Nickos' Italian Serie A Picks 2010-11

[Nickos]

Hey everyone,

Welcome to my new tread for Serie A picks. Some of you may have seen my week 7 picks in another tread but from now on my weekly picks are going to be posted here. I have had an excellent start at punting the Serie A this season and I hope to continue. The last two weeks i hit 70% on exact results. My favorite is to put a small wager on a of 5-7 matchs and hope it hits big. This season alone i have hit almost $6,000 from my Italian parlays off bets less than $10! Week 1 saw me off with 5.5 K!

I'm not asking anyone to follow me or my picks, this is mainly for record keeping. I'm happy to discuss why I think certain results will happen to anyone who wishes to. Suggestions are also welcome. Good luck all and I hope you enjoy my new tread.

Nickos

[smcc716]

Sounds good Nickos!! I have also been following Plus Lines Totals for awhile now! Hopefully the streak the are on keeps up!! Looking forward to tracking your selections!!

[Nickos]

Well its almost my favorite time of the week! Its thursday night here in Australia on a night where I should be studying but I have decided to analyze the Serie A instead in preparation of this weekends Italian fixtures.

This week here are the following match-ups!

Bologna - Juventus
Chievo - Cesena
Fiorentina - Bari
Genoa - Catania
Inter - Sampdoria
Lazio - Cagliari
Lecce - Brescia
Napoli - Milan
Parma - Roma
Udinese - Palermo

According to the statisticians over at soccerwinners.com here are the percentages of each result

Fiorentina Bari
50% 32% 19%

Bologna Juventus
32% 36% 32%

Chievo. Cesena
55% 28% 17%
Genoa Catania
51% 31% 19%

Inter Sampdoria
56% 27% 17%

Lazio. Cagliari
52% 30% 18%

Lecce Brescia
48% 32% 20%

Parma Roma
29% 27% 44%

Udinese Palermo
35% 35% 30%

Napoli Milan
40% 34% 26%

Value bets as calculated (given odds X %),
Calculations based on odds received in the present time at bookmaker BetFair.
Odds and values are subject to change as the events near and and as they start receiving bets in order to balance their books.

These are the highest value bets I have calculated for each match, some may have two outcomes that are considered value, however I'm just listing what appears to be the best value at the given time for each match. Any value over 100 I consider value from my calculations. The higher the number the more perceived value on the given outcome. I know some people like to calculate the values with the percentage being a decimal instead of a whole number but I prefer it this way.

Fiorentina - Bari
Draw 32% @ 3.6 = 115

Bologna - Juventus
Bologna 32% @ 4.7 = 150.4

Chievo - Cesena
Chievo 55% @ 1.93 = 105.15

Genoa - Catania
Draw 31% @ 3.6 = 111.6

Inter - Sampdoria
Sampdoria 17% @ 7.0 = 119

Lazio - Cagliari
Cagliari 18% @ 5.8. = 104.4

Lecce - Brescia
Lecce 48% @ 2.42 = 116.16

Parma - Roma
Roma 44% @ 2.52

Udinese - Palermo
Draw 35% @ 3.2 = 112

Napoli - Milan
Napoli 40% @ 3.05 = 122

Now I'm not saying that these picks are final and 100% my selections yet, more work still needs to be done but this is my base for selections at the the moment. Articles need to be read, referees and players are obviously factors and need to be taken into consideration. I will post my final selections before game time.

Hope this helps for those Serie A fans out there!

[Nickos]

Alright its discussion time as I get time I will try to post one for each game but I'm going to start today off with Chievo at home to Cesena.

Last week both teams played well to get practically no points. Chievo was away to AC Milan where their only goal came from an own goal by Ibrahimovic in the 70th minute to at least get them on the board in their 3-1 defeat. Cesena played host to Parma in their fixture last week to see them both off with a point although Parma controlled 70% of the possession and a few excellent chances early in the second half. Last weeks results saw the end to Cesena's 3 game losing streak and the start of Chievo's 3 game winless streak.

Both clubs know that they are in a battle to stay alive and avoid relegation and I expect this to be a hard played match. However it seems to be more of a critical situation for the home side. They appear focused and ready to win after dropping the bomb in their last two home matches against table toppers Lazio and Brescia 1-0. “We need to forget about Milan and just concentrate on Cesena,” said full-back Andrea Mantovani on Wednesday. “It’s a game against a direct rival and is thus very important for us.”

The pressure is off Cesena after breaking their losing streak. The newly promoted club had a dream start to their campaign drawing Roma and beating AC Milan in their first two matches and now as the clubs start to get adjusted we are starting to see the true powers emerge and the things start to balance out. In a statement after the Parma match the manager stated, "After those losses I did fear that it could hit us psychologically, but I saw a lively side who reacted well against Parma.”

