+EV play tomorrow on corners in eng/ger game

[vyomguy]

The number of corners for england vs germany has been set at o10 (+110) / u10 (-150).

The lines on corners are not usually that sharp as the limits are low and most people dont play these. Hence, sometimes these lines provide lot of value.

Tomorrow's line in england and germany game has lot of value on the OVER for corners. England have averaged 9.66 corners per game in this world cup and germany have averaged 6 corners per game in this world cup. The number of corners in this game should be set around 12-13 for this match atleast. But the oddsmakers have pretty much stuck with 10/10.5 corners in every game in this world cup and havent adjusted properly to this game. They have been juicing the under all through the world cup and are continuing to do so in this game as well.

Take the over on the corners in this game...it has lot of value at +110. I have learnt a lot from this forum. Time to give back some .

[chrisharvard01]

interesting.

GL

[lasker]

Thank you vyomguy. Great analysis, best of luck.

[vitalyo]

Great post . TNX

GL.

[shari91]

One of my books has total corners 9-11 inclusive +160 and over 11 +210 so I guess my best bet is to put some on both and walk away with profit. Based on what you said, this seems like a smarter play for me than anything else in this match.

Thanks vyom!!

[vitalyo]

Bet365 has them 3way
Over 10 2.10 Exactly 10 8.00 Under 10 2.00

Asian Total Corners
Over 10 1.975 Under 10 1.825

BEST ODDS
188bet
Over Under
Under 9.5 1.880 Over 9.5 1.940

Over for $500 thinking to bet more . I love betting corners pre game and live .

GL

[Mr.Kitty]

Good post, over 10 at BetPhoenix are +125/2.25

[rumple]

wonder if this is a sucker bet, Ill take a shot anyhow.

[whitedogau]

9 or less is evens at Betfair....will lay that

[TeamTT]

Goodluck, my book has u10, exacty 11 and o12.. Thinking of thinking over 12

[shari91]

One of the Australian books has over 9.5 for -110 so I took that instead for a decent amount.

Don't even care who wins anymore - I'll just be praying for corners the whole time.

[nj6]

wonder if this is a sucker bet, Ill take a shot anyhow.

It is, who bets on corners, this one is going under.

[mozomboking]

taking england at a pick-120

[radishman]

o10 +125 @ pinny

[ANGRYBLACK]

OVER 9 at 1.833 Bet365

[vitalyo]

OVER 9 at 1.833 Bet365

bet365 moved the line from 10 to 9 .3 way bet

Corners
Over 9 1.83 Exactly 9 7.50 Under 9 2.30

AH Over 10 2.15 Under 10 1.675


bet188
drop the odds to 1.80 Over 9.5 AH. I am glad i took them at 1.94


GL.

[rgbraves]

thanks for the info

[Z_Wipf]

Good analysis

[rumple]

5 at halftime but not confident, had a lucky flurry of 4 in a couple minutes.

[JOHON8]

This is def. hitting now, England's pulling way more corners in the 2nd half to go for the 2nd, and Germany will be having more contested shots.

[shari91]

5 at halftime but not confident, had a lucky flurry of 4 in a couple minutes.

Have faith my rumply friend. This is my big bet of the match.

[ANGRYBLACK]

Will Bet365 cancel my wager if I throw in an under 10 to go with my over 9? I'm trying to break even on corners. I already have money on Germany...

[shari91]

Will Bet365 cancel my wager if I throw in an under 10 to go with my over 9? I'm trying to break even on corners. I already have money on Germany...

They shouldn't. Isn't that just like hedging a totals bet at half time in the NBA?

[shari91]

Thank you vyom!!!

Although I must admit I was crapping myself near the end.

[vitalyo]

5 at halftime but not confident, had a lucky flurry of 4 in a couple minutes.

No this is not lucky flurry . This is how corners come, sometimes 2-3 at the time . Top 5 europian leagues average 1 corner for every 8 min .
Leagues will vary . So the teams when they play each other.
If it would be 1 goal game we would see at least 12 corners . It's not unusual to see 3-4 corners in the last 5 min + added time .(if home team is losing by a goal (league games) .Or if strong favorite losing by a goal.


This is how you find a value :


Chelsea at Home
Average. Corners For: 7.4
Av. Corners Against: 3.3
Av. Total Corner: 10.7
Av. Margin: 4.10


Chelsea Away
Av. Corners For: 7.5
Av. Corners Against: 5
Av. Total Corner: 12.5
Av. Margin: 2.5


Chelsea HOME and on the ROAD - corners vary almost by 2 corners per game . Margin has a value too .


French league 1:

Montpellier at Home
Av. Corners For: 4.8
Av. Corners Against: 2.8
Av. Total Corner: 7.6
Av. Margin: +2


Montpellier Away
Av. Corners For: 3.2
Av. Corners Against: 4.5
Av. Total Corner: 7.7
Av. Margin: -1.2

Montpellier betting under and margin is just a gravy .

This stats are gold . I have stats for 11 leagues . Team stats and head to head HEHEHE .

Corners is the dark side for the books . A specially league games .Less known league games.
TRY TO FIND THIS STATS .
Russian league corners IN and ALLOWED

www.sovsport.ru/football/russia/premier-stat/105


Live corners betting is another thing . You need to know more then stats .

BEST ODDS
188bet
Over Under
Under 9.5 1.880 Over 9.5 1.940

Over for $500 thinking to bet more . I love betting corners pre game and live .

GL

I made over $1000 on this market .

[Mr.Kitty]

Good post Vitalyo.

You can often find good situations live if you have some knowlege, like for instance today with ENG-GER match where Germany was leading the corners at HT with 3-2. If you look at the statistics England had created an average of 9.66 corners per game and Germany 6. Germany was leading the match 2-1 so England need to attack. Here we have a good oportunity to bet that England will win the corners at +money. This is only a good stategy when you have some stats to back it up or/and know the team is capable of getting the job done. Betting on corners is underrated.

[vitalyo]

Good post Vitalyo.

You can often find good situations live if you have some knowlege, like for instance today with ENG-GER match where Germany was leading the corners at HT with 3-2. If you look at the statistics England had created an average of 9.66 corners per game and Germany 6. Germany was leading the match 2-1 so England need to attack. Here we have a good oportunity to bet that England will win the corners at +money. This is only a good stategy when you have some stats to back it up or/and know the team is capable of getting the job done. Betting on corners is underrated.

.
Books are lucky that this game got out of hand . England wasn't pushing hard enough and Germans didn't wanna attack . Most of the guys took 10 and pushed .
If i take 3 way i always back exact # .
GL.