SuperDrew's Over/Under Picks

[SuperDrew]

Hi All,

For those of you following, we now enter day two of the experiment to see if the value detector I have built for over/under 2.5 goals turns a profit over a sustained period.

My stats to date read 12:7 from 19 selections at an average price of 2.01 giving an expected value per bet of +0.377 units.

Here's today's games:

Wigan vs Arsenal - English Premiership - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.18
Frankfurt vs Hertha Berlin - German Bundesliga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.862
Deportivo vs Almeria - Spanish La Liga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.13
Real Madrid vs Valencia - Spanish La Liga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.48
Xerex vs Racing Santander - Spanish La Liga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.08


So let's see how we go. Remember, as I said yesterday, this is still in the trial phase so if you fancy following these with cash, please keep any stakes to a minimum until an extended results sample has been collated and we know whether my stats are sufficient or we need to build in other factors.

Enjoy the show!

[LinWin]

Value detector

Good luck, though

[Tommy_de1st]

Drew, favour to ask
would be great if you could keep everything in one thread. It wouldnt be difficult to find system ideas if one forgot
Gl with your system

[SuperDrew]

It will be 1 thread going forward. Had to do it to get the stats out of the header as requested.

[svenodds]

BOL

[Czu81]

Your sample size is too big... GL

[Nyphra]

Had the frankfurt bet aswell, shipped it after 45 min .

[Smogs]

2-2 heading into Madrid match, good luck

[SuperDrew]

Madrid came up short. Livid. Strike rate down to 59.09%, with an expected EV per bet of +0.329 units.

Tonight's games:

Liverpool vs West Ham - English Premiership - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.901
Arsenal FC vs Argentinos Juniors - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.641
Colon vs Lanus - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.725

Wish me luck!

[Smogs]

Good luck!!

[singgooner]

Hi, keep it going - you are gradually hitting form !

[SuperDrew]

LOL. No need to be cheeky!!!

One more required tat Anfield then I'll be over to Argentina for a dull evening. I'll get my back ready for you give it a enthusiatic pat first thing in the morning, Sing!

[singgooner]

2 out of 3 - your form is improving - listen to Uncle Graham - you're getting into form !!!!

I am not being cheeky - I think over/unders is a great way to bet and when watching TV - you're supporting both teams to score 3 goals - or cursing the striker everytime he enters the penalty box if you're on UNDERS !

So, I think your trial period is a good idea.

Hope you bring it on this week !

[LinWin]

2 out of 3 - your form is improving - listen to Uncle Graham - you're getting into form !!!!

I am not being cheeky - I think over/unders is a great way to bet and when watching TV - you're supporting both teams to score 3 goals - or cursing the striker everytime he enters the penalty box if you're on UNDERS !

So, I think your trial period is a good idea.

Hope you bring it on this week !

I can't back the under when I'm watching a game, it's just too painful.
If the bet succeeds it usually means it's been a boring game. The
point of the game is goals, so why watch it if you don't want goals..
Just my 2 cents

[SuperDrew]

Thanks, Uncle Graham & Lin.

Backing unders in a televised games usually means you're in for a goalfest and get royally entertained. When it isn't you just spend 90 minutes staring at the clock wishing your life away. Best not to watch when you're on unders, do something else and forgot about it.

Let's see what tonight. I'm just off to switch my radar on.

[SuperDrew]

No plays tonight. I thought Notts County would come up as overs, but Rochdale don't quite match the criteria.

Cue avalanche of goals!

[singgooner]

Hi mate,

You have gone off the radar !

Are you stuck at some airport waiting for a plane home after the volcanic ash !

On your research and picks - keep the faith !

Any picks for the weekend ?

[SuperDrew]

I'm back! LOL Sing, I'm actually stuck at a dog show in a caravn with the missus. Trying to operate my laptop on a dongle with no 3G has taken me hours this morning to surf the odds!!! I think dealing with volcanic ash is a relative walk in the park!

However, perseverance has paid off and I have some beauties for you all:

Valencia vs Deportivo - Spanish La Liga - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.3
Lanus vs Arsenal FC - Argentinian Clausura - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.28
Newell's Old Boys vs Colon - Argentinian Clausura - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.28
Estudiantes vs River Plate - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.87

Nothing spat out from Premiership or Bundesliga. My others leagues, such as J-League, Russian Premier & MLS will be available in a few weeks once I've got a decent level of games played. Still early doors in their season.

[SuperDrew]

Hope you enjoyed the show, folks.

More coming later on.

[SuperDrew]

I can't promise 100% () again today, but I've done my best:

Aston Villa vs Birmingham - English Premiership - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.08
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg - German Bundesliga - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.54
Atletico Madrid vs Tenerife - Spanish La Liga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.76
Getafe vs Sevilla - Spanish La Liga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02
Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia - Argentinian Clausura - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.14
Racing Club vs Banfield - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65
Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65
Elfsborg vs Trelleborgs - Swedish Allsvenskan - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02

Go easy on these, as pride is often followed by a fall!!

[phenomenon]

Gl bro...

[SuperDrew]

Going well again. .

[singgooner]

As the Air Commander said to the Dambusters - TOP BOMBING !!!!!!!! 6 out of 8 on Sunday and 4 out 4 on Saturday. That's a 83.3% STRIKE RATE - I'll say it again - TOP BOMBING !!!!!!!!!!!

[SuperDrew]

Cheers, squadron leader. All together now, dur, durdur, durdurdurdurdur....

Plenty more where they came from.

[SuperDrew]

Only the one bet tonight and a skinny price at that:

Osasuna vs Athletico Bilbao - Spanish La Liga - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75

Kick off is at 8pm GMT.

