Porto-Rio Ave line movement

[ParlayininHTown]

There was a massive line shift in favor of the draw about 15 minutes before this match began, which scared me, but Porto is up 2-0. I bet Benfica ML despite massive line movement against it a couple weeks ago, and Rio Ave wound up earning a 2-2 draw.

I guess the line shift today was just an attempt to sucker people into betting the draw or Rio Ave? I can't see why sharps would've been on this team, considering Porto is on another level. Their recent draws all came against teams that are worse than Porto.

This line movement stuff confuses me. I always try to go with my gut and not let the shifts affect my pick, and it seems like I win half of the time and lose half of the time when I ignore the movement. Frustrating for a novice gambler.

[BigTimeWinner]

Indeed, I try to avoid those games ... when both teams have nothing to play for. I still keep making stupid bets though on lower level leagues, which are killing all my profits

[EaglesPhan36]

I think people look way too much into line movement for the most part. What was this "massive" change in the draw price? Curious.

[ParlayininHTown]

I think people look way too much into line movement for the most part. What was this "massive" change in the draw price? Curious.

Saw that Porto was at -230, and then about 15 minutes before kick off it dropped to -180. The draw went down to around +300, and Rio Ave's ML did not budge at all.

It meant nothing, though. Porto won 5-2, and Rio Ave never really threatened to do anything better than cover the spread.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. IMO unless prices are dropping by dollars, I don't read too much into movement. Like in all sports, it can mean anything from someone putting down a big bet on one side or the other to absolutely no reason other than manipulation. If you know lineups and they are what you thought they would be, stick with it. And when I see those massive dollar drops, those are about the only times I might consider jumping off a play ... but usually I stick with what I like.