Smogs, 'Up Until The World Cup' Thread

Smogs · 03-26-10, 10:18 AM

Plays for Saturday 27th March

Hull/Fulham - Hull -0.25 @ 21/20, 0.5 Units

Not the most obvious of picks but one that the line has been dropping in all week. Hull will not have a better chance to win a game all season i reckon, Fulham have this game sandwiched in between the recent loss at Spurs in the FA Cup and next week's crucial first leg against Wolfsburg.
Fulham's form has finally started to dip following the massive amount of games they have had to play and they have not won in the league for 3 games, losing their last 2. On the road Fulham have lost 4 of their last 6 drawing the other 2. Hull have lost their last 5 and i would say they are down if they lose this one. I would have preferred dnb but didn't like the 4/6 on offer for that, and i am looking for Iain Dowie to get the team playing well again, or at the very least scraping a win here to ease relegation worries.

Tottenham/Chelsea/Arsenal Treble @ 6/4, 0.6 Units

Can't see any of these losing and my main worry is Arsenal, but while you could argue they choke, they have shown no signs of that recently, winning their last 6.
If you saw my Sunderland pick at Villa, you know why i am betting Chelsea, and Spurs are being handed an easy 3 points. Even when Pompey were good they have still lost 5 of their 6 visits to WHL.

Bristol Rovers/Southend - Bristol Rovers @ 4/5, 0.6 Units

Southend have it all to play for, Bristol Rovers do not but what they do have is a very strong home record including 3 wins from their last 4 at home.
They have gained 13 points from their last 6 and face a Southend side that have lost their last 6 on the road. They lost 4-2 here last year when they were actually good and that win on Tuesday does not take away the fact that they are poor and missing their better players.

Huddersfield/Charlton - Huddersfield -0.25 @ 1.85, 0.4 Units

Inconsistency has dogged both of these teams and Charlton have very little chance of automatic while Huddersfield have now dropped out of the playoffs.
The home side have been on a poor run but did just win in London, and now have the chance to take advantage of Charlton's slip which saw them humped 4-0 at Millwall and held 2-2 at home to the league's worst away team.
Field have drawn too many at home but they can score at will, and will look at the teams around them, knowing they will all probably win given their opposition quality.

Bury/Aldershot - Aldershot +0.5 @ 4/5, 1 Unit

Bet of the day for the English leagues and it comes having seen Aldershot rise back to within a point of the playoffs while Bury have slipped drastically. No win in 6, 4 draws in that period and 1 goal scored, versus an Aldershot team that have won 4 of their last 6 and 3 of their last 5 on the road.
Bury seem to do this every season and i do see an away win, but i'll take the insurance.

Smogs · 03-26-10, 10:29 AM

One pick from Germany -

Leverkusen/Shalke - Shalke +0.25 @ 1.95, 0.8 Units

I may be taking a big risk here, not only because Leverkusen are still undefeated at home, but also because i saw Shalke lost in extra time to Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
Aside from that i think this is a good bet, Leverkusen are dipping off in form and Shalke have now taken their place as the main contenders to Munich who sit top.
Bayer have gained just 8 points from their last 6, while Shalke have managed 13. They also have the leagues second best away record with 23 points from 13. That includes just 1 away defeat in 6 and 2 in their last 10.
Naturally this game looks a draw to a leverkusen win, but mentality comes into this as a win for either will push them closer to the title.

Smogs · 03-27-10, 11:56 AM

ARSENAL!!!!!!

2-3 0 units, breaking even when it all looked so good at one point. Have to rely on Shalke to make me profit today

May have a bet on Mallorca/Barca

Smogs · 03-27-10, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

ARSENAL!!!!!!

2-3 0 units, breaking even when it all looked so good at one point. Have to rely on Shalke to make me profit today

May have a bet on Mallorca/Barca

Forget that! Bristol Rovers win in last kick of the game

3-2 + 1 Unit so far

theplagy · 03-27-10, 12:07 PM

Tough loss for Arsenal.

You can blame it all on Almunia, seriously...

Smogs · 03-27-10, 12:09 PM

It would have been a brilliant day - still a unit up going into Shalke though, so i'm optimistic

Arsenal will have lost so many people money today

Smogs · 03-27-10, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

One pick from Germany -

Leverkusen/Shalke - Shalke +0.25 @ 1.95, 0.8 Units

I may be taking a big risk here, not only because Leverkusen are still undefeated at home, but also because i saw Shalke lost in extra time to Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
Aside from that i think this is a good bet, Leverkusen are dipping off in form and Shalke have now taken their place as the main contenders to Munich who sit top.
Bayer have gained just 8 points from their last 6, while Shalke have managed 13. They also have the leagues second best away record with 23 points from 13. That includes just 1 away defeat in 6 and 2 in their last 10.
Naturally this game looks a draw to a leverkusen win, but mentality comes into this as a win for either will push them closer to the title.

