Smogs Saturday Picks

Smogs · 03-05-10, 10:17 AM

Now for a venture into the Championship

Cardiff v Middlesbrough
Draw @ 12/5 - 0.25 Units

Looking at this from all angles the draw looks the best bet here. Despite Boro falling into a bad run of form on the road, that is perfectly matched by how poor Cardiff have become overall. They can look to injuries but i look to how bad Chopra has become in front of goal. Obviously a confidence man - he has none of that at the moment and has scored something like 2 goals in 20 games. It sickens me because at 16/1 league topscorer i am seeing my money dissolve on a bet that looked brilliant 10 games into the season. Cardiff have won just 2 of their last 6, while Boro have won 3, but just one of their last 6 on the road. 1-1 looks the bet for me

Newcastle v Barnsley
Newcastle-1.5 @ 5/4 - 0.4 Units

I cannot see Barnsley preventing Newcastle maintaining their healthy lead at the top of the table and despite the -1.5 handicap, Newcastle can easily have that beaten by half time. They are undefeated at home, while Barnsley do have a good away form they are not the team to go up to St James and win. Barnsley have lost 4 of their last 6 away including at Scunny and boro while Newcastle have won 4 of their last 6 at home. They also have 13 points from their last 6 having scored 15 and conceded 7. 37 home goals and just 8 conceded further add to the dominance of Newcastle at home

Nottm Forest v Swansea
Over+2.5 @ 83/52 - 0.3 Units (This bet is me being stubborn

)

I have been waiting and waiting for an opportunity where i think Swansea will finally cash an over. We have had to wait a hell of a long time since the last one, 5th of December at Peterbrough to be exact. However, i do think that this offers value. Let's take Forest first, they have 35 home goals and just 13 conceded from 17 games. With Swansea being very efficient in front of goal, with just 7 from their last 6, but having scored in 6 straight games since a 0-0 back in January i think they can score. Forest obviously will and if we see an early goal, both teams will still be confident to go for the win and push the total over

Peterborough v Coventry
Peterborough ML @ 6/4 - 0.5 Units

At first glance we have two teams going in opposite directions. Coventry are on a fine little run of form and go away to the Posh who have won just 2 of their last 6. However, look a little closer and you will see that Posh have won their last 2 home games, scoring 10 in that time, and have lost just 6 at home all season. Coventry might be on a good run but still only have 1 away win in their last 6 away. Coventry have had to mainly rely on their defence for the wins, with a couple of 1-0's and 2-1's. Posh need this win badly and while that is not a reason why they should win, it is the time of season when teams at the bottom do cause minor shocks in their quest for survival

Over+2.5 @ 54/49 - 0.5 Units

At + odds i have to take a stab at this. Peterbrough have seen 20 goals fly in their last 6 games and on the season there has been 54 goals scored in 16 games at Posh. Coventry are less prolific and have seen their defence really take shape also. However, on the road they are rather shaky, having conceded 27 goals in 17 away games. They still average a goal a game on the road but i think that while they may score, with Posh's weak defence, the likelihood is Coventry do not keep a clean sheet either. The odds make this a tasty looking bet and i'll have a go

QPR v West Brom
Over+2.5 @ 40/43 - 0.6 Units

I think that despite a new manager at QPR, we will not suddenly see a drought of goals. Especially as we see WBA come into town, a team that has seen 11 of their 17 away games go over the total. Qpr have seen 9 of their 15 home games go over also and i think we should expect at least 4 goals here as the 49 goals seen at Loftus road is added to, as well as the 49 goals seen in WBA's 17 away games. Both have goalscorers and luckily we know that QPR can't really defend all that well. WBA have scored 11 in their last 6 and QPR have conceded 8 in their last 6. But this does like a potential 2-2 scoreline

2.55 units on the table from here + 1.5 from Arsenal/Burnley = 4.05 units for the weekend so far

Good luck with all your picks

JOHON8 · 03-05-10, 10:53 AM

Everyone is big on Arsenal. After winning away to Stoke I think they have showed more character than any other EPL team in recent weeks, and are clearly in the race for the title. Burnley's game is very open and offensive which can also give way to a few goals for them as well, this endangers the -2 handicap, but gives more confidence for the over 2.5 / 3.

BOL Smogs.

JRLM8 · 03-05-10, 01:14 PM

"Arsenal expect to welcome back midfielders Andrey Arshavin (hamstring), Denilson (calf) and Abou Diaby (knee) for the Barclays Premier League clash against Burnley.However, veteran centre-back Sol Campbell is out because of a groin problem, while Cameroon midfielder Alex Song is suspended.
William Gallas (calf) is still sidelined, while Carlos Vela will be rested after international duty away with Mexico."

Nice to have Arshavin back. GL Smog.

patblue03 · 03-05-10, 01:38 PM

good luck

Gandev · 03-05-10, 02:42 PM

I'm going with a lot of goals on arsenal - burnley

Smogs · 03-05-10, 09:01 PM

Thanks for the support guys, hoping for a break out weekend to get back above the 50% average i have been carrying all year.

Wilforth · 03-05-10, 09:53 PM

BOL

datrugal · 03-05-10, 11:37 PM

best of luck man

theplagy · 03-06-10, 12:26 AM

Here's my Card Smogs,

Wolves +1.5 @ -117 1 unit Fear of relegation > Hunger for title in this case.
Arsenal -2 @ -138 3 unit, you've said it all.
Fulham +.25 @ -130 2 unit, 1 unit for Fulham Strength at home, nothing else to play for in league game and will be focus on the 2 cups, another unit for Tottenham's inconsistency that keep them from breaking up to the top 4.
Fulham ML @ +200 looks tasty too

Leaning Bolton +.75, but they haven't been able to score in the last 5 away games, that leaves one wonder. However, they've managed at least 1 goal @ west ham in the last 5 outings. both are desperate for points so leaning over 2.5 but gonna leave this fking game alone ~.~

What do you think?

lauritz · 03-06-10, 02:31 AM

Love the QPR v West Brom play!
QPR have kept 2 clean sheets all season, and the "new manager effect" they will probably score at least one... and they are hosting the best away team in the league(who happens to like to keep the 0's away from the scorecard!)

