Newcastle/Blackburn - a note of caution

[Wilforth]

There seems to be a lot of love for Newcastle in this game. That's perfectly understandable given their recent exploits. But are they really in a good spot for a win? Let's look at a few things here:

1) Newcastle beat Sunderland 5-1 in their last home game. Good.
2) After beating Sunderland, they did something greater by posting a road win as a huge underdog against Arsenal. Good.

Here's the catch:
1) Before that win over Sunderland, the last time Newcastle won a home game by 4 goals or more this season was when they thrashed Aston Villa by 6-0. What happened in their following home game? They lost by 0-2 to Blackpool.
2) Before their road against Arsenal, the last time Newcastle won on the road as a huge undergog was when they thrashed Chelsea 4-3 in a Carling Cup duel. What happened in their next game? They lost at home to Stoke.

Let's also consider these h2h trends in the Newcastle/Blackburn series:
1) The road team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
2) Blackburn are a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

I'm not advocating Blackburn as a play here, but Balckburn ML is the best contrarian play on today's soccer board, IMHO.

Just my 2 cents.

[Wilforth]

I forgot to add this:

Newcastle are 3-0 in their L3 EPL games and have now won 5 of their L11 EPL games (45% win rate). It's very risky to back a 0.45 team to win 4 straight games!!!

[nobull]

great analysis & i will be going small on this play

[LostBankroll]

$10 on the Draw and $10 on Blackburn.

[PickApprentice]

If H-B plays Newcastle, then it is safe to play Newcastle.

[shantystar]

There seems to be a lot of love for Newcastle in this game. That's perfectly understandable given their recent exploits. But are they really in a good spot for a win? Let's look at a few things here:

1) Newcastle beat Sunderland 5-1 in their last home game. Good.
2) After beating Sunderland, they did something greater by posting a road win as a huge underdog against Arsenal. Good.

Here's the catch:
1) Before that win over Sunderland, the last time Newcastle won a home game by 4 goals or more this season was when they thrashed Aston Villa by 6-0. What happened in their following home game? They lost by 0-2 to Blackpool.
2) Before their road against Arsenal, the last time Newcastle won on the road as a huge undergog was when they thrashed Chelsea 4-3 in a Carling Cup duel. What happened in their next game? They lost at home to Stoke.

Let's also consider these h2h trends in the Newcastle/Blackburn series:
1) The road team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
2) Blackburn are a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

I'm not advocating Blackburn as a play here, but Balckburn ML is the best contrarian play on today's soccer board, IMHO.

Just my 2 cents.

GoodNote GL.

[Smogs]

If H-B plays Newcastle, then it is safe to play Newcastle.

I respect H, but what's his record this year? Not in the black that's for sure, so do some background research before tailing

[hillandkimi]

I think Newcastle win

[Glada Tartan]

Newcastle is impossible to bet on.. this game can be 0-3, 3-3 or maybe 5-0 ...

[scholesy]

I agree, Newcastle doesn't look so good after further research.

[Smogs]

I forgot to add this:

Newcastle are 3-0 in their L3 EPL games and have now won 5 of their L11 EPL games (45% win rate). It's very risky to back a 0.45 team to win 4 straight games!!!

I'm on Blackburn first half +0.25

[psulions]

Thanks for the heads up. Great analysis.

[ararat2010]

Like contrarian Blackburn ))) BOL!

[Netprofit]

Wilforth, superb analysis - and you know it is huge play for me ...

[zlate22]

good call blackburn take the lead

[Kraghen]

1-0 for Blackburn, but the game isn't over yet...

[Kraghen]

good call blackburn take the lead

There're still plenty of time... don't rush and say blackburn already won...

[16johnnymac]

The odd they win b burns opponent is a long shot go blackburn!! I got some $ riding on ml too sweet

[Wilforth]

Newcastle 1-2 Blackburn

That is it, folks!!! Newcastle ML was never a good bet.

[Glada Tartan]

Haha Newcastle... they do suck at home.. at least that we can conclude, well they suck in every other game and is totally dominating every other.. well we can conclude that we can conclude that Newcastle is NOT a team to bet on!

[16johnnymac]

Any score update???

[Glada Tartan]

1-2 final

[vgvarad]

Very nice call! TY Wil!)

[TR88]

nice call

[JOHON8]

classy call Wilforth

[skodaka]

nice one i can say