4-2 day - +1.8 Units

Buzzing

Karayilan9 · 03-27-10, 06:15 PM

Congrats

TurkzZ · 03-27-10, 07:04 PM

nice call on Shalke

Smogs · 03-28-10, 05:10 AM

Cheers guys, got a couple for Sunday but not exactly liking the card.

Xerez/Valladolid - Draw 0.4 Units & Half Time Draw 0.5 Units & 0-0 Correct Score, 0.1 Unit & Under 2.5 Goals, 0.6 Units

Putting most of my weekend profit on this game so i hope i've read it right!
Firstly, Xerez are 7-7 over/under this season at home, while Valladolid are 4-9 in favour of the under.
As Xerez have picked up their own scoring, they have actually seen 5 of their last 6 home games go over, but Valladolid have had 6 straight unders on the road.
While Xerez have 9 goals in their last 6, they still just have 21 on the season. Valla have scored just 5 in their last 6.
Head to head, these two love the draw. The last 3 between these 2 teams at Xerez has finished as a draw - 2 of which were 0-0.
Xerez have 15 of their 28 games this season be a draw at half time while Valla have 11 from 28.

I think this will be a really tight game and it will take a long time for the dealock to be broken, if at all

Smogs · 03-28-10, 05:29 AM

Espanyol/Gijon - Half Time Draw @ 6/5, 0.5 Units

Osasuna/Almeria - Half Time Draw @ 11/10, 0.5 Units

Both of these games look very good to end the first half in stalemate. Espanyol have had HT draws in 4 of their last 6, Gijon 3 of their last 6. Osasuna have drawn 18 of 28 games at half time, while Almeria have drawn 5 of their last 6 at half time.

I would put more on but this is still a bit of a dodgy market so i'll just see what these can do.

Smogs · 03-28-10, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Cheers guys, got a couple for Sunday but not exactly liking the card.

Xerez/Valladolid - Draw 0.4 Units & Half Time Draw 0.5 Units & 0-0 Correct Score, 0.1 Unit & Under 2.5 Goals, 0.6 Units

Putting most of my weekend profit on this game so i hope i've read it right!
Firstly, Xerez are 7-7 over/under this season at home, while Valladolid are 4-9 in favour of the under.
As Xerez have picked up their own scoring, they have actually seen 5 of their last 6 home games go over, but Valladolid have had 6 straight unders on the road.
While Xerez have 9 goals in their last 6, they still just have 21 on the season. Valla have scored just 5 in their last 6.
Head to head, these two love the draw. The last 3 between these 2 teams at Xerez has finished as a draw - 2 of which were 0-0.
Xerez have 15 of their 28 games this season be a draw at half time while Valla have 11 from 28.

I think this will be a really tight game and it will take a long time for the dealock to be broken, if at all

Just going to write this game off, total misread of the whole situation.

Broke even on my other 2 ht draws so a losing day.

Onto the NBA to seek redemption

Smogs · 03-28-10, 01:09 PM

Don't read too much into these, just want to bet some leans, although not entirely confident about the over at Madrid, we'll see

Madrid derby - Over 3.5 @ Evens 0.5U

Real Madrid -1.5 @ 17/20 0.7U

Lille/Montpellier Over 2.5 @ Evens 0.5U

Montpellier +0.75 @ 21/20 0.3U

Smogs · 03-28-10, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Don't read too much into these, just want to bet some leans, although not entirely confident about the over at Madrid, we'll see

Madrid derby - Over 3.5 @ Evens 0.5U

Real Madrid -1.5 @ 17/20 0.7U

Lille/Montpellier Over 2.5 @ Evens 0.5U

Montpellier +0.75 @ 21/20 0.3U

Break even going into the NBA which is on my spreadsheet

Smogs · 03-29-10, 12:59 PM

I'm not getting sucked in by all the different stats on this Man City game - this will either be 0-0 or 4-0 and i can't take the stress lol.

