Finding value in Soccer in-game betting (Video)

[Justin7]

[sharpcat]

Good video Justin

What do I have to do to get an early copy of your book?

[Justin7]

Good video Justin

What do I have to do to get an early copy of your book?

I'm not sure I'll be giving it out early, but it will be in the point store. It will probably be around the price of a $25 gift card.

[blackf1re]

You can tell you're American by the way you say UEFA.

But good video.

[iceminers26]

Enjoyed the video being a value bettor myself, good work

[Dark Horse]

Looking forward to your book.

I have to chew on what you just said in the video. Is it true that an early goal changes the style of play? Or should that concept be combined with the idea that there are high scoring and low scoring teams? And what about the difference between the knockout stages and the group phase?

Team-specific example for knockout stage: Italy takes early 1-0 lead, in 25th minute. Does that increase the changes of an over, or are they perfectly capable of closing things up and take the 1-0 to the finish line? This would be a very different scenario than when a high scoring team like Holland falls behind 0-1 early.

(There may be teams, like Germany, that change their style of play more than others when they fall behind early. For other teams it won't make much difference. Brazil will play their own game regardlessly).

[NorwegianDude]

Interesting video, Justin, looking forward to the book.

[Scorpion]

[Scorpion]

You can tell you're American by the way you say UEFA.

But good video.

[Justin7]

I have to chew on what you just said in the video. Is it true that an early goal changes the style of play? Or should that concept be combined with the idea that there are high scoring and low scoring teams? And what about the difference between the knockout stages and the group phase?

Team-specific example for knockout stage: Italy takes early 1-0 lead, in 25th minute. Does that increase the changes of an over, or are they perfectly capable of closing things up and take the 1-0 to the finish line? This would be a very different scenario than when a high scoring team like Holland falls behind 0-1 early.

(There may be teams, like Germany, that change their style of play more than others when they fall behind early. For other teams it won't make much difference. Brazil will play their own game regardlessly).

As long as teams have some incentive to tie, and some more incentive to win, scoring pace goes up after that first goal, no matter when. What I didn't focus on as much is that scoring stays slow, even in second half, if it is 0-0.

The study wasn't team-specific.

[pavyracer]

I think what you also need to be looking is the way the match is officiated in the beginning. If the ref starts giving yellow cards without warnings there will be more opportunities for scoring later. High card games are usually high scoring.

[Justin7]

I think what you also need to be looking is the way the match is officiated in the beginning. If the ref starts giving yellow cards without warnings there will more opportunities for scoring later. High card games are usually high scoring.

Interesting.

I also read in a study that when a team has a player sent off, they still score at the same rate, but the other team's scoring rate doubles.

Can you confirm or discuss that?

[pavyracer]

If a game is tied and a team goes down a man it will be harder for goals to be scored since they will most likely pull out a forward to replace the defender/midfielder who got send off. If a team is down 1-0 and they go a man down it will be easier for goals to be scored. If a team is leading 1-0 and they go down a man it will be harder for goals to be scored. So being a man down only helps scoring if the team being a man down is losing.

[Karayilan9]

I think what you also need to be looking is the way the match is officiated in the beginning. If the ref starts giving yellow cards without warnings there will be more opportunities for scoring later. High card games are usually high scoring.

A classic tactic used by teams that want to disrupt a team playing a fast, fluid system is to use the cynical foul. These are pushes, shoulder barges, jumping onto players in aerial balls, minor midfield fouls which on their own don't warrant a card. The better refs and refs who are more strict don't allow these teams to try get away with this and give a few yellow cards early. Once a team realizes they can't get away playing dirty it allows for the game to be played at a faster pace and makes the game more open and increases the chances of a goal.

Understanding the teams, their tactics and formations also helps, some teams have players that can't put in the same work rate all game making them more likely to concede in the last 20 minutes. Some teams are able to change their tactic and shift formations during games going from a more defensive to attacking style. You can see this happen when watching a game live but need to understand tactics and systems to know when it happens. The commentator or news won't tell you, even top pundits in your average sports columns don't talk much about tactics and systems in detail. The sports news is dumbed down for the masses.