Also with you on Arsenal and Newcastle!

BOL today!

aceking · 03-06-10, 03:27 AM

Arsenal should win by 1 or 2 goals only.

Smogs · 03-06-10, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by theplagy

Here's my Card Smogs,

Wolves +1.5 @ -117 1 unit Fear of relegation > Hunger for title in this case.
Arsenal -2 @ -138 3 unit, you've said it all.
Fulham +.25 @ -130 2 unit, 1 unit for Fulham Strength at home, nothing else to play for in league game and will be focus on the 2 cups, another unit for Tottenham's inconsistency that keep them from breaking up to the top 4.
Fulham ML @ +200 looks tasty too

Leaning Bolton +.75, but they haven't been able to score in the last 5 away games, that leaves one wonder. However, they've managed at least 1 goal @ west ham in the last 5 outings. both are desperate for points so leaning over 2.5 but gonna leave this fking game alone ~.~

What do you think?

Leave Bolton well alone but love the rest of the card - i just cannot trust Bolton on the road, and west ham are picking up home form at the right time of the season.

Originally posted by lauritz

Love the QPR v West Brom play!
QPR have kept 2 clean sheets all season, and the "new manager effect" they will probably score at least one... and they are hosting the best away team in the league(who happens to like to keep the 0's away from the scorecard!)

Also with you on Arsenal and Newcastle!

BOL today!

My thoughts exactly regarding west brom match, loved the price i got as well

Originally posted by aceking

Arsenal should win by 1 or 2 goals only.

How? I have this down as a 6-0 thrashing, Arsenal are in a perfect position to destroy this crumbling poor team.

But i haven't won a bet when Burnley have been involved this season so who knows...

JOHON8 · 03-06-10, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by theplagy;3448231

[I

Wolves +1.5 @ -117 1 unit[/I] Fear of relegation > Hunger for title in this case.

I was thinking of backing a draw here too, until I saw the line ups. Rooney, Berbatov upfront. Valencia and Nani on the wings. Fletcher and Scholes in midfield. Not to mention Ferdinand and Vidic in the back.

Is this not the strongest away team Man Utd has fielded all season? I can see Wolves fighting well at home, but they did that against Chelsea and lost 2-0.

BOL though.

Smogs · 03-06-10, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

I was thinking of backing a draw here too, until I saw the line ups. Rooney, Berbatov upfront. Valencia and Nani on the wings. Fletcher and Scholes in midfield. Not to mention Ferdinand and Vidic in the back.

Is this not the strongest away team Man Utd has fielded all season? I can see Wolves fighting well at home, but they did that against Chelsea and lost 2-0.

BOL though.

I would never back against United with their team like that

theplagy · 03-06-10, 10:29 AM

0-2 Bolton,

0-0 Arsenal

theplagy · 03-06-10, 10:36 AM

arsenal 1-0

Smogs · 03-06-10, 10:38 AM

Sorry plagey about bolton

Smogs · 03-06-10, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

QPR v West Brom
Over+2.5 @ 40/43 - 0.6 Units WIN

I think that despite a new manager at QPR, we will not suddenly see a drought of goals. Especially as we see WBA come into town, a team that has seen 11 of their 17 away games go over the total. Qpr have seen 9 of their 15 home games go over also and i think we should expect at least 4 goals here as the 49 goals seen at Loftus road is added to, as well as the 49 goals seen in WBA's 17 away games. Both have goalscorers and luckily we know that QPR can't really defend all that well. WBA have scored 11 in their last 6 and QPR have conceded 8 in their last 6. But this does like a potential 2-2 scoreline

Good luck with all your picks

A win in the first half - shame it wasn't my biggest bet

theplagy · 03-06-10, 10:42 AM

I just placed a live bet, Bolton to win, 6.6 unit to win 2 unit

Smogs · 03-06-10, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by theplagy

I just placed a live bet, Bolton to win, 6.6 unit to win 2 unit

I'm rooting for ya big time, i want redemption lol

*Half time update and things are not too bad, Newcastle and Arsenal winning but need at least a goal more in each, WBA/QPR has won

and we at least have a goal at Peterborough - admittedly the wrong way

theplagy · 03-06-10, 11:14 AM

1-1 duh

Smogs · 03-06-10, 11:17 AM

Well, back to break even for the season

theplagy · 03-06-10, 11:58 AM

the most grateful push ever

Smogs · 03-06-10, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by theplagy

the most grateful push ever

Indeed, still feel bad though, think i had a loss today

theplagy · 03-06-10, 12:03 PM

I know, Berbatov, Rodallega, Carlton Cole, or Defoe would have had a hatrick today

Smogs · 03-06-10, 12:04 PM

Elmander would have scored 6 at least

theplagy · 03-06-10, 02:24 PM

Wolves +1.5 @ -117 1 unit ,

Arsenal -2 @ -138 3 unit,
Fulham +.25 @ -130 2 unit

2-0-1 +2 unit, i'll take it

Smogs · 03-06-10, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by theplagy

Wolves +1.5 @ -117 1 unit ,

Arsenal -2 @ -138 3 unit,
Fulham +.25 @ -130 2 unit

2-0-1 +2 unit, i'll take it

Happy days fella!