Instead i've taken some prop bets

Man City/Wigan - Both teams score - NO 0.5U @ 5/6

1st Goal after 27 minutes 0.5U @ 10/11

Smogs · 03-29-10, 01:11 PM

I'm away till thursday so have to make my midweek bets today -

Arsenal/Barca - UNDER 2.5 @ 21/20, 1 Unit

Arsenal/Barca - Arsenal +0.25 @ 10/11, 1 Unit

Inter/CSKA - CSKA +1.25 @ 17/20, 0.7 Units

Arsenal are far too good in Europe to actually lose this game and i'm loving the under at + odds. I think this finishes 1-0 Arsenal. If Barca score first in the first half i'm f*cked.

How can the odds for the under at Inter be 8/11 and the spread -1.25. The only way both win is if Inter win 2-0. I think it will be closer than that and maybe even an away goal. I think this will be closer than most people think

Sforz · 03-29-10, 01:13 PM

smogs, hope you are right about arsenal. Have a good trip, see you on thursday.

Smogs · 03-29-10, 01:35 PM

Cheers sforz

I jumped on the City -1.5 train for 0.5 units. I'll probably regret it, i reckon city win this 1-0 at best

Wilforth · 03-29-10, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Cheers sforz

I jumped on the City -1.5 train for 0.5 units. I'll probably regret it, i reckon city win this 1-0 at best

Wigan's defense is horrible. I think City -1.5 should cash. More so that City have their offensive big guns in the lineup.

Smogs · 03-29-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

I'm not getting sucked in by all the different stats on this Man City game - this will either be 0-0 or 4-0 and i can't take the stress lol.

Instead i've taken some prop bets

Man City/Wigan - Both teams score - NO 0.5U @ 5/6

1st Goal after 27 minutes 0.5U @ 10/11

Originally posted by Smogs

Cheers sforz

I jumped on the City -1.5 train for 0.5 units. I'll probably regret it, i reckon city win this 1-0 at best

BOOM!!! 3-0 night

+1.4 Units

lauritz · 03-29-10, 06:15 PM

nice

Half way to the 10 unit mark now, keep it up!
A little bit worried about your 1 unit on under in Arsenal-Barca, but I think it will be a very cautious approach from the home side, try to keep a clean sheet... Let's hope Wenger learnt from the leassons United and Chelsea handed out.
But one have to wonder; how can one of the best attacking sides in the world NOT score on this Arsenal defense/keeper?

Smogs · 03-29-10, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by lauritz

nice

Half way to the 10 unit mark now, keep it up!
A little bit worried about your 1 unit on under in Arsenal-Barca, but I think it will be a very cautious approach from the home side, try to keep a clean sheet... Let's hope Wenger learnt from the lessons United and Chelsea handed out.
But one have to wonder; how can one of the best attacking sides in the world NOT score on this Arsenal defense/keeper?

Great point dude, i just think that Barca are a little cautious themselves on the road. They look un-inventive on the road in europe. Kiev (or was it Kazan) and Stuttgart come to mind in recent games.

It's a total contrarian play and may come back to bite me but i have researched it and think it offers the best price.

The first 20 minutes will determine the state of this game, problem is i'll be in a pub in Durham so won't be able to hit betfair and lay it if i get nervous

theplagy · 03-29-10, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Man City/Wigan - Both teams score - NO 0.5U @ 5/6

I suggest a better price for bets like this.

I had Wigan under .5 for -105 @ 5 dimes ( don't know if your book offer this or not)

of course you can argue that in case Man City got shut out (odds are like +800 for them not to score),

just FYI you know, and congratz to a nice day

Smogs · 03-29-10, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by theplagy

I suggest a better price for bets like this.

I had Wigan under .5 for -105 @ 5 dimes ( don't know if your book offer this or not)

of course you can argue that in case Man City got shut out (odds are like +800 for them not to score),

just FYI you know, and congratz to a nice day

Cheers plagey, i only really play bet365 and betfair. Not sure if they had that option but one to look out for, prop betting may be my strong point

Smogs · 03-30-10, 03:01 AM

Far too much love for Lyon who are not the team of old. I've never trusted them since they let Juninho go and i see no reason why Bordeaux cannot get at least a point

Lyon/Bordeaux - Bordeaux +0.25 @ Evens, 0.5 Units

1st Goal AFTER 29 Minutes @ 21/20, 0.25 Units

Smogs · 04-01-10, 02:03 PM

Will be back to update, just quickly betting a unit on Benfica DNB @ 4/6

Also 0.1 unit on Benfica 1-0 @ 13/2

Smogs · 04-01-10, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

I'm away till thursday so have to make my midweek bets today -

Arsenal/Barca - UNDER 2.5 @ 21/20, 1 Unit

Arsenal/Barca - Arsenal +0.25 @ 10/11, 1 Unit

Inter/CSKA - CSKA +1.25 @ 17/20, 0.7 Units

Arsenal are far too good in Europe to actually lose this game and i'm loving the under at + odds. I think this finishes 1-0 Arsenal. If Barca score first in the first half i'm f*cked.

