Basel ML +1500

[lunchbawks]

worth a shot. bayern is far from a lock here

2*Basel +2 -110
.5*Basel ML +1500

[FindTheLock]

bayern coming off a 7 goal performance and robben is getting hot at the right time. bayern is a totally different team when robben is healthy and has his confidence back. I think bayern blows them out in this one, but GL. Robben started getting his confidence back in his friendly against England where he scored for the first time in a while. After that game bayern won 7-1, and I think they will ride that wave at home tomorrow.

[gotov]

Bayern

[lunchbawks]

basel proved they can compete with the worlds best. they win this game better than 1 in 15 times robben won't get whatever he wants against a team with heart

[BigTimeWinner]

I think bayern will win by at least 2 goals difference tomorrow. Basel defense is poor imo, bayern should be able to convert their chances at home, plus I don't think basel will get on their way to the quarters, considering they are neighbours. Shaqiri(basel player) also moved to bayern and he'll play there starting next season

[FindTheLock]

I am riding the wave. Bayern is about to go on a heater and I am jumping on the train for the ride.

[lunchbawks]

Basel hasn't lost in 17 game.. huuuuge game for bayern n they always choke in these crucial games. Basel scored in every away match this season... now they're a 15/1 payout to win SU

[FindTheLock]

GL man. You will see why they are such huge underdogs tomorrow. If you watched the first game bayern missed a lot of chances to score, and I just don't think they will miss those goals tomorrow on their home field.

[lunchbawks]

yea bayern probably will win but if they played this match 15 times basel wins better than 1 game

[littlezola]

yeah, a small stake. anyone who has watched either of these teans this year knows they got more than a 7% chance. basel's keeper is great, they've got a good mix of young and old, they are really progressive side.

bayern don't lose a lot at home. but they haven't been impressive this year, for me. they look soft when teams go for them. yes they've got their big players, blah, blah, blah, home record etc, but at that price you'd have to be really desperate for a win to hit them.

as for AH, i think basel will score in germany, but i'd still be cautious about taking basel +2. i'd have to think about it more.

Basel to score (bayern -clean sheet no) is around the same price

[BigTimeWinner]

I am not sure if Basel will score tomorrow, they barely scored at home, even though they had a lot of chances, but the pitch was really fuked up, bayern not at their best, + playing away, and still they deserved to get at least 2-3 goals ( so did basel).

I think the score will be 3-0 or 4-0

[diggnation+TRS]

Why dont we just bet the over then?

[camelbreath$]

I bet on Basel in the first leg and won huge. This time, Bayern absolutely crushes Basel. The odds are set as such for a reason.

[JOHON8]

Technically +2 looks good for Basel on H2H, but there is a good chance they get blown out in this spot. Bayern scored 7 goals over the weekend with Ribery, Robben and crew all involved... good time for some revenge after losing 1-0 last game.

if anything, a good value play would be on the draw, if Basel can properly defend after getting pummled then you'll cash, just don't see how they could get a goal during all the pressure.

[littlezola]

The reason the odds are set like that are because OMG FREE MONEY LOLZ fools will pile in, like they did for the benfica & man utd games.

[Pauulzcappin]

I think Basel +2 is a good play.

[sweepem]

Bayern will defeat Basel. Expect a 3:0,3:1,4:0,4:1,5:0,5:1 scoreline. This is the biggest game of season for them, remember the CL Final is in Munich.

Also the heart and soul of the midfield(Schweinsteiger) is back today.

If they get eliminated today alot of players and the coach will be gone after the season.

Bayern home stats:

13 Bundesliga Games: 11 wins, 0 draws, 2 loses(0:1 Gladbach and 0:1 Dortmund) 43:4 Goals

3 CL Games: 3 Wins 8:3 Goals

[innn]

possible facts: bayern concedes goals --Basel to score one
Basel deserves more credit than usually thought and surely more tahn Hoffenheim
Totals under 3,5 goals --this ain't Europa League for xxx sake--is what I will take for tonight
good luck

[littlezola]

So, the final is in Munich. Are teams statistically more likely to get to the Euro final if its in their stadium? how many teams have played a CL league final in their own stadium? I can't think of an example from the last 20 years?

This season...
Man Utd v Basel was also priced at 1.20 - result 3-3 draw.

Benfica v Basel was priced 1.3 - result 1-1 draw.

Dortmund and Gladbach, two teams that have beaten bayern at home this year. they have something in common with Basel in style of play. Bayern have been beaten by worse teams than Basel this year.

Yes, Bayern will probably win tonight (as would be expected) but the value is on Basel, that's what the OP was talking about. The price on Bayern has no value and is not worth taking. The risk hugely outweighes the statistical/financial return. Like i said, you would have to be really hard up for a win to take it. Longterm its a losers bet. Even if Bayern win 5-0 tonight, it doesnt change that...

[Bluedragon]

So, the final is in Munich. Are teams statistically more likely to get to the Euro final if its in their stadium? how many teams have played a CL league final in their own stadium? I can't think of an example from the last 20 years?

This season...
Man Utd v Basel was also priced at 1.20 - result 3-3 draw.

Benfica v Basel was priced 1.3 - result 1-1 draw.

