Which of these will hit this weekend?

[Wilforth]

England: Sunderland +450 (to surprise the impeccable Arsenal)

Germany:
1) Koln +1050 (to hand Bayern their first home loss of the season)
2) Bayern Munich/Koln draw +525 (or Koln to stifle Bayern)

Italy: AC Milan/Catania draw +425 (Catania to deny Milan a home win)

Netherlands: Heracles +400 (to teach Twente a lesson)

Spain: Hercules +220 (to bring down the "high-flying" Valencia)


I have reasons why I think a profitable number of the above picks could cash this weekend. But I want to know what the soccer forum thinks about those picks.

Let me just briefly shed some light on the Bayern/Koln confrontation. At home, Bayern are 1-3-1 against Koln!!!
So even at the best of times, Bayern don't have much of an edge at home against Koln. One good thing is that Bayern have not conceded a goal in their last 2 home games. That's very good for us because it's a taboo for Bayern to keep a clean sheet in 3 straight home games. It's also good that Koln didn't score in their last visit to Bayern (0-0 was the score). Koln have not been shutout at Bayern twice in a row. This implies that:

Koln will score a minimum of 1 goal by default .


I'll eventually post what I consider the best 2 of the above leans with reasons.

[JOHON8]

Sunderland can draw Arsenal, the handicap is also worth a shot with them at home IMO to be safe since Arsenal is in ridiculously good form.

Hercules ML vs Valencia is the one that has value.

Bayern and Milan got their groove in the CL games and IMO don't want to ruin it in the league games.

[Wilforth]

Sunderland can draw Arsenal, the handicap is also worth a shot with them at home IMO to be safe since Arsenal is in ridiculously good form.

Hercules ML vs Valencia is the one that has value.

Bayern and Milan got their groove in the CL games and IMO don't want to ruin it in the league games.

Maybe last year's result in the games involving these 2 teams may give us a clue as to what could happen this year:

Bayern 0-0 Koln
AC Milan 2-2 Catania

I'm not necessarily suggesting both Bayern and Milan will be held to a draw, but I'm expecting that at least one of the 2 won't win.

[JogoBonito]

Hercules vs Valencia is the play here. Hercules will come out inspired after their surprising visit win against Barcelona, also they have Valdez which is a great striker that already scored 2 goals against Valencia with Wender Bremen in the Europa league. Add the young talented KIKO, maybe a good match for Drenthe also and Trezeguet and you can have an easy win against an average Valencia.

[Wilforth]

I also forgot to mention:

Feyenoord +375 (at home against Ajax)
The last 3 meetings at Feyenoord have all ended in draws. Ajax go into this game off a UEFA road game.

[Sportslover]

I think Sunderland has a decent chance at a draw against Arsenal.

Not a fan of the Arsenal defence and Sunderland has players like Gyan and Bent who can take advantage of any defensive mistakes.

[Wilforth]

I think Sunderland has a decent chance at a draw against Arsenal.

Not a fan of the Arsenal defence and Sunderland has players like Gyan and Bent who can take advantage of any defensive mistakes.

I'd like to think that:
1) The absence of Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott from the lineup will soon begin to affect Arsenal's offense
2) Sunderland's home win over Man City was no fluke

[spargament]

seems like the blue and the red are the only predictable things in the premiership

[ararat2010]

like the contrarian mood on this matches - hope they will cash. like Catania and Hercules mostly. BOL )))

[PickApprentice]

Hi all

I would also like to point out one thing about Sunderland v Arsenal. The one play that I like is under 2.5. Good value at 2.00, consider that in the past five meetings, results were 2-0, 1-0, 0-0,1-1, 0-1. The last 3 meetings with Sunderland at home had the following score: 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1. I see great value in under 2.5.

I think it is going to be a close call on this game, would definitely prefer the under 2.5 play.

I think Hercules has to be the best value play here, they beat Barcelona away, and at the beginning of the season, newly promoted teams tend to hit a good run, look at the old Hull, Portsmouth and Wigan when they first came to the premier league. Even Blackpool this season has done well. So, I willn't dismiss the chance of Hercules winning.

The Koln looks like a draw to me. 1-3-1, all the writing for a draw, plus Bayern has a champions league game where they left it late.

[JOHON8]

Hi all

I would also like to point out one thing about Sunderland v Arsenal. The one play that I like is under 2.5. Good value at 2.00, consider that in the past five meetings, results were 2-0, 1-0, 0-0,1-1, 0-1. The last 3 meetings with Sunderland at home had the following score: 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1. I see great value in under 2.5.

I think it is going to be a close call on this game, would definitely prefer the under 2.5 play.

I think Hercules has to be the best value play here, they beat Barcelona away, and at the beginning of the season, newly promoted teams tend to hit a good run, look at the old Hull, Portsmouth and Wigan when they first came to the premier league. Even Blackpool this season has done well. So, I willn't dismiss the chance of Hercules winning.

The Koln looks like a draw to me. 1-3-1, all the writing for a draw, plus Bayern has a champions league game where they left it late.

good observation but I don't think past form really matters given the form of these 2 teams recently for the under. Arsenal is by far much more mature and goal prolific than the last few years, and Sunderland has a much stronger offense than I can remember.

[skrtelfan]

Hercules is an interesting situation I wonder how teams off a win as a 50/1 dog or higher tend to do in their next game? Must be a small sample size though.

[nulldah]

good observation but I don't think past form really matters given the form of these 2 teams recently for the under. Arsenal is by far much more mature and goal prolific than the last few years, and Sunderland has a much stronger offense than I can remember.

not agree about more mature and goal prolific part.

fine, they've scored 16 goals home, but.. they only scored 3 goals away.

more mature? It can't be proven until fabregas is injured or whatever reason (not that i wish).

[lakerboy]

i like the milan /catania draw.

[Pauulzcappin]

Hercules is the best choice, they have a decent team

[tailmypicks]

sunderland will have to play 5 in the midfield if they intend to jam the arsenal midfield
that means bent playing as an advanced midfielder
and we know the only role he is good at is playing as a finisher
Bent as a winger, no cattermole and cesc in full flow
Sunderland is the popular play but i think arsenal won't crumble this early in the season

[PickApprentice]

Just checked Hércules form last season at home. 16-1-4. Looks really interesting, and I think they have a good shot to cause an upset. They dropped home points against teams from the bottom half of the table. This shows that if they want to play sriously, they can. Goin 10% of my bankroll on Hércules win.

GL all!!

[hedgejob]

Bayern Munich/Koln draw +525
AC Milan/Catania draw +425

[Wilforth]

i like the milan /catania draw.

Bayern Munich/Koln draw +525
AC Milan/Catania draw +425

Now, 2 of those have cashed. Sunderland fell short but they held Arsenal to a draw. In all, we've now seen that Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and AC Milan didn't win.

[Pauulzcappin]

by law of averages, tomorrow is gonna be a favorite blood bath

[lakerboy]

Nice calls Wil. Too bad i didnt take the one i liked.

[Sportslover]

Nice calls Wilforth!

Arsenal, Bayern and Milan all held to draws today.

[ararat2010]

VEEEERY WELL - that was just fantastic! Thank you Wilforth keep goin pls

[Wilforth]

ararat2010,

Thanks for the points.

[fuglyboy86hi]

wow willforth.. very nice picks , specially on draw lines.!!

[JOHON8]

by law of averages, tomorrow is gonna be a favorite blood bath

Depending on which leagues you're talking about, a lot of favorites won today.