Aston Villa -1 Handicap

**GroundnPound** · 01-17-10, 02:44 PM

Looks like I was right.

**ClydeFontaine** · 01-17-10, 02:55 PM

Did not watch the game. Could be a valuable point for West Ham though. I hate to see the Premiership without them because of their history so would like for the Hammers to survive relegation.

**Wilforth** · 01-17-10, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

The Aston Villa game looks to me like the perfect example of a game to stay away from. It could end like the Tottenham/Hull game!

I told you!!!

**Smogs** · 01-17-10, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

I told you!!!

Trust me wil, as soon as i saw you say that, i was worried. Get back to posting, your insight is very useful

**Glitch** · 01-17-10, 11:22 PM

greenstreet hooligans

**Wilforth** · 01-17-10, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Trust me wil, as soon as i saw you say that, i was worried. Get back to posting, your insight is very useful

Thanks for the compliments.
I think this is the time we should start focusing on relegation battles. There are teams that are currently struggling at the bottom of their various leagues but will eventually escape relegation. Such teams will make us money this time of year. By that criteria, these Sunday wins were in order:

EPL: Blackburn
Germany: Hertha Berlin
Netherlands: NEC Nijmengen
Italy: Atalanta
Spain: Malaga

If one can study the nature of those wins and the situation of the teams they played against, we can harness that to start making some dough down the stretch.

jw · 01-18-10, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

I think this is the time we should start focusing on relegation battles.

Certainly is that time of the year when lower placed teams fighting for survival will put up good performances against mid-table opponents who have nothing left to play for ...

.. and each year it takes me by surprise and I get beat a couple of times until i realize that

**psulions** · 01-18-10, 12:55 AM

Classic Villa, playing down to the competition when they should win easily.

**Smogs** · 01-18-10, 05:06 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Thanks for the compliments.
I think this is the time we should start focusing on relegation battles. There are teams that are currently struggling at the bottom of their various leagues but will eventually escape relegation. Such teams will make us money this time of year. By that criteria, these Sunday wins were in order:

EPL: Blackburn
Germany: Hertha Berlin
Netherlands: NEC Nijmengen
Italy: Atalanta
Spain: Malaga

If one can study the nature of those wins and the situation of the teams they played against, we can harness that to start making some dough down the stretch.

That's what i mean, excellent stuff wil. I'll have a look into Blackburn and Hertha and see what i can draw from it

**sockeye** · 01-18-10, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Thanks for the compliments.
I think this is the time we should start focusing on relegation battles. There are teams that are currently struggling at the bottom of their various leagues but will eventually escape relegation. Such teams will make us money this time of year. By that criteria, these Sunday wins were in order:

EPL: Blackburn
Germany: Hertha Berlin
Netherlands: NEC Nijmengen
Italy: Atalanta
Spain: Malaga

If one can study the nature of those wins and the situation of the teams they played against, we can harness that to start making some dough down the stretch.

Wilforth you are awesome :
Blackburn win 2-0
Hertha berlin win 3-0
NEC win 2-1
Atalanta win 3-0
Malaga win 1-0

Salute Bro!

**Wilforth** · 01-18-10, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by sockeye

Wilforth you are awesome :
Blackburn win 2-0
Hertha berlin win 3-0
NEC win 2-1
Atalanta win 3-0
Malaga win 1-0

Salute Bro!

No no no! I didn't post those as leans or anything. I'm just using those as examples of how one can make money this time of year using relegation-threatened teams that are in a nice spot for a win. If you look back to those results, the listed teams all played against midtable teams. At this point in the season most midtable teams are just content with remaining in midtable. They know they can't reach the top neither can it get so bad that they drop to the bottom. So getting points now and then at home is enough to keep them where they belong. So when such unmotivated teams play against desperate bottom teams, all it takes the bottom team to win is to score the first goal. You'll see that a lot down the stretch.

In Italy, for instance, watch out for these next Sunday:

Bologna/Bari
Lazio/Chievo

BTW, Villareal/Zaragoza goes OVER next Sunday

**Smogs** · 01-18-10, 10:26 AM

In Germany we have Nuremburg/Frankfurt 11/10 on that. Looks undervalued but maybe the bookies want you on Frankfurt.

Wil - would you say frankfurt are just a little too high up the table for this to count or just right?

Also - what unit stake would you attach to the Villa/Zara over...i can get 5/6

**Wilforth** · 01-18-10, 11:28 AM

Nuremberg ML: That'll make for a very good pick. They're now scoreless in their L5 games, which is so far their longest scoreless streak of the season. They're at home against a midtable Frankfurt team that will neither break into the top 6 nor drop into relegation zone. BTW, Nuremberg are 3-1-1 against Frankfurt in the L5 meetings. All Nuremberg needs in that game is to score the first goal. By the law of averages, the have a vey high chance of scoring the first goal.

Villareal/Zaragoza OVER 2.5: It's a 5-unit play for me.
Villareal have scored exactly 1 goal in each of their L3. Villareal haven't been held to Under 2 goals in 4 straight games! Expect at least 2 goals from them against a porous Zaragoza defense. Zaragoza, on their part, are what EP would call a "goal magnet". Over is 7-2 in their L9 road games. The only times the UNDER cashed in their road games was at Malaga and Gijon, which are 2 of the least scoring teams in the league.

**Smogs** · 01-18-10, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Nuremberg ML: That'll make for a very good pick. They're now scoreless in their L5 games, which is so far their longest scoreless streak of the season. They're at home against a midtable Frankfurt team that will neither break into the top 6 nor drop into relegation zone. BTW, Nuremberg are 3-1-1 against Frankfurt in the L5 meetings. All Nuremberg needs in that game is to score the first goal. By the law of averages, the have a vey high chance of scoring the first goal.

Villareal/Zaragoza OVER 2.5: It's a 5-unit play for me.
Villareal have scored exactly 1 goal in each of their L3. Villareal haven't been held to Under 2 goals in 4 straight games! Expect at least 2 goals from them against a porous Zaragoza defense. Zaragoza, on their part, are what EP would call a "goal magnet". Over is 7-2 in their L9 road games. The only times the UNDER cashed in their road games was at Malaga and Gijon, which are 2 of the least scoring teams in the league.

Keep an eye out, i'll be trailing