Make A Living Betting Under 2.5 in EPL ?

[BetWeather]

I make great money betting all EPL games under 2.5 (or 3)
Really good money like 70% or better.

Does anyone know where I can find under lines vs outcomes
for EPL La Liga and Serie A ???

I think the under should rule in Serie A !

Thoughts ?

[donkson]

http://www.football-data.co.uk/

Look through there for data on results, doesn't have any betfair lines, but the spreadsheets have market averages on there so it gives you a good indication.

[BetWeather]

http://www.football-data.co.uk/

Look through there for data on results, doesn't have any betfair lines, but the spreadsheets have market averages on there so it gives you a good indication.

Thanks donkson....

Looking at the epl table for 2011 I can't seem it figure out
which field represents the over/under line ?

Any guess ?

[BetWeather]

Why do books have the over/under line high ?
---------------------------------------------------------
I think the public wants to see and thinks goals will
be scored and therefore this is the reason the over/under line
is high the majority of the time.

Only in mis-match games does the line appear to be accurate.
In a majority of some what even matched games the line is
often high...

Anyone else notice this ?

[bekmurat]

Good idea

[donkson]

Thanks donkson....

Looking at the epl table for 2011 I can't seem it figure out
which field represents the over/under line ?

Any guess ?

If you look at http://www.football-data.co.uk/notes.txt it tells you what all the abbreviations in the spreadsheets are.

[BetWeather]

If you look at http://www.football-data.co.uk/notes.txt it tells you what all the abbreviations in the spreadsheets are.

Awesome Donk

[BetWeather]

Donk...
Did a bunch of research on the EPL.

Best scenario... throw out the middle table teams and then bet over
2.5 gives a 72% return.

[Vaughany]

I think u'l find that more goals are scored in Italy than most leagues

[BetWeather]

I think u'l find that more goals are scored in Italy than most leagues

You may be right about that but I bet the same
strategy will work for Serie A as the EPL.

IE... throw out the middle table teams and then
bet the rest over 2.5 .

[Mr.Kitty]

Over/Under 2.5 percentages for the biggest leagues

Premier League: O/U: 53/47%, goalaverage per/game: 2.76

La Liga: O/U: 51/49%, goalaverage per/game: 2.68

Serie A: O/U: 42/58%, goalaverage per/game: 2.4

Bundesliga: O/U: 59/41%, goalaverage per/game: 2.98

Ligue 1: O/U: 42/58%, goalaverage per/game: 2.34

[BetWeather]

Awesome Mr. Kity...

Your stats for the EPL are exactly what I found.
Would you try throwing out 7 of teams in the middle table. (or you think will be in the middle ) and recalculate your numbers !

I think you will find that the o/u percentage for the EPL will got up to about 72/38 %

[JOHON8]

Are you gonna open up a thread to keep a record of progress? GL

[nyplayer33]

dont forget your betting alot of overs in the epl laying juice

[nyplayer33]

the france league totals can be over/under 2.0

[BetWeather]

Here is a thought. First throw out the middle table teams and also any game
with 130 juice or better... then bet the over !

Going to try it for EPL and Bundesleague... Will post a new thread.

[Mr.Kitty]

Awesome Mr. Kity... Your stats for the EPL are exactly what I found. Would you try throwing out 7 of teams in the middle table. (or you think will be in the middle ) and recalculate your numbers ! I think you will find that the o/u percentage for the EPL will got up to about 72/38 %

If I take out 7 teams in the middle of the table (place 8-14) and only calculate from the teams placed 1-7 and 15-20 the goalaverage is 2.78 and O/U is 55/45%. Compared to 2.76 and 53/47% when all teams are in the calculation, hardly any difference at all.

[BetWeather]

Thanks Mr. Kitty...
My calculations were based on taking out 10 or even 11 teams.
For this year in EPL.

If it is not too much trouble can you try that

Then your dealing with only the big "winners" and "losers"

Note :
I do see one typo I made.... not "72/38" I meant "62/38" DOH


One other thing.... look how low scoring all the games were
in december, jan and feb compared to early and late season.
Think you will find a huge diff. there.

[Czu81]

Make A Living ?.....u need a loads of $$$

[Mr.Kitty]

Thanks Mr. Kitty... My calculations were based on taking out 10 or even 11 teams. For this year in EPL. If it is not too much trouble can you try that Then your dealing with only the big "winners" and "losers" Note : I do see one typo I made.... not "72/38" I meant "62/38" DOH One other thing.... look how low scoring all the games were in december, jan and feb compared to early and late season. Think you will find a huge diff. there.

When I only include the top 5 teams and bottom 5 teams of EPL, I get these calculations:

Goalaverage: 2.74
O/U: 54/46%

Compared to:

2.76 and 53/47% with all teams
2.78 and 55/45% with 7 middle teams taken out

All the calculations are a little scewed since some of the teams have played 29 games while others played 30 games.

[BetWeather]

I do like these numbers and they are significant.

Imagine liking the over for a game, then finding out
that it is also well favored historically.

That is a big advantage !