I expect a fierce match here, probably many fouls depending on the referee of the day maybe even a sending off... or two. This is a big rivalry as even striker Erjon Bogdani will be battling hard to score against his former club, on Sunday

Opinion: 2-1 Chievo

[Nickos]

Still not studying but I think I'm going to finish one more review before bed.

Okay Fiorentina -Bari, here we go!

Huge disappointment to the visitors Fiorentina last week as they blew a 1-0 lead late in the game as to much of their disappointment and my delight as Sampdoria claimed all three points and sealed the deal on my $5, 5 game parlay to win me $550 and my second Serie A parlay win of the season putting me at a surplus of over $6,000 from a total of $22 bet! Anyways enough touting my own horn, I hope I can hit again this week or in future weeks but I'm not psychic anything can happen, anyone can win as the slogan goes for Proline for those of you who live in Ontario!

Alright back on topic, despite veteran Fiorentina players Adrian Mutu and Christiano Zanetti out due to injury and the calculated value on the draw I like Forentina in this fixture. Just way to much is on the line for them this week and they have all the support of the home fans to help guide them in the right direction. If sports handicapping has tought me anything it has tought me that motivated teams and players win, skill means shit if a team is not motivated.

Motivation can be from come from many places, relationships with staff/managers, money or even players will be more motivated in derby matches. When it comes to managers if the players don't respect their manager they won't play hard for them, VC versa it's the managers job to make sure the player are motivated to get top performance put of them. In the case of the Fiorentina manager Sinisa Mihajlovic if he doesn't succeed in this task this weekend he could be the first manager to get fired this season. I'm predicting that Mihajlovic gets the job done as I have read he has a good relationship with his players especially Adem Ljajic who according to soccer italia, No one has benefited as much from Mihajlovic’s appointment, or stands to lose as much from his dismissal, as his young compatriot Ljajic. The teen was a little boy lost last term, vindicating Manchester United’s decision to renege on their deal to sign him, but under Mihajlovic’s tutelage Ljajic has more than proved his worth as a first team regular.

I expect a home win here.

Opinion: Fiorentina 2-0

[Nickos]

In the case of the Fiorentina manager Sinisa Mihajlovic if he doesn't succeed in this task this weekend he could be the first manager to get fired this season.

Upon further reading of recent articles it appears position as Fiorentina manager is safe. It was stated by the president that he is not the problem, that sluggish player performance has been the issue. The players and fans really do seem to back their man in charge and they seem to be well prepared to escape the hole they have dug for themselves thus far. Fiorentina are will not finish this poorly and will turn things around especially when the drug ban on Mutu's head is lifted. My pick doesn't change but I just wanted to to correct my statements that Mihajlovic may get sacked.

[Nickos]

Let's talk about the big guns this weekend! Last weekend saw the extremely rare occurrence of all 4 major clubs (AC Milan, Inter, Juventus and Roma all recording wins. This happens less than most people are probably aware of, usually only twice per season from the statistics I have looked up. Rare enough to happen once, to happen twice in a row would be even more unlikely. So someone has to go down this week, who's it going to be? In my opinion Roma has had their fair share of downs this season and had usually been the one to take the fall but I have started to see some positive things come from Roma lately and Im expecting them to grab an away victory at Parma who could be bottom of the table after this weekend. AC Milan are at Napoli on Monday in what I think will be the best game of the week. Napoli are strong especially at home and having been held to a nil-nil draw against Liverpool in the Europa league with a ball that was inches from going over the line, I think they will be hungry against visitors AC Milan. In Champions league action, AC Milan recorded a 2-0 loss to the famous Real Madrid with Ronaldo and Ozil scoring in Madrid. From what I have read AC Milan plan on changing some things around form this fixture against Napoli, they will be benching some key players as the manager feels all the superstars don't need to be on the pitch at the same time. He is trying some younger players and so new combinations in attempt to produce more goals. This game could easily be a Draw as both are matched up well but Im leaning towards the home side here. Inter are host to Sampdoria in a match I find hard to pick. Inter has been my favourite club since Baggio played for them way back in the day and I try my best not to let favouritism play a role in matches they play. However Eto is hot right now and is the most in-form striker in Europe. Sampdoria have their hands full in the task of keeping him off the score sheet. Sampdoria is coming off a come back win against Fiorentina last weekend and Inter is coming off a 4-3 win against spurs in which they played up a man from the 8th minuet on. Bologna are at home to Juventus who come off a 1-1 Draw in europe and a 4-0 crushing of Lecce last week. Bologna are desperate for points to stay away from the bottom where as Juventus seeks to edge even closer to the top of the table. Del Piero who is unlikely to start is only one goal away from being Juventus all time top scorer so look for him to be looking for that goal from one of his dangerous free kicks late on in the game. Juventus have not had much time to prepare for this fixture and in that I don't feel they will earn full points. Juventus fate depends on how much the Europa League fixture took out of their legs.

