Nickos Experiment - Daily Soccer Picks

[Nickos]

Pick #15

PLS over/under play

Bet:$81.80 @ 1.89

2010-11-05 German League 2 Bochum Vs FSV Frankfurt Pick Under 2.5
Result 1-0 Bochum WIN

$81.80 X 1.89 = $154.60
$154.60-$81.80 = $72.80

Line Debt (-39.64)+(-59.20)+(-2.60)+(69.16) = -32.28

New Line 19.8-19.8-39.6
Next bet $59.40

Pick #16

2010-11-05 French League 2 FC Mets Vs Le Mans Pick FC Mets
Bet $59.40 @ 2.60

[Nickos]

Pick #16

2010-11-05 French League 2 FC Mets Vs Le Mans Pick FC Mets
Bet $59.40 @ 2.60

2010-11-05 French League 2 FC Mets Vs Le Mans Pick FC Mets LOST 0-1

New Line 19.8-19.8-39.6-59.40
Next bet $79.20

Pick #17

CALL IN BET
2010-11-05 Portugal - Liga Sagres Setubal Vs Rio Ave Pick Rio Ave
Current Score 2-1 Rio Ave (Half Time)

Bet: $79 @ 1.58

I didn't want to seem like a weirdo betting that extra 20 cents on the phone so I just made this bet a straight $79.

Rio did qualify before the same started as a pick but I thought Metz would be more likely, now that they are winning I thought I would jump on board.

If they hold the lead my line debt will be reduced from $91.68 to $48.15
If they cant hold the lead my line debt is increased from $91.68 to 170.68

If they win my new line will be
19.80-39.60
Next Bet would be $59.40

If they lose my line would be
19.8-19.8-39.6-59.4-79
Next bet would be $98.80

[Nickos]

Play # 18

PLS English Premier League
Under 2.5
$98.98 @ 1.71 odds

[damien]

Yesterday wasn't good.Let's get them today.BOL

[Smithers-Jones]

Play # 18

PLS English Premier League
Under 2.5
$98.98 @ 1.71 odds

Was it Sunderland or Fulham?

[Nickos]

Was it Sunderland or Fulham?

I wish, It was Birmingham and West Ham. Horrible streak right now! Last 3 losses, need tom turn this around I have another PLS about to start in the Brazilian league hoping this will help

Slightly hungover and still tired but I have $120 on dropping odds starting at 1.7 on a Brazilian match, calculations to follow later.

Need the next two games to go back in the right direction!

Pick 19

2010-11-06 PLS play

[damien]

3 losses , why don't you play your pick ? I don't feel confident with service plays. I hope you cash on the brazilians game tonight. BOL

[Nickos]

So last night after some chiropractic practice with friends over at theirs, we decided to drink and watch The Social Network. Got 3/4 into the movie but I had to stop because I was about to pass out. I quickly checked the score of the EPL game and it was Birmingham 0 West Ham 0 at half, I was like sweet this is looking good, money in the bank, pulled out a spare mattress from the closet and passed out at theirs.

When I woke, slightly hungover, I realized the game ended 2-2 (over 2.5), I was like shit... ok next game. I had put $60 on the over for a Brazilian B League game (also a service play) the night before out of my other half of my account funds. I realized this was about to start in less than 10 minuets. So I thought ok tag another $60 on this and make it a system play. So I did but I didn't get as good of odds as when I first put cash on it. I posted on here then fell back to sleep again. When I finally got up close to two hours later, the game was in the 85' min 1-0, i was holy crap another loss, what is going on! I closed my ipad not wanting to even think about this horrible run of bets. I then picked up where I left off in the Social Network. Friends then woke and we started to practice again for our skills exam tomorrow. I then decided I better check to final score of that Brazilian game again and when I did this is what I saw on livescore.com

FT ASA [2 - 1] Vila Nova.

60' [1 - 0] M. Tamandare
88' [1 - 1] M. Pardalzinho
90' [2 - 1] Didira

Somehow two goals came out of no where in the last few minuets of the game and the bet actually won! Now it's time to move onto the next one, another win should get me a lot closer to actually closing this line.

Instead of showing all my calculations I decided to copy and paste the winning and commission charges right from my betfair account.

Fixtures 06 November / ASA v Vila Nova / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals
1.64 $29.92 * 1.64 $19.15

Fixtures 06 November / ASA v Vila Nova / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals
1.7 $30.08 * 1.7 $21.05

Fixtures 06 November / ASA v Vila Nova / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals 1.74 $60.00 * 1.74 $44.40

Fixtures 06 November / Birmingham v West Ham / Over/Under 2.5 goals Under 2.5 1.71 $98.80 * 1.71 (-$98.80)

Fixtures 06 November ASA v Vila Nova / Over/Under 2.5 goals
Comm Charged 4.91% On Net winnings of AUD84.6 *- - - (-$4.15) *
($19.15)+($21.05)+($44.40)-($4.15) = +$80.45


