Roag's 2-5 Draw System Plays

unclebuzz1 · 06-22-11, 04:36 PM

I had to look quite awhile but I finally found you. Is there a preset amount for each step? How high do the last bets get? GL

pacers101 · 06-22-11, 04:54 PM

GL, i'm on it too. but I RR w/ cordoba/river platte in argentina.

RoagBettor · 06-22-11, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by unclebuzz1

I had to look quite awhile but I finally found you. Is there a preset amount for each step? How high do the last bets get? GL

Since we're playing Draws with odds generally over +200 I'm going to change the bet amounts from the traditional 2-5 to the following. We can adjust accordingly based upon the results:

Bet 1 (b1) = $10
b2=$20
b3=$40
b4=$60
b5=$80

sharknut · 06-22-11, 05:53 PM

wow 2-5 on a system with regular $3+ plays. You have balls of steel Roag, good luck mate, if this works you will be the kIng of soccer!

White Rhino · 06-22-11, 06:06 PM

I look forward to the new system. Hope it works.

Ace_of_Spades · 06-22-11, 07:24 PM

MLS is the best place to start for draws.

dume walker · 06-22-11, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Since we're playing Draws with odds generally over +200 I'm going to change the bet amounts from the traditional 2-5 to the following. We can adjust accordingly based upon the results:

Bet 1 (b1) = $10
b2=$20
b3=$40
b4=$60
b5=$80

So, to state and confirm the obvious, maximum exposure for each series is $210. And you have to have at least 1 draw out of the 5 games picked.

skyscrapers · 06-22-11, 08:19 PM

Hi Roag, looking good on the first game of your project. Scoreless draw with less than 10 minutes left.

dume walker · 06-22-11, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

Hi Roag, looking good on the first game of your project. Scoreless draw with less than 10 minutes left.

Ssshhhh... The gods may be listening... Don't want to wake them...

unclebuzz1 · 06-22-11, 08:28 PM

1st one's in the books ...

RoagBettor · 06-22-11, 08:29 PM

Series 1, Bet 1: 6/22/2011 7:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 153 Draw (Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) vs Philadelphia Union (USA-MLS))* +222 - $10 to win $22.20

Always nice to start a new system with a win!

RoagBettor · 06-22-11, 09:30 PM

Series 2, Bet 1: 6/22/2011 8:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 156 Draw (Salt Lake (USA-MLS) vs Chicago (USA-MLS))* +224 - $10 to win $22.40

2-0 on the night!

skyscrapers · 06-22-11, 09:30 PM

Good job Roag!! 2 for 2.

unclebuzz1 · 06-22-11, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by unclebuzz1

1st one's in the books ...

2nd one's in the books ...

RoagBettor · 06-22-11, 09:32 PM

Series 3, Bet 1: 6/23/2011 1:00 PM Sweden Soccer 518 Draw (Mjallby (SWE-A) vs Syrianska FC (SWE-A))* +227 - $10 to win $22.70

Jimbo42 · 06-22-11, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

So, to state and confirm the obvious, maximum exposure for each series is $210. And you have to have at least 1 draw out of the 5 games picked.

you need to win two to close out the series bro....win one only and ur goose is cooked

Jimbo42 · 06-22-11, 09:48 PM

You are just opening series bro? no b2 bets??

RoagBettor · 06-22-11, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

You are just opening series bro? no b2 bets??

Starting off slowly, we'll have some b2's this weekend with more MLS matches coming up

Jimbo42 · 06-22-11, 10:02 PM

Don't be too careful... let it flow

Popular · 06-22-11, 11:45 PM

Love this thread =).. Wish you would've made this your new home for all the plays and get away from all the traffic the NBA forum gets but it's all good =).. Let's get it tomorrow

Bengals28 · 06-23-11, 12:17 AM

Dang, missed the first 2. Just put my play in for the game tomorrow, will be tailing from here on out!

owl · 06-23-11, 12:22 AM

RB, when you come up with your systems that generate picks do you do a lot of back-testing?

fitguy67 · 06-23-11, 09:59 AM

if we'd feel more comfy mm-wise with a 33% break even and wanted to play 2-6...how would the bet sizes adjust (btw...i'd strongly suggest you consider taking this slightly more conservative route...cuz no matter how good a capper you are, 40% hit rate is just too optomistic)

fitguy67 · 06-23-11, 10:00 AM

for hitting DRAWS, of course (not sides/totals)

RoagBettor · 06-23-11, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

if we'd feel more comfy mm-wise with a 33% break even and wanted to play 2-6...how would the bet sizes adjust (btw...i'd strongly suggest you consider taking this slightly more conservative route...cuz no matter how good a capper you are, 40% hit rate is just too optomistic)

No, I don't want to use the 2-6 because that b6 would be like $120 and I don't want to risk that much. We're going to lose series there's no question about it, I'm still running the numbers to see how many series wins we need for every loss. The other option we have is instead of betting "to risk" we could bet "to win"; with the odds over +200 for these plays the amount risked is cut in half (or less) and the series loss(es) would be minimized.

Let's see how it goes for 2-3 weeks, then we can make adjustments as needed. This isn't going to be easy, but it can be profitable.

fitguy67 · 06-23-11, 03:56 PM

the "to risk" version of betting is perfectly suited to any sort of "loss+chalk recuperation" method (be it a "series"/"chase" to win or a "line" to clear)...it'd be interesting to compare on back data the average cost of 2-6 series losses bet "to win" vs. 2-5 series losses bet "to risk"

RoagBettor · 06-23-11, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

the "to risk" version of betting is perfectly suited to any sort of "loss+chalk recuperation" method (be it a "series"/"chase" to win or a "line" to clear)...it'd be interesting to compare on back data the average cost of 2-6 series losses bet "to win" vs. 2-5 series losses bet "to risk"

Right. I don't have time right now but hopefully this weekend I'll be able to crunch some numbers.

doubledime · 06-23-11, 08:43 PM

Good luck RB

RoagBettor · 06-23-11, 11:10 PM

Series 1, Bet 2: 6/24/2011 8:00 PM Brazil Soccer 356 Draw (Gremio Barueri (BRA-B) vs Ituiutaba Esporte Clube (BRA-B))* +234 - $20 to win $46.80

Series 2, Bet 2: 6/24/2011 2:35 PM Rep Ireland Soccer 503 Draw (Shamrock Rovers (IRE-P) vs Sligo Rovers (IRE-P))* +235 - $20 to win $47

*We won the first bets in both Series 1 & 2; we lost the first bet in Series 3.

Bell Curves · 06-23-11, 11:17 PM

The Ireland one is is at +228 on pinnacle.

Also, sincere regards for your daughter.

owl · 06-24-11, 04:08 AM

Godspeed regarding your daughter's surgery.

Each Hit · 06-24-11, 10:00 AM

All the best and well wishes for your family.

risk_ay · 06-24-11, 10:51 AM

All the best to your daughter today!

Vinotinto · 06-24-11, 02:04 PM

The best for your daughter and family Mate...