Opinions:

Inter - Sampdoria Inter 1-0

Bologna - Juventus. Draw 1-1

Napoli - AC Milan. Napoli 3-2

Parma - Roma. Roma 2-1

[Nickos]

I expect a home win here.

Opinion: Fiorentina 2-0

This game is over Fiorentina 2-0 in the 90 min.... Then Bari scores final 2-1, just missed correct score but at least got the result.

I will start my totals from my week 7 thread


Record

This week 1-0
Total 8-3

[Mexes]

Opinions:

Inter - Sampdoria Inter 1-0

Bologna - Juventus. Draw 1-1

Napoli - AC Milan. Napoli 3-2

Parma - Roma. Roma 2-1

I like your opinions
but I think that the napoli game might end up in a draw [2-2] and in this moment I would not bet on roma... ranieri is close to be sacked...

di vaio should score for bologna

[zlate22]

hink juve will win they play very good lately

[Nickos]

I like your opinions
but I think that the napoli game might end up in a draw [2-2] and in this moment I would not bet on roma... ranieri is close to be sacked...

di vaio should score for bologna

Thanks Mexes, yea I think the game of the week is going to be Napoli - Milan! I think a draw is very possible too and perhaps the best bets for this fixture would not be on Napoli but over 2.5 or a lay on Milan for this fixture. However, What makes me lean towards Napoli a little more is I think that Napoli is solid at home, one of it not the best in the league on their home grounds. AC Milan hasn't proven to be the that sensational away from the San Siro consistently. Also, I know that AC are trying some new player combinations and possibly formations today so I just don't expect it to be 100 % cohesive... yet. In time I'm sure their experiments will work out and they will fine tune a balance for their superstars but I don't think they get it exactly right the first try especially against solid Napoli.

Very True about Ranieri, he is not doing a good job and I reading mixed articles about the players take on him. In one article I read how Totti was furious with him and in the next article it said something about Totti being delighted with his manager so I don't know what to believe. I like Roma in this game because Parma is not a hard target to hit, they are struggling big time and I think that as of lately Roma has improved and Along with their Roman Rivals Lazio they have tended to have a successful away record.

[Nickos]

di vaio should score for bologna

Di Vaio has been on fire lately, and a very valued player at Bologna. I would not be surprised to see this as no one else seems to be producing for Bologna. I do think that he will have a tough time tho because not only does Bologna know how hot he is right now, so do Juventus and the other clubs I'm sure. Anyways here's a decent article on Di Vaio I just came across whilst checking the Italian News.

Bologna boss Alberto Malesani doesn’t think Juventus depend on Milos Krasic. “The trouble is we depend on Marco Di Vaio.”
The Bianconeri have struggled to find consistency and their Europa League draw with Salzburg suggested they are dependent on Krasic.

“I don’t agree. I think Krasic is like many players who are going through a golden moment and are really fired up,” said the Coach.

“Juve are to be feared all the way round the team. If anything, we are dependent on an individual, as at the moment Di Vaio is the only one to score and prove dangerous. It’s a fact and can be a limitation for us."

Di Vaio has scored five of their total eight goals this season and is the only Bologna player to have netted more than once.

“This is a much stronger Juventus side than it was last season and has been revolutionised. A bit like Bologna, they have started a new era.”

Malesani also recalled an unhappy encounter with Juventus back on May 7, 2000, when a 1-1 draw at the 89th minute evaporated because of the referee.

“When I was Coach of Parma and Massimo De Santis disallowed Fabio Cannavaro’s goal against Juve, I decided to be a gentleman and say nothing,” explained Malesani.

“Afterwards everyone, including designators Pierluigi Pairetto and Paolo Bergamo, thanked me. They said I’d done the right thing not to stir up controversy.

“Maybe I made a mistake in staying quiet, as not everyone back then was such a gentleman. I realised afterwards there was something a bit strange and being a gentleman doesn’t always pay off. The past is behind us now.”

[Nickos]

Well I have 4 other games to pick this week and without going into huge details on why I'm picking these results right now because I'm kinda tired and need a nap since the fixtures are early in morning for me, that's the shitty thing about living in Sydney.

Genoa - Catania
2-2 Draw

Udinese - Palermo
1-1 Draw

Lecce - Brescia
3-1 Lecce

Lazio - Cagliari
2-1 Cagliari

[Nickos]

Not the best week so far with one game to go.

Here are the scores from this week so far with only the AC Milan - Napoli game left to play.

Fiorentina 2-1 Bari (Correct Result)
Parma 0-0 Roma
Bologna 0-0 Juventus. (Correct Result)
Chievo 2-1 Cesena (Correct score & Result)
Genoa 1-0 Catania
Lazio 2-1 Cagliari
Lecce 2-1 Brescia (Correct Result)
Udinese 2-1 Palermo
Inter 1-1 Sampdoria


2-1 for the home side seemed to be the scoreline of choice this week with 5/9 matches ending this way so far. This see my pick percentage down 30% from my previous two weeks unless Napoli win in that case i will be 50% for the week at 5/10 correct results.

