Hercules vs. Villareal
Hercules +165
Villareal +140
Draw +215
Hercules PK -105
Villareal PK -135
Stats:
W-D-L record: 2-1-3 vs 5-0-1
Goals scored: 6 vs 12
Goals conceded: 6 vs 4
The stats above easily point to a Villareal win. But will it be that easy? Let's look at the records of Villareal on the road and Hercules at home:
On the road, Villareal won at Malaga and Levante and lost at Real Sociedad. Overall, they've scored 5 and conceded 4.
At home, Hercules have only one win (against Sevilla) and have lost to Valencia and Atletico Bilbao. Overall, they've scored 3 and conceded 3.
Analysis:
1) Two road wins at Malaga and Levante doesn't make Villareal a good road team, more so that Malaga have lost all their home games and Levante have lost 2 of their L4 home games.
2) Scoring 5 and conceding 4 gives Villareal a paltry road GD of only +1. Such a stat doesn't make them a decisive road favorite especially when you consider the quality of the teams they've faced on the road.
3) Hercules may have a home-losing record but a home GD of 0 (3 scored and 3 conceded) suggests they're not as bad as their W-L record would suggest.
4) Hercules lost their last game at Getafe and they're yet to lose 2 straight games in the league.
5) Hercules were shutout in their last league game and they've won the next game after each shutout.
6) Villareal have now won their last 5 league games. Villareal aren't known for very long winning streaks, especially given their vulnerable road defense. I fear that Villareal may have reached their maximum win-streak capacity.
The draw line of +215 suggests a draw is very likely, but I'd go with:
Hercules +165
Thoughts
Hercules +165
Villareal +140
Draw +215
Hercules PK -105
Villareal PK -135
Stats:
W-D-L record: 2-1-3 vs 5-0-1
Goals scored: 6 vs 12
Goals conceded: 6 vs 4
The stats above easily point to a Villareal win. But will it be that easy? Let's look at the records of Villareal on the road and Hercules at home:
On the road, Villareal won at Malaga and Levante and lost at Real Sociedad. Overall, they've scored 5 and conceded 4.
At home, Hercules have only one win (against Sevilla) and have lost to Valencia and Atletico Bilbao. Overall, they've scored 3 and conceded 3.
Analysis:
1) Two road wins at Malaga and Levante doesn't make Villareal a good road team, more so that Malaga have lost all their home games and Levante have lost 2 of their L4 home games.
2) Scoring 5 and conceding 4 gives Villareal a paltry road GD of only +1. Such a stat doesn't make them a decisive road favorite especially when you consider the quality of the teams they've faced on the road.
3) Hercules may have a home-losing record but a home GD of 0 (3 scored and 3 conceded) suggests they're not as bad as their W-L record would suggest.
4) Hercules lost their last game at Getafe and they're yet to lose 2 straight games in the league.
5) Hercules were shutout in their last league game and they've won the next game after each shutout.
6) Villareal have now won their last 5 league games. Villareal aren't known for very long winning streaks, especially given their vulnerable road defense. I fear that Villareal may have reached their maximum win-streak capacity.
The draw line of +215 suggests a draw is very likely, but I'd go with:
Hercules +165
Thoughts
lols
