A speculative punt on Málaga today vs Real Madrid

[thabeest]

Malaga to win +900 1 unit

Let me first of all say that I can not take credit for the knowledge of what I'm about to tell you and my reasoning behind betting on Málaga today when they host Real Madrid.

I am an avid La Liga bettor myself and have hit some nice bets in certain spots of my own throughout this long season of Spain La Liga or Primera División if you like. The tip I am getting from another norwegian guy whose knowledge of this league exceeds by far my own knowledge of the league, but I do agree with him, though.

Málaga are in dire need of points for them to survive from relegation today. The task looks impossible as they host a Real Madrid team also in need of three points for them to go past Barcelona and win the league.

However, Barcelona hosts today a Valladolid team who, even though are in desperate need of points to survive themselves, have in reality no real possibility of actually getting those points vs a Barcelona team looking to win the league again this year.

We have seen motivation beat class and superior teams many times before when the league closes in to end the season, and I know it's difficult to even think Malaga can beat Real Madrid - but all I am asking is have an open mind and try to not to think of Real Madrid as the team that has beaten teams with big scores all season, and try to envision how tough of a blow it will be to them knowing Barcelona will win over Valladolid today and that their (Real Madrid) season is in fact over now. They have been a disappointment in the champions league and now they will end as 2nd best in the league once again. Their motivation is surely not top notch visiting Malaga today.

Also, and here comes the punchline, the conspiracy theory, the possible, not necessarily "fixed" game, but perhaps a helping hand to Malaga from Real Madrid.

And once again, don't give me credit for this knowledge as I am loaning or stealing it from another guy who shared it - without him I would not think of this myself. Alright.

Malaga president Fernando Sanz is born and raised in Madrid and was a part of the team who won the champions league in 1997. Fernando is also son of Lorenzo Sanz who was Real Madrid president from 1985-1995, and part of the management the following 5 years. The bond between the teams are still strong, and neither of the other teams faced with relegation have any interests for Real Madrid. Facing the 2nd place in the league anyway if Barcelona are to be up in the lead by 2-3 goals at HT vs Valladolid, surely the motivation of this Real Madrid team will get torn in the HT break knowing they have nothing else to play for out there on the pitch, not even to please their own fans considering they are on a visit at Malaga.

Malaga will have everything to play for from start to finish, and they will never give up on the three points. Also we've seen this season what a disaster the defensive play on Real Madrid can be. Several times, even at home, they have been down 0-1 before they wake up and take control of the games and winning them.

I know it's difficult to think Malaga can win today, hell, it's really difficult even in my own wildest imagination to see it happening. The price, though, is pretty good. I can get +900 on Betsson at this time. I'm sorry for not telling you guys about this yesterday or even two days ago when the price was +1000 and +1050 at some places.

Pinnacle open the AH line on Real Madrid at -1.5,-2.0 and that line is now at -1.0,-1.5. The moneyline has gone from +1029 and down to +764.

Here is a history of line movement on the Asian Handicap and Moneyline from Pinnacle, provided by SBRODDS.com:

MONEYLINES
05/11 11:36 +1029 / -404 / +614
05/11 13:56 +997 / -386 / +592
05/11 18:16 +998 / -384 / +588
05/11 20:38 +1017 / -394 / +600
05/12 04:56 +1018 / -392 / +596
05/13 07:54 +1009 / -390 / +597
05/13 10:31 +980 / -385 / +595
05/14 17:24 +960 / -380 / +587
05/14 17:35 +953 / -379 / +587
05/14 17:36 +935 / -374 / +583
05/14 20:22 +920 / -371 / +584
05/14 20:24 +867 / -348 / +568
05/15 10:59 +868 / -346 / +564
05/15 12:59 +825 / -319 / +543
05/15 17:55 +826 / -318 / +540
05/16 02:21 +833 / -321 / +545
05/16 02:21 +833 / -321 / +540
05/16 04:28 +834 / -319 / +519
05/16 05:22 +810 / -309 / +510
05/16 05:33 +790 / -303 / +505
05/16 05:34 +750 / -303 / +505
05/16 05:34 +750 / -295 / +500
05/16 05:38 +700 / -295 / +480
05/16 05:39 +650 / -280 / +460
05/16 05:40 +713 / -274 / +473
05/16 05:45 +753 / -286 / +482
05/16 05:49 +764 / -289 / +485