How can the odds for the under at Inter be 8/11 and the spread -1.25. The only way both win is if Inter win 2-0. I think it will be closer than that and maybe even an away goal. I think this will be closer than most people think

Originally posted by Smogs

Far too much love for Lyon who are not the team of old. I've never trusted them since they let Juninho go and i see no reason why Bordeaux cannot get at least a point

Lyon/Bordeaux - Bordeaux +0.25 @ Evens, 0.5 Units

1st Goal AFTER 29 Minutes @ 21/20, 0.25 Units

Originally posted by Smogs

Will be back to update, just quickly betting a unit on Benfica DNB @ 4/6

Also 0.1 unit on Benfica 1-0 @ 13/2

3-4 week for a little loss. No way i was going to sneak away from that Arsenal game with my bankroll intact

Weekend picks coming up tomorrow probably. Shite record this ytd, need to improve

Karayilan9 · 04-01-10, 11:47 PM

What you think of West Brom at home? I hear the Toon army is invading the Posh, around 5,000 fans will be in the stands, Newcastle is looking tasty.

Smogs · 04-02-10, 05:51 AM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

What you think of West Brom at home? I hear the Toon army is invading the Posh, around 5,000 fans will be in the stands, Newcastle is looking tasty.

Newcastle is very tasty, even at those crazy odds. Should be a high scorer also

West Brom are flying right now, now they are on tv on the back of 6 home wins in a row, against a leicester side who have 4 goals in their last 6 away, and on the back of 3 straight defeats. Glad you mentioned them because at first the 4/7 odds scared me off a little but the scenario is on our side for a home win

West Brom -1 for 0.5U @ evens

Also going for Millwall to beat Brentford heavily and for the over to hit. Brentford have seen 22 goals in their last 6 matches, 11 scored and conceded, while Millwall have scored 17 and conceded 3. The over @ 11/10 is too good to pass on with 2 teams in good goalscoring form.

Millwall -1 for 1 Unit @ 4/5

Millwall/Brentford Over 2.5 for 1 Unit @ 11/10

Lastly, i'm sticking a risky pick in there, Grimsby. They may be 2nd bottom but they do not lose that many games, the amount of draws they've had is crazy and if Northampton were mid table i'd be all over Grimsby ML, but as it is, they get a smaller bet on the handicap. Everyone i talk to about Rochdale/Grimsby (my mate is a die hard rochdale fan) said that last week Grimsby played some excellent stuff. Therefore i have to follow them in a crucial game at both ends of the table

Grimsby +0.25 for 0.5U @ 19/20

Smogs · 04-02-10, 06:18 AM

Salzburg/Mattersburg Under 3.5 @ 10/11 for 0.5 Units

Not too sure about this given that i've only looked at stats for it but the over/under total of 3.5 is crazy.
Red Bull have just 13 overs from 27 games, when the total is 3.5 they have gone over just 8 from 27. Mattersburg are 12-15 favouring the under 3.5 and it's 5-9 in away games.
Red Bull haven't gone over 3.5 in 6 straight home games, while Mattersburg have only seen 2 of their last 6 go over 3.5.

Goat Milk · 04-02-10, 06:44 AM

nice picks, not to sure about Millwall minus 1 though. They need to get ahead early to take this win. The bees are on a role right now and wouldn't be surprised to see a draw here. Pressure in on Milwall here.

I think the over 2.5 is cash though

Smogs · 04-02-10, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

nice picks, not to sure about Millwall minus 1 though. They need to get ahead early to take this win. The bees are on a role right now and wouldn't be surprised to see a draw here. Pressure in on Milwall here.

I think the over 2.5 is cash though

Yeah good point, i did consider brentford and if they could get a point or not, the fact they are missing 2 defenders just edged it for me. I was thinking 3-1 would be the most likely outcome

Smogs · 04-02-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

West Brom -1 for 0.5U @ evens WIN

An early winner but millwall has all my money tied up and its been a slow start to that one

Smogs · 04-02-10, 03:05 PM

Layed the over bet at millwall off

1 Unit under 2.25 in play at millwall @ 10/11