Man Utd/Aston Villa Over - i'm loving it

[Smogs]

Guys, feedback would be appreciated but i am loving the over thoughts on this Carling Cup final. The pitch will be in fine nick, the players are going to be up for this and i do not trust the United back line one bit these last couple weeks.
On top of that both teams can obviously score and with odds of +100 it looks value.

On the flip side the history of these two is of unders galore, but i just think this scenario lends itself to the over.

Just a lean so far but want to make this a unit pick

[theplagy]

I wanna see the lineups. Wanna know if Man U really give a shit for this cup. They have to play milan midweek and still in a tight race for the premier league. I like villa +.5 more as this can go to OT.

[JRLM8]

Soccernet Preview:

Ferguson is thinking about resting Rooney.

Rio is out with an injury.

Villa is starting Friedel in the net.

"United have never successfully defended a cup competition before but having overcome Tottenham on penalties last term, could put that statistic right by overcoming Martin O'Neill's men."

I kind of like Villa too.

[Smogs]

I might change my play to Villa +.5 if the lineups aren't favourable - i.e no rooney or something like that

[lakerboy]

man u isnt playing milan until march 10. i heard fergie is gonna rest rooney

[Sforz]

my lean is Villa, gl all

[JOHON8]

Looking at their last match up, Villa failed to score when United were down 1 man. I'm not a big fan of the over but it's a Cup Final anything can happen. Best way to make a decision is to wait for line ups, the next step could be finding value at half time based on what you see.

[Dark Horse]

Taking 1H Over 1 (+108). Only loses if 1H ends 0-0.

[TurkzZ]

will united even risk there 1st team for this?, mite go for a 2nd string and defend a lil more?

[JOHON8]

will united even risk there 1st team for this?, mite go for a 2nd string and defend a lil more?

Why wouldn't they field their 1st team for this? Can anyone provide me an answer?

They prepared all week for this, their EPL matches were postponed, their CL match is in 2 weeks + it's basically already won. Their next match is in 7 days vs Wolves, which is also a game they have time to prepare for and easily win.

[TurkzZ]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/league_cup/8540355.stm

Draw 90 mins, goes to pens

[Dark Horse]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/foot...up/8540355.stm

Draw 90 mins, goes to pens

From that article:

Having opted for fringe players in earlier rounds, the Scot brought in the big guns to help dispose of neighbours Manchester City in the semi-final.

I say Rooney plays the 1H, and Owen the 2H.

[TurkzZ]

i think he will keep Rooney on bench and play him if required

[Wilforth]

I might change my play to Villa +.5 if the lineups aren't favourable - i.e no rooney or something like that

I'm on the opposite side:
Rooney plays, Aston Villa +0.5
Rooney sits out, Man Utd win.

[RedDevil11]

Hey guys, Fergie will start a strong line up for this one. I realise it's the Mickey Mouse Cup, but they're already knocked out of the FA Cup and winning a trophy will give them some confidence going into their stretch run. I think Fergie goes with this lineup which he usually starts in these types of games 4-5-1...well, that's the rumblings here in Manchester. Would really like to see them go 4-4-2 with Rooney and Berbs up front but doubt that happens. I think Owen would get in front of Berba anyhow if that happens. Rafael should start as Neville has played two consecutive games and I think he'll go with Brown and Vidic in the middle as they looked pretty solid against West Ham so keeping this pairing together will improve their partnership.

VDS
Rafael, Brown, Vidic, Evra
Valencia, Fletcher, Carrick, Scholes, Park
Rooney

I can't see Fergie leaving Rooney on the bench this time around and he's made his voice heard that he wants to play. He was absolutely gutted last year when he was left on the bench at Wembley and Fergie knows that. It will be a strong squad regardless...we've got a week before we'll play the Wolves.