ASIAN HANDICAPPING
05/10 02:52 1¾ -104 / -1-¾ -104
05/10 08:09 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/10 08:41 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/10 08:42 1¾ -117 / -1-¾ +108
05/10 10:38 1¾ -112 / -1-¾ +104
05/10 10:39 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/10 10:40 1¾ -118 / -1-¾ +109
05/10 11:49 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/10 12:16 1¾ -119 / -1-¾ +110
05/10 14:39 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/10 14:52 1¾ -119 / -1-¾ +110
05/10 15:25 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/11 03:52 1¾ -106 / -1-¾ -102
05/11 03:53 1¾ -104 / -1-¾ -104
05/11 03:59 1¾ -109 / -1-¾ +101
05/11 04:00 1¾ -107 / -1-¾ -101
05/11 07:57 1¾ -115 / -1-¾ +106
05/11 08:02 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/11 08:04 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/11 08:06 1¾ -112 / -1-¾ +104
05/11 08:10 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/11 13:54 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/11 17:50 1¾ -118 / -1-¾ +109
05/12 15:15 1¾ -110 / -1-¾ +102
05/12 15:20 1¾ -103 / -1-¾ -105
05/12 15:24 1¾ -102 / -1-¾ -106
05/12 15:30 1¾ -105 / -1-¾ -103
05/12 15:33 1¾ -104 / -1-¾ -104
05/12 16:53 1¾ -111 / -1-¾ +103
05/12 16:56 1¾ -109 / -1-¾ +101
05/13 10:29 1¾ -115 / -1-¾ +106
05/13 13:42 1¾ -114 / -1-¾ +105
05/13 21:33 1¾ -112 / -1-¾ +104
05/14 09:45 1¾ -118 / -1-¾ +109
05/14 11:51 1¾ -122 / -1-¾ +113
05/14 13:25 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/14 13:27 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/14 17:24 1¾ -122 / -1-¾ +113
05/14 20:22 1¾ -125 / -1-¾ +115
05/15 12:57 1¾ -127 / -1-¾ +120
05/15 12:58 1½ -102 / -1½ -106
05/15 12:58 1½ -102 / -1½ -105
05/15 12:58 1½ -102 / -1½ -106
05/15 13:28 1½ -101 / -1½ -105
05/15 14:24 1½ +100 / -1½ -106
05/15 15:24 1½ -102 / -1½ -104
05/15 15:25 1½ -106 / -1½ -102
05/15 15:43 1½ -105 / -1½ -101
05/15 16:07 1½ -104 / -1½ -104
05/15 20:46 1½ -103 / -1½ -105
05/16 02:28 1½ -102 / -1½ -106
05/16 04:16 1½ -104 / -1½ -104
05/16 05:20 1½ -106 / -1½ -102
05/16 05:21 1½ -116 / -1½ +107
05/16 05:31 1½ -118 / -1½ +109
05/16 05:32 1½ -120 / -1½ +111
05/16 05:33 1½ -126 / -1½ +116
05/16 05:34 1¼ +104 / -1-¼ -113
05/16 05:36 1¼ +105 / -1-¼ -114
05/16 05:38 1¼ +106 / -1-¼ -115
05/16 05:43 1¼ +107 / -1-¼ -116
05/16 05:44 1¼ +109 / -1-¼ -118
05/16 05:47 1¼ +110 / -1-¼ -119
05/16 05:48 1¼ +112 / -1-¼ -121
05/16 05:51 1¼ +113 / -1-¼ -122

[Tommy_de1st]

GL but no way Malaga can take even 1 point out of this match

[VLR100]

Looks interesting, I'll probably bet on Malaga at half time if Barca are winning by a few goals. I doubt that Real would play to lose from the beginning, as they do still have a chance, however slim, but I'll take a look again at half time.
Cheers for the info

[thabeest]

That's not a bad idea, VLR100. Good luck with that. I will probably be on the lookout for some live betting action on this game as well. Perhaps be betting Malaga to score next goal or a 2nd half bet on them. We'll see how it works out. Good luck.

