Cup football: Who's going to care?
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT BEFORE YOU READ THIS, IT AIN'T DIRECTLY A BETTING SYSTEM JUST A LITTLE METHOD I USE TO TRY AND WORK OUT WHICH TEAMS ARE GOING TO TRY IN CUP FOOTBALL.
Its a fairly common known trait that the really top teams dont always care about domestic cup competitions, they have bigger fish to fry, but if they hang around long enough they take it more seriously as the final stages approach. All I do to try and get a handle on which teams will take it seriously are split the league table from the previous season, and only pick teams which fit into that position who are facing teams who dont (ie top teams or lower division teams). So far as England goes I split the table from the previous season to the following:
2nd Round: Only teams who finished 11th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
3rd Round: Only teams who finished 9th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
4th Round: Only teams who finished 7th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
5th Round: Only teams who finished 5th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
Semi Finals: Only teams who finished 3rd-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
I only ever back teams who fit into the respective bracket depending on which round it is, and I only consider backing them if they are facing teams who are outside of the relevant bracket. This is no set system, but I believe that doing it that way gives a good indication of which teams will take it seriously and at which point they will do so. Some teams just have bigger fish to frazzle, its as simple as that.
Giving a live example (just for clarification) of teams that would fit the criteria, taking into account the 2008/2009 league table and using games for the 2009-2010 English league cup. The teams I would consider to be "trying" in each round would be:
2nd Round: Wigan, Stoke, Bolton, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Sunderland, Hull, Wolves, Birmingham, Burnley.
3rd Round: As Round 2 but adding West Ham and Manchester City.
4th Round: As Round 2 and 3, adding Fulham and Tottenham.
5th Round: As Rounds 2, 3 and 4, adding Everton and Aston Villa.
Semi Finals: As Rounds 2,3,4 and 5, adding Chelsea and Arsenal.
So i'd only CONSIDER backing those teams in the respective rounds against teams who didnt fit the bracket, ie if it was Wigan v Stoke in R2 I wouldnt do it since both teams theoretically would be "up for the game". You still need to do a modicum of capping and pick the right spots but using the above has always helped me avoid losing money on teams that dont care.
REMEMBER: THIS IS NOT A DIRECT SYSTEM, I HAVENT RESEARCHED IT ENOUGH. IT'S JUST A METHOD I'VE BEEN SUCCESSFUL WITH IN AVOIDING "TRAP" PLAYS BACKING TEAMS WHO DO NOT CARE.
Just for the record the above method in the 09/10 English League Cup went 18-8 on games that directly fit the criteria - but pick your spots and dont get burned. Its not as complicated as i've made it sound, but if anyone wants to know another example for this year or anything more explained then ask away.
I'm not expecting anyone to use it - just sharing the knowledge
Its a fairly common known trait that the really top teams dont always care about domestic cup competitions, they have bigger fish to fry, but if they hang around long enough they take it more seriously as the final stages approach. All I do to try and get a handle on which teams will take it seriously are split the league table from the previous season, and only pick teams which fit into that position who are facing teams who dont (ie top teams or lower division teams). So far as England goes I split the table from the previous season to the following:
2nd Round: Only teams who finished 11th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
3rd Round: Only teams who finished 9th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
4th Round: Only teams who finished 7th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
5th Round: Only teams who finished 5th-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
Semi Finals: Only teams who finished 3rd-17th (and the 3 promoted clubs)
I only ever back teams who fit into the respective bracket depending on which round it is, and I only consider backing them if they are facing teams who are outside of the relevant bracket. This is no set system, but I believe that doing it that way gives a good indication of which teams will take it seriously and at which point they will do so. Some teams just have bigger fish to frazzle, its as simple as that.
Giving a live example (just for clarification) of teams that would fit the criteria, taking into account the 2008/2009 league table and using games for the 2009-2010 English league cup. The teams I would consider to be "trying" in each round would be:
2nd Round: Wigan, Stoke, Bolton, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Sunderland, Hull, Wolves, Birmingham, Burnley.
3rd Round: As Round 2 but adding West Ham and Manchester City.
4th Round: As Round 2 and 3, adding Fulham and Tottenham.
5th Round: As Rounds 2, 3 and 4, adding Everton and Aston Villa.
Semi Finals: As Rounds 2,3,4 and 5, adding Chelsea and Arsenal.
So i'd only CONSIDER backing those teams in the respective rounds against teams who didnt fit the bracket, ie if it was Wigan v Stoke in R2 I wouldnt do it since both teams theoretically would be "up for the game". You still need to do a modicum of capping and pick the right spots but using the above has always helped me avoid losing money on teams that dont care.
REMEMBER: THIS IS NOT A DIRECT SYSTEM, I HAVENT RESEARCHED IT ENOUGH. IT'S JUST A METHOD I'VE BEEN SUCCESSFUL WITH IN AVOIDING "TRAP" PLAYS BACKING TEAMS WHO DO NOT CARE.
Just for the record the above method in the 09/10 English League Cup went 18-8 on games that directly fit the criteria - but pick your spots and dont get burned. Its not as complicated as i've made it sound, but if anyone wants to know another example for this year or anything more explained then ask away.
I'm not expecting anyone to use it - just sharing the knowledge