Dortmund and Gladbach, two teams that have beaten bayern at home this year. they have something in common with Basel in style of play. Bayern have been beaten by worse teams than Basel this year.

Yes, Bayern will probably win tonight (as would be expected) but the value is on Basel, that's what the OP was talking about. The price on Bayern has no value and is not worth taking. The risk hugely outweighes the statistical/financial return. Like i said, you would have to be really hard up for a win to take it. Longterm its a losers bet. Even if Bayern win 5-0 tonight, it doesnt change that...

valid points, but on the other hand, can Basel do it a THIRD time? It is quite an accomplishment for them to perform that well against those clubs but it's a huuuge stretch to say they can easily do it again. It's possible, but that would be an unheard of accomplishment and would turn Champs upside down.

[RubberKettle]

Bayern confidence is probably sky high after the 7-1.
Basel would be the shock of the season if Apoel we're not mentioned.
Basel will continue to show Arjen Robben down the wing. If his confidence drops so does his head and thus his determination to play. If you watched the first leg you could tell he didn't like the pitch or his play. Basel will probably lose this 2-1 or 2-0. I will take them on the +2 even. I think its a good bet.

[littlezola]

^i'm not sure i follow this logic. Because they've had 2 good results away against big teams, this makes the a 3rd good result less likely?

They aren't a bunch of nobodies. They're a club with some excellent players and a great youth system, they've also beaten United and Bayern this year, and it wasn't about luck.

i'm not saying they WILL win tonight, they are a huge underdog, just that the possibility is larger than the odds would suggest.

[Visage987]

i just could not resist, to take Basel at these high odds.
I want to win this bet, and i want it really bad

[cogiditopapa]

I see it from this perspective:

Bayer is the better side, usually strong at home. bayer knows that they have to score at least 2 goals and keep a clean sheet in order to make it.
Now Basel the huge underdog, they are currently winning 1-0, the perfect game for them will be to play for a draw, in my point of view very unlikely that this will happen due to many factors you all have already mentioned in this thread (BTW, very good thread).

If I am couching Basel, I will probably say to my players, we have to defend but we also have and must score at least 1 goal, why, because this will obligate bayer to score 3 in order to make it to the next round.
Bayer is in a very tough situation because if they don't unleash their firing power today the can be out of the CL, they are running thin in the run to win the bundesliga.

I think Schweinsteiger will be key for this Bayer team. Freid an company will have their chances to score.

If Bayer can open the score quickly in the game this can become a goal fest, now I hope that is the case....=). Thank you all for the great debate going on in this thread is very helpfull.

I made the following pics:

bayer over 2.5 at 2
basel over 1.5 at 5
Over 3.5 at 2.20
Over 4.5 at 4

[Kraghen]

I think you'd better live betting just to see which side is more likely to win, I did that for the Man Utd vs Atl Bilbao when they were 1-1, their odd was great and they had more occasion than Utd. You won't make much money from betting on favorite. You'd better bet on dogs AH. Yesterday I made huge money on Happoel.

[camelbreath$]

I will be MASSIVELY surprised if Basel goes through. Reason being, I think you can not underestimate the 'German' mentality of this Bayern side. With the Champion's League final being held in Munich, they will be under immense pressure to advance. I think they will likely score early, often and not stop. I would be amazed to see anything less than 2-0 at half time.

Bayern had a ridiculous 21 shots in the first match. They also possessed the ball and only relinquished control on the occasional counter attack. Basel withstood a barrage of shots in what can only be described as somewhat lucky fashion. (I had a bet on Basel in the first game, I considered the win rather lucky!) I think Bayern will replicate the first match, but put some in the net in front of home crowd support.

Previous Match bets:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/1593747-2-parlays-uefa-europa-champions-league.html

[camelbreath$]

I will be MASSIVELY surprised if Basel goes through. Reason being, I think you can not underestimate the 'German' mentality of this Bayern side. With the Champion's League final being held in Munich, they will be under immense pressure to advance. I think they will likely score early, often and not stop. I would be amazed to see anything less than 2-0 at half time.

Bayern had a ridiculous 21 shots in the first match. They also possessed the ball and only relinquished control on the occasional counter attack. Basel withstood a barrage of shots in what can only be described as somewhat lucky fashion. (I had a bet on Basel in the first game, I considered the win rather lucky!) I think Bayern will replicate the first match, but put some in the net in front of home crowd support.

Previous Match bets:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-bet...ns-league.html

This one is getting ugly fast. Might be 7-0.

[FindTheLock]

ROBBEN is going off in this game! Bayern is going on a run here fellas!!!

[lunchbawks]

cmon u fkks score 1 goal

[FindTheLock]

basel doesn't even have a shot on goal yet! They will change everything now. I expect to see at least 2 more goals in this game in the 2H.

[lunchbawks]

ill just double up on CSKA moscow tomorrow, its pays +2650

[jules11]

4-0 Bayern

[lunchbawks]

4-0 Bayern

0-2 me...basel came to lose today

[littlezola]

this is horrible....poor basel.

[cogiditopapa]

ill just double up on CSKA moscow tomorrow, its pays +2650

Haha,