Tommy: Anything can happen in soccer. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Real would to thrash Malaga today as they are a far more superior team - there is no denying that. But almost weekly we are witnessing major upsets in soccer all over the world in different leagues. Heck, there's an upset almost every week in every league there is. You just have to have the balls and keep an open mind to collect hitting those high priced teams.

1 unit, if I lose I lose. Fine by me. If I win I win 9 units.

[Tommy_de1st]

I can see reasoning in your thinking but what im saying is that upsets can occur in every game during the season but not in the last one that theorically can give Real a title when Barca lose (which they obviously won't).
Malaga have a chance only if Barca score couple of goals quickly causing Real quit. Malaga still trying to avoid relegation. That's the only scenario I see.
Gl - 1 unit is not that much to lose

[LinWin]

I think this analysis is a bit far out. Real Madrid will play to win, even if the chance of getting the
number one spot is slim.

[thabeest]

There is no denying that Malaga have gotten a lot of action. When the AH line changes 2 points, that is from +1.5,2.0 to +1.5 and then to +1.0,1.5. I mean, that is some serious action. If Real win this game it won't be by more than 2 goals and if you are still willing to buy the line up to a juiced level +1.5, then I suggest you go with that more safer way of betting on this game. I was a little too late, I could of have gotten the +1.5 at plus money, but since I didn't then I'm just gonna go for the potential upset. I refuse to back Malaga and laying juice doing so as Real is a much better team and if they want, they can destroy the home team in this game.

[VLR100]

Going on this logic, it's 0-0 at Siena, I feel Roma will push on, so Roma to win the second half looks a good bet 1.83, good luck.

[egzacto]

I'll throw a 1/2 unit on it wasn't planning on betting that match but what the heck

[SRBI]

I think it goes over 3.5. RM aren't worth backing in this situation, and who would really wants their money on Malaga?

[ararat2010]

It's worthy to bet a small one on Malaga ML

[SRBI]

Your best bet is to take the HT draw at +191 or Malaga +0.5/+1 -114 for the 1H because RM is a 2H team and I don't see them getting any less than 3 points out of this match. But who knows, I may be wrong, things seem to be a bit off today.

[DarkNite]

Don't worry! I bet on Malaga to win this game.

[thabeest]

Real Madrid have naturally gotten some action today and the AH line have moved up to -1.5

I will add 1 unit on Malaga +1.5 at -112.

[SRBI]

Your best bet is to take the HT draw at +191 or Malaga +0.5/+1 -114 for the 1H because RM is a 2H team and I don't see them getting any less than 3 points out of this match. But who knows, I may be wrong, things seem to be a bit off today.

Malaga leads 1-0 in the 1H

[tcarn01]

do you think RM will come back and win this? have them in 3 huge parlays...wtf

[Euphoria38]

nice man great punt so far. Go Malaga.

[thabeest]

Malaga up 1-0 at HT and Barcelona is up 2-0 at HT

My security bet on Malaga +1.5 looking very good, I dont think I will lose a unit on this match, but I would certainly hope for Malaga to pull the upset for a sweet 10 units of profit on this game

Tcarn01: They may come back and win, but never with more than 1 goal I reckon. It's hard to say, but Barcelona is up 2-0 at HT and will never lose the game over Valladolid, so Real Madrid knows they are not winning La Liga this year. No motivation for them. Malaga will keep on fighting to get the win. Read my preview, Real might save Malaga from relegation today.

[tcarn01]

nice call.. should have read before i placed bet... .BOL to you...

[SRBI]

By the looks of the 2H lines, RM is finished, good for your Malaga bet beest

But I would still have a jab at 2H RM +200 or PK +119 for a half unit, like I said before, RM is a 2H team.

EDIT: Wow...just like that, its a tie game. Told you RM was a 2H team

[thabeest]

1-1, Van der Vaart

[thabeest]

Malaga to win +900 1 unit
1 unit on Malaga +1.5 at -112.

I think it was worth a shot even though it didn't cash. Clearly value in the +900 price. In hindsight I should of probably have bet the +1.5 with a lot of units.

[vgvarad]

it was a good choice on Malaga anyway to trade later on