I am in Costa Rica for a decade what are the chances I am only a 2 bit bookie. Man... pointing guys in the right direction is more of a good thing most would think, I guess not you Kindred. Good luck with your balances at all the bonus houses... and yes a good house uses risk management (part of risk management is bonus limiting) but then players complain about being limited on wagers and bonuses.Comment