Old Line Debt (-39.64)+(-59.20)+(-2.60)+(69.16) = -$32.28
New Line Debt = (-32.28)+(-79)+(-98.80)+(80.45) = -$129.63


Old Line (19.80)-(19.80)-(39.60)-(69.40)-(79)-(98.80)
New Line (19.80)-(39.60)-(69.40)-(79)
Next Bet = $98.80

[Nickos]

Pick # 20

2010-11-07 Norway Tippeligaen Valerenga Oslo Vs Tromso IL Pick Valerenga

***UPDATE***

Here's the calculated current record with the recent string of games played

Record
10-9 , 52.63%, +$22.95

Total Profit = Current line starting Bankroll - Current line debt - total investment
Total Profit = $752.58 - $129.63 - $600.00
Total Profit = $22.95

[Nickos]

Lean (unofficial bet) on Nancy over Monaco in French League 1

[Nickos]

Pick # 20

2010-11-07 Norway Tippeligaen Valerenga Oslo Vs Tromso IL Pick Valerenga

2010-11-07 Norway Tippeligaen Valerenga Oslo 3-0 Tromso IL Pick Valerenga WIN

$98.80 X 1.75 = $172.90
$172.90-$98.80 = $74.10
$74.10 X 0.05 = $3.7
$74.10 - $3.7 = $70.40

Current Line Debt = (-$129.63)+(+$70.40) = $59.23

Total Profit = Current line starting Bankroll - Current line debt - Total Investment
Total Profit = $752.58 - $59.23 - $600.00
Total Profit = $93.35

New Line (39.60)-(69.40)
Next Bet = $109


Record
11-9, 55.00%, +$93.35

[Nickos]

Pick # 21
2010-11-08 Ireland (Division Playoff) Bray Vs Monaghan Utd Pick Bray
Bet $109 @ 2.62

[Nickos]

Pick # 21
2010-11-08 Ireland (Division Playoff) Bray Vs Monaghan Utd Pick Bray
Bet $109 @ 2.62

2010-11-08 Ireland (Division Playoff) Bray 2-1 Monaghan Utd Pick Bray 1-1 Regular Time LOSS

Current Line Debt = (-$59.23)+(-$109) = $168.23

New Line (39.60)-(69.40)-(109)
Next Bet = $148.60

Pick #22

I'm going to say straight up that this is a risky game and I probably shouldn't play it! The home teams captain is out on suspension due to a red card from his last match, the team is injury stricken at the moment and they just came off the worst loss in club history 9-0 loss in their last match. Furthermore, their opponents away record is superb and they are performing well this year. However I'm going to back the home team being motivated to turn things around to get back on tract. A win for them also would end a bit of a bad run and close my current line at a positive. If this doesn't win less risky games will be my next few plays.

Pick #22

2010-11-09 Scottish Premier Aberdeen Vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle Pick Aberdeen

$33.37 @ 2.8
$115.23 @ 2.78

Game starts in 1 hour from now.

Record
11-10, 52.40%

[Nickos]

Pick #22

2010-11-09 Scottish Premier Aberdeen Vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle Pick Aberdeen

Scottish Premier Aberdeen 1-2 Inverness Caledonian Thistle Pick Aberdeen LOSS

Pick #23

2010-11-10 Italian Serie A Cesena Vs Lazio Pick Lazio
Bet: $188.20 @ 2.18

[Nickos]

Pick #23

2010-11-10 Italian Serie A Cesena Vs Lazio Pick Lazio
Bet: $188.20 @ 2.18

2010-11-10 Italian Serie A Cesena Vs Lazio Pick Lazio LOSS

Current Line (39.60)-(69-40)-(109)-(148.60)-(188.20)
Next Bet $227.80

Pick #24

2010-11-10 French 1 Monaco Vs Aries-Avignon Pick Monaco
Bet $227.80 @ 1.59

[Nickos]

Pick #25

2010-11-27 Dutch 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam Vs ADO Den Haag Pick Feyenoord

Bet $267.40 @ 2.16

[Nickos]

Pick #26

2010-11-27 Spanish 1 Racing Santander Vs Deportivo La Coruna Pick Santander

Bet $257.60 @ 2.22

[Nickos]

Pick #25 2010-11-27 Dutch 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam Vs ADO Den Haag Pick Feyenoord Bet $267.40 @ 2.16

Pick #26 2010-11-27 Spanish 1 Racing Santander Vs Deportivo La Coruna Pick Santander Bet $257.60 @ 2.22

Both Wins

+ $593.24 after todays games

New Line 109-148
Next Bet $257

New Line Debt $139.36

A win in the next game closes the line!

[Nickos]

Pick #27 Spanish 1 Real Sociedad Vs Athletic Bilbao Pick Real Sociedad

Bet $257 @ 2.44

[Nickos]

Pick #27 Spanish 1 Real Sociedad Vs Athletic Bilbao Pick Real Sociedad

Bet $257 @ 2.44

Real Sociedad 2-0 WIN

Profit = +$370.08 - (5% Commission) $18.50 = $351.58

Old Line Debt = (-$139.36)+(+351.58) = Line Profit +212.22