[Nickos]

Record to date on all Italian Serie A Matches from week 7 onwards

Correct Result
11-8. 57.9%

Correct Score
3-16 15.9%

[Wilforth]

Nickos,

It appears you're leaning on Napoli. Somehow, I just think AC Milan will take the 3 points in a 2-1 win. I don't see a draw in that game but I doubt the home side will win it.

[Greekbet]

NAPOLI-MILAN
I think Napoli will push to win and gain at least one position while Milan will be put in the position of the team that has to face the offensive power of Napoli's great attack.i exlude milan to win.

[Clay Davis]

I reckon this game got goals in it. Milan with massive offense power against a Napoli defense without Cannavaro. Remember last year how Pato was running in circles around the Napoli defenders? Also Milan will miss Thiago Silva. First game with Sokratis and Nesta as cb´s.

Good luck!

[Nickos]

Alright so last weekend sucked! I'm not happy with 4/10. I expect to keep on track with 7 correct results and 2-3 correct scores and if better... bonus. I have some pre-emptive picks for this week end coming. I know it's a long time away still and lots more to analyze but this is what I'm working with at the moment.

Bari - Udinese (1-1 draw)
Roma - Lecce (3-0 Roma)
AC Milan - Juventus (2-0 Milan)
Palermo - Lazio (1-0 Palermo)
Brescia - Napoli (1-1 Draw)
Cagliari - Bologna (2-1 Cagliari)
Cesena - Sampdoria (0-1 Sampdoria)
Parma - Cheivo (1-0 Parma)
Catania - Fiorentina (2-2 Draw)
Genoa - Inter (1-2 Inter)

Feedback welcome!

[pankaj000]

I would not bet on roma... ranieri is close to be sacked...

[Nickos]

I would not bet on roma... ranieri is close to be sacked...

I do agree that backing Roma is risky and in fact after more research I will probably change my predicted score-line down a goal or two. I haven't decided what I'm doing betting wise at the moment but I don't bet on all the games on here, this is simply my prediction forum and I will attempt every game each week. I could easily emiminate the risky games I'm unsure about to increase my prediction percentage but I want my percentage to reflect all games played. Bet wise, I prefer a few low risk high reward multis for a little fun each week. In the case where I might lose $10-15 but could win a few thousand, I find that exciting and I look forward to each weekends suspense!

Regarding Ranieri, players don't seem to appear to happy that's for sure with 3 of the players already requesting transfers in January but the board of directions seem to be backing the manager. According to ESPN, your statement about Ranieri being close to being sacked is false. I have included the article if you want to read it, it was posted two days ago.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=835980&sec=europe&cc=3888

[Sharpener]

Do you show the Pluslinesports soccer site, which is(Soccerbettingmasters.com) streak as 17-2 as I do?

Today's game is looking good as well at halftime. Will it go to 18-2?

Keep up the great work!

[Nickos]

With Inters win last night my new record on all matches in the Serie A since match day 7 is;

Correct Result 12-9, 57.14%
Correct Score 3-18, 14.29 %

[protein]

How sure Your lean on MIlan is?

[mats9863]

Consider Roma- Lecce.
I am suggesting a lil attempt on Lecce winn (+835 by expekt) or Goal Away Team (+200 about).
Roma is rich of talents but coming across societary issues( players not been paid since July).
Fisting all my fingers
Good luck

[SiMON2g]

Good luck, I'm on Milan also for today's game, will end 1-0 I think.

[mats9863]

Good luck, I'm on Milan also for today's game, will end 1-0 I think.

naaaa...juventus'll grab at least 1 point

[SiMON2g]

naaaa...juventus'll grab at least 1 point

It's a possibility, but decent value on Milan, so I took it.

[mats9863]

Milan- juventus

It's a possibility, but decent value on Milan, so I took it.

Not only 1 , the whole 3 points. A lot of ppl betted on Milan :-)
GL 4 tomorrow

[Carusiii]

good win by juventus haha

[protein]

good win by juventus haha

What´s about the hahaa? Go **** yourself somwhere else. The guy is making good job and you come here to shit the thread.

[JOHON8]

naaaa...juventus'll grab at least 1 point

This right here shows that your knowledge in Serie A is better than most people.

Juve just beat Milan 2-1 in San Siro, anyone who says Milan wasn't winning knows what they are talking about in this situation. GJ

[cogiditopapa]

This right here shows that your knowledge in Serie A is better than most people.

Juve just beat Milan 2-1 in San Siro, anyone who says Milan wasn't winning knows what they are talking about in this situation. GJ

Agreed!