SuperDrew's Over/Under Picks

[phenomenon]

you may right bro,
it is illness to me bet under,I don t like it, teams come pitch for goal,and for now, san lorenzo want win too much, it makes me complicated, if san lorenzo scored a goal, :S
it sure goes over,
for this bet, I only believe in San lorenzo defence ...

[singgooner]

Mate, really hoping your class shines through.

But, the j-league, russian, swedish leagues are summer leagues and I think maybe - we all need these summer leagues to have a certain period of matchdays played before steaming in - so that consistent form appears.

Only my thought - not a theory !

[SuperDrew]

Hi, Sing. You're spot on with the requirement for a build up of data. I have found in the past that after 10 games the results tend to improve. As I base my picks on positive EV's, early in season there is a tendency for the system to churn out tips on ridiculous short-priced unders which has been caused by the slow goalscoring start in Russia, Sweden & Japan. As you will have seen, in the past 7 days, this has swung back dramatically with overs finally getting their fair share. As the data builds up, the effect of one or two obscure results get diluted and the detector should improve.

We're about in the zone now where reliability should improve. MLS is nearly ripe as well. Let's see how this week goes. No bets tomorrow.

Oh, did I mention the 100% strike rate today? (OK so it was only one and at a poxy price but any excuse for a !!!)

[SuperDrew]

One cheeky tip for Thursday 13th May:

IFK Goteborg vs Orebro - Swedish Allsvenskan - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.3

[SuperDrew]

Here we go again:

Samara Kryliya Sovetov vs Rostov-Na-Donu - Russian Premier League - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.46
Terek Grozny vs Saturn Moscow - Russian Premier League - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.64

[SuperDrew]

One in from Russian, one to play. Here's an additional play from Argentina tonight:

Banfield vs Boca Juniors - Argentinian Clausura - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.96

[Marginalis]

[SuperDrew]

The form is returning, this weekend could be a good one:

Brommapojkarna vs Hacken - Swedish Allsvenskan - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73
Halmstad vs Djurgarden - Swedish Allsvenskan - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.34
Dinamo Moscow vs Alania Vladikavkaz - Russian Premier League - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.76
Tom Tomsk vs Spartik Nalchik - Russian Premier League - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.69
Sendai vs Urawa - Japanese J-League - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1

[SuperDrew]

Final bet for the day will be in Argentina:

Independinte vs Lanus - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.74

[SuperDrew]

Mixed bagged on Saturday, no Swedish bets on Sunday you'll be glad to know!!!

Iwata vs Kawasaki - Japanese J-League - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65
Nagoya vs Kashima - Japanese J-League - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.14
Omiya vs Hiroshima - Japanese J-League - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.28
Racing Santander vs Sporting Gijon - Spanish La Liga - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.3

[singgooner]

Hi all - been away for a bit.

The old woman keeps going on about - I spend more time on the computer than her - well, if you keep on nagging woman - what do you expect !!!

Anyhow, been crunching the figures Super Drew

TOTAL 99 tips won 49 loss 50 minor loss -7.61

But when you drill down on leagues - there's some interesting things

Argentina Clausura
tips 15 won 11 loss 4
level stake 15 won 20.44 profit 5.44
(which seems to be that the league has now matured)

Bundesliga from 17th apr now closed
tips 9 won 5 loss 4
level stake 9 won 10.73 profit 1.73

J-League
tips 14 won 5 loss 9
level stake 14 won 10.29 minor loss -3.71

La Liga
tips 14 won 8 loss 6
level stake 14 won 16.24 profit 2.24

Premership
tips 13 won 5 loss 8

Russian Prem
Tips 16 won 10 loss 6
NB - last 5 tips have all won - seems to suggest this current summer league - team form has now bedded down !

Swedish Prem
Tips 17 won 5 loss 12
- I think we need to give Swedish Prem more matchdays before team form gets sorted out

OK - I know I am a sad f**ker !

But if you saw the wife ! LOL !

[SuperDrew]

Hi all - been away for a bit. The old woman keeps going on about - I spend more time on the computer than her - well, if you keep on nagging woman - what do you expect !!! Anyhow, been crunching the figures Super Drew TOTAL 99 tips won 49 loss 50 minor loss -7.61 But when you drill down on leagues - there's some interesting things Argentina Clausura tips 15 won 11 loss 4 level stake 15 won 20.44 profit 5.44 (which seems to be that the league has now matured) Bundesliga from 17th apr now closed tips 9 won 5 loss 4 level stake 9 won 10.73 profit 1.73 J-League tips 14 won 5 loss 9 level stake 14 won 10.29 minor loss -3.71 La Liga tips 14 won 8 loss 6 level stake 14 won 16.24 profit 2.24 Premership tips 13 won 5 loss 8 Russian Prem Tips 16 won 10 loss 6 NB - last 5 tips have all won - seems to suggest this current summer league - team form has now bedded down ! Swedish Prem Tips 17 won 5 loss 12 - I think we need to give Swedish Prem more matchdays before team form gets sorted out OK - I know I am a sad f**ker ! But if you saw the wife ! LOL !

Top man, Sing. Quality analysis. I'm sure we can turn this minor deficit round and get us back into the black.

I'll still be around over the next couple of months although the volume of selections may dwindle as many leagues have now closed/suspended until the world cup is over. The Brazilian Campeonato is up and running and the stats are being compiled, no picks until it's settled down though.

Have some points, Sing. Put them towards a nice SBR camisole and thong set for Mrs Gooner.

[SuperDrew]

Hi Guys,

Football's gone a bit quiet ahead of the World Cup but tomorrow we have some action and we have got some selections from it:

Aaelesunds vs Stromsgodset - Norwegian Tippeligaen - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.68
Haugesund vs Sanderjford - Norwegian Tippeligaen - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95
Viking vs Rosenborg - Norwegian Tippeligaen - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.93

[singgooner]

That's cruel - a good win and 2 hitting the crossbar by 1 goal !

[SuperDrew]

Tell me about it! Enough to make you scream. One 2-0 at half time and couldn't crack the case and the other got done over by a 96th minute penalty. The goal was so late it came through after the fulltime score of 1-1 on Futbol24. Thought I was in and then the goal buzzer went off. Gits!!!

[SuperDrew]

Should have a few bets over the next couple of days, guys. Then I think that will be it until after this world cup thing. Anybody heard of it? only kiddin'...COME ON ENGLAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[singgooner]

Yes, I think with all these dodgy weak friendlies and the World Cup being played - I wouldn't really get back into full stream until August - as a lot of summer league teams in July - would probably not come back to full strength for a couple of weeks - as any teams with World Cup players - will probably rest them for a couple of weeks.

So a restart in August or start of the big European leagues with the Bundesliga & prem maybe a good jump off point again.

[SuperDrew]

Two American bets for you tomorrow, guys:

Toronto FC vs Kansas City Wizards - American MLS - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.14
Colorado vs Columbus - American MLS - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.16