As for the scoreline....2-0 United.

btw, Fergie has already made it public here that he wants this one bad having lost it 3 times already by making bad lineup decisions. And if you look at the semi-finals agaisnt City, you would have remembered he went with his first squad including Rooney to start so I don't expect anything less nor do all other United supporters who will pay big bucks to see this at Wembley. It's the biggest stage in England so he won't be putting out a weak lineup..guaranteed.

[RedDevil11]

Looking at their last match up, Villa failed to score when United were down 1 man. I'm not a big fan of the over but it's a Cup Final anything can happen. Best way to make a decision is to wait for line ups, the next step could be finding value at half time based on what you see.

Not only did they not score, we dominated the rest of the match. We're out for revenge this match having lost to them at Old Trafford at the start of the season. That was like our first match when we had all of our defensive injuries and we had our midfielders playing at the back. We've practically played all season with Rio out, so I wouldn't make much of his absence. The good news is that Vidic will be back so with him partnered with Brown, should stabilise our back 4 which worked well in our clean sheet against West Ham.

Before that we have OWNED Villa.....never lost to them before the Premiership existed....last 25 games before this season's loss: 20W 5T. Not saying it will be easy at Wembley and Villa are a good squad, but I have full confidence we get them back.

[Slainte]

Great game to watch, but tough to gamble maybe high value bets like draw or smth like that.

[xGrr]

Man U should win if they bring in the main line up, after the 3-1 loss at everton and the points dropped at villa because of nani red card at 29min i think they are out for revenge and moral boost so i expect fergie to come with a strong squad and win this.

[fuglyboy86hi]

Over seems easier !!

[theplagy]

Draw @ +280 is tempting

[Gandev]

I'm playing over aswell

[hedgejob]

Man U have problems breaking down Villa. Last 2 games they scored just one against Villa.

Villa have best defense in PL with 21 conceeded. Man U have 2nd best defense with 24 conceeded. Under is the play IMO.

[Smogs]

Call me crazy, but with everything pointing towards the under, i think the venue, the atmosphere, Villa's determination to get goals - all points me towards the over.

1 Unit - Villa/Man Utd Over 2.5 Goals @ +100

Right, got to go out and play sunday league football in Aberdeen, should get back for the second half i reckon

[pitman]

I like the play , good luck.

[JOHON8]

The over could very well hit based on pure luck, but it's too risky. I'd rather put my money on an over in a smaller league game than this.

By the way, I just saw the lineups online, Rooney, Valencia, Agbonlahor, Carew etc... they are all starting. The over looks good on paper but this could turn out to be like 1-1 and into extra time.

[Dark Horse]

Rooney is not starting. Neither is Van Der Sar. Berbatov and Owen upfront.

[RedDevil11]

Yeah, I saw that....guess with England midweek it makes some sense. At least Fergie is going with a 4-4-2...staying away from this game.

[Dark Horse]

Nice to have the 1H over win in 12 minutes. lol

[doxinho]

Call me crazy, but with everything pointing towards the under, i think the venue, the atmosphere, Villa's determination to get goals - all points me towards the over. 1 Unit - Villa/Man Utd Over 2.5 Goals @ +100 Right, got to go out and play sunday league football in Aberdeen, should get back for the second half i reckon

Man U have problems breaking down Villa. Last 2 games they scored just one against Villa. Villa have best defense in PL with 21 conceeded. Man U have 2nd best defense with 24 conceeded. Under is the play IMO.

Interesting conceding views... 2 early goals kinda put it to rest although it could still end up 1-1.

I took the over once I realized Van der Sar wasn't in goal (and Rooney wasn't starting, as expected).

[patblue03]

good luck

[Smogs]

It's in the balance, just got in to see 1-1 at half time.

I have been screwed on these before though and just heard that Park hit the post, so i am still nervous

[theplagy]

Go smogs, had over 2.5 in a parlay as well

[theplagy]

Roooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon

[Smogs]

F*ck YEAHHHHH

So happy with this - had a winning weekend in the end

[doxinho]

CHEERS!!!!!!! Let's cash it in!