[tbill11]

Great info Kara for world cup coming up. What are some squads that you think will tire out in later games and late in matches?

[Jaug]

Very interesting you bring up some good points.

Will the book be availiable to us at SBR a little earlier?

[JOHON8]

1. "You find value in the over when a goal is scored in the first few minutes."
2. "You find value in the under when a goal is not scored in the first 60 minutes / long into the game."

Everyone who watches soccer regularly already knows this, but how do you find value when the books automatically change the odds in line with these situations? Ex. a goal is scored in the first few minutes, the over price becomes higher, so where's the value? Don't the bookmakers automatically adjust to a live situation taking away the value?

I personally see a lot of value in betting live in soccer for other reasons, mainly just experience of knowing what will happen in a match when I'm actually watching the pace and mood of the game, etc... For me it's experience, but usually when a goal is scored or not scored for a long time I have to act quick before it changes for the books to steepen their price. I hope you understand what I mean.

Good video, thanks.

[vitalyo]

1. "You find value in the over when a goal is scored in the first few minutes."
2. "You find value in the under when a goal is not scored in the first 60 minutes / long into the game."

Everyone who watches soccer regularly already knows this, but how do you find value when the books automatically change the odds in line with these situations? Ex. a goal is scored in the first few minutes, the over price becomes higher, so where's the value? Don't the bookmakers automatically adjust to a live situation taking away the value?

I personally see a lot of value in betting live in soccer for other reasons, mainly just experience of knowing what will happen in a match when I'm actually watching the pace and mood of the game, etc... For me it's experience, but usually when a goal is scored or not scored for a long time I have to act quick before it changes for the books to steepen their price. I hope you understand what I mean.

Good video, thanks.

Great post JOHON8 . 100% agree with you .
Justin7 Do you realize that some of the players (less knowledgeable) ,will just go ahead and fallow you blindly. I say your strategy has ZERO value . I have a lot of respect for you .
I can make a case on value .Pick over 2.5 wait 10 min ,if there is No Goal bet over .Price on over 2.5 will go up . So there is your so called value . Sorry no video . Unfortunately strategy like the one above will not work .
Just like JOHON8 said .Experience and knowledge your best friends in live betting ! And been quick to recognize the value .

GL.

[Hybris]

Watch out for italy though, they kinda tend to sit on a lead

Like the video justin, cant wait for your book.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Make sure to release the book in e-book format

[Squirrel]

1. "You find value in the over when a goal is scored in the first few minutes."
2. "You find value in the under when a goal is not scored in the first 60 minutes / long into the game."

With regards to those points I absolutely agree with you that there is zero value in following those strategies, the books are just too quick and smart with their adjustments and they know exactly how the public is going to react to a certain situation, even on Betfair they dont carry much value because those markets are manipulated by greed from the general "free money hunting" public.

IMO and this isnt something shared by many, but its something I did have a bit of success in the past - I believe you find absolute value when you REVERSE both of these theories, especially for those who are able to use Betfair in-play. If you pick your matchups correctly and a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes, then instantly all the value comes in backing the unders ... so many times a goal is scored early and then thats it, but everyone on betfair would hit the overs instantly looking for "free" money and easy winners. Its all about picking the right matchups to find ultimate value.

With regards to backing overs after 60 minutes thats a bit more difficult and something I was never really able to get to grips with, but if the score is 1-0 after an hour then there is still a damn good percentage of games that go to the overs, especially if someone gets sent off or a team needs to win the game for whatever reason.

Most of this only really applies to betfair since alot of their in-play markets are manipulated by sheer greed, so if you are sharp enough and brave enough to go "against the grain", thats when you get superb value on in-play football markets.

Just my 2pennies worth

[Indecent]

You can tell you're American by the way you say UEFA.

But good video.

<---- American

Yoo-Way-Fa

And agreed, good video.