[Tommy_de1st]

Drew
are you gonna do any summary of your picks at all?
Thanks
T

[SuperDrew]

I can do, fella. Will sort something tonight. Day-by-day strike rate and unit profitability ok for you?

[Tommy_de1st]

Yeah
Thanks

[singgooner]

As SuperDrew's No. 1 Fan - here's my record of his tips

4/17/2010PREMIERSHIPOVERFulham vs Wolves @ 2.46LOST4/17/2010BUNDESLIGAUNDERSchalke vs Borussia Moenchengladbach @ 2.16LOST4/17/2010BUNDESLIGAOVERStuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.704WON4/18/2010PREMIERSHIPUNDERWigan vs Arsenal @ 2.18LOST4/18/2010BUNDESLIGAOVERFrankfurt vs Hertha Berlin @ 1.862WON4/18/2010LA LIGAOVERDeportivo vs Almeria @ 2.13LOST4/18/2010LA LIGAOVERReal Madrid vs Valencia @ 1.48LOST4/18/2010LA LIGAOVERXerex vs Racing Santander @ 2.08WON4/19/2010PREMIERSHIPOVERLiverpool vs West Ham @ 1.901WON4/20/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAUNDERArsenal FC vs Argentinos Juniors @ 1.641LOST4/20/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAUNDERColon vs Lanus - Argentinian Clausura @ 1.725WON4/24/2010LA LIGAUNDERValencia vs Deportivo @ 2.3WON4/24/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAOVERLanus vs Arsenal FC @ 2.28WON4/24/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAOVERNewell's Old Boys vs Colon @ 2.28WON4/24/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAUNDEREstudiantes vs River Plate @ 1.87WON4/25/2010PREMIERSHIPOVERAston Villa vs Birmingham @ 2.08LOST4/25/2010SWEDISH ALLSVENSKANOVERElfsborg vs Trelleborgs @ 2.02WON4/25/2010BUNDESLIGAUNDERFreiburg vs Wolfsburg @ 2.54WON4/25/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAOVERArgentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia @ 2.14WON4/25/2010LA LIGAOVERAtletico Madrid vs Tenerife @ 1.76WON4/25/2010LA LIGAOVERGetafe vs Sevilla @ 2.02WON4/25/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAUNDERRacing Club vs Banfield @ 1.65WON4/25/2010ARGENTINA CLAUSURAUNDERAtletico Tucuman vs Rosario @ 1.65LOST4/26/2010LA LIGAUNDEROsasuna vs Athletico Bilbao @ 1.75WON

[singgooner]

bugger that came out wrong - didn't it !!!

[singgooner]

4/17/2010 PREMIERSHIP OVER Fulham vs Wolves @ 2.46 LOST
4/17/2010 BUNDESLIGA UNDER Schalke vs Borussia Moenchengladbach @ 2.16 LOST
4/17/2010 BUNDESLIGA OVER Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.704 WON
4/18/2010 PREMIERSHIP UNDER Wigan vs Arsenal @ 2.18 LOST
4/18/2010 BUNDESLIGA OVER Frankfurt vs Hertha Berlin @ 1.862 WON
4/18/2010 LA LIGA OVER Deportivo vs Almeria @ 2.13 LOST
4/18/2010 LA LIGA OVER Real Madrid vs Valencia @ 1.48 LOST
4/18/2010 LA LIGA OVER Xerex vs Racing Santander @ 2.08 WON
4/19/2010 PREMIERSHIP OVER Liverpool vs West Ham @ 1.901 WON
4/20/2010 CLAUSURA UNDER Arsenal FC vs Argentinos Juniors @ 1.641 LOST
4/20/2010 CLAUSURA UNDER Colon vs Lanus - Argentinian Clausura @ 1.725 WON
4/24/2010 LA LIGA UNDER Valencia vs Deportivo @ 2.3 WON
4/24/2010 CLAUSURA OVER Lanus vs Arsenal FC @ 2.28 WON
4/24/2010 CLAUSURA OVER Newell's Old Boys vs Colon @ 2.28 WON
4/24/2010 CLAUSURA UNDER Estudiantes vs River Plate @ 1.87 WON
4/25/2010 PREMIERSHIP OVER Aston Villa vs Birmingham @ 2.08 LOST
4/25/2010 ALLSVENSKAN OVER Elfsborg vs Trelleborgs @ 2.02 WON
4/25/2010 BUNDESLIGA UNDER Freiburg vs Wolfsburg @ 2.54 WON
4/25/2010 CLAUSURA OVER Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia @ 2.14 WON
4/25/2010 LA LIGA OVER Atletico Madrid vs Tenerife @ 1.76 WON
4/25/2010 LA LIGA OVER Getafe vs Sevilla @ 2.02 WON
4/25/2010 CLAUSURA UNDER Racing Club vs Banfield @ 1.65 WON
4/25/2010 CLAUSURA UNDER Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario @ 1.65 LOST
4/26/2010 LA LIGA UNDER Osasuna vs Athletico Bilbao @ 1.75 WON

[singgooner]

Level stakes - 24 bets won 16 strike rate 66.6% - stake 24 won 31.88 profit 7.88 roi 32.8%

[SuperDrew]

My humble efforts are finally receiving some attention. Thanks, Sing. Here's a nice little presentation of the same stats.

[singgooner]

Good to see my A-levels maths is still holding up and I have the same figures as you mate !!!

[SuperDrew]

Two more crackers for you for Wednesday 28th April:

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit St Petersburg - Russian Premier League - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65
Halmstad vs Gefle - Swedish Allsvenskan - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.18