Monday,monday,monday

jw · 12-07-09, 10:51 AM

Isreal: Hapoel Tel Aviv ( -1, -1.5 @ 1.806)
Cyprus: Aris @ 1.813
Italy: Novara @ 1.917
Portugal: Sporting Lisbon -1 @ 2.020
Scotland: Livingston @1.813

Just a few small plays for me today ... I'll be playing Sporting Lisbon a little stronger than the the others as I think it is better value .. the others i'm playing just for something to watch from my "play money" bank.

**mihaita666** · 12-07-09, 10:52 AM

steaua dnb, my best bet dor today.

**Smogs** · 12-07-09, 11:02 AM

i would say Watford/Qpr over 2.5

**mew6789** · 12-07-09, 11:23 AM

I think there's value in these teams on the AH:

Greuther Furth -0.25

Vicenza -0.25

and the over on the Nantes game.

**Karayilan9** · 12-07-09, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by jw

Isreal: Hapoel Tel Aviv ( -1, -1.5 @ 1.806)
Portugal: Sporting Lisbon -1 @ 2.020

Just a few small plays for me today ... I'll be playing Sporting Lisbon a little stronger than the the others as I think it is better value .. the others i'm playing just for something to watch from my "play money" bank.

JW, Sporting Lisbon -1, lets discuss this play more.

Sporting Lisbon are in bad form, they haven't won in 6 league games, in most the games I watched out of these they were thoroughly outplayed especially in games on the road but just because of their name they keep being given these inflated odds.

They have only one a game by more than one goals once this season. Now the team they are playing is last in the league, has conceded the most goals in the league (21) and scored the least (4). But if we break it down a level, at home this team has only conceded 5 which is one of the least in the league but only scored once. SL has only scored 6 and let in 5.

Both teams are in bad form, the home team will try that extra bit harder because they are playing one of the big names in the league, SL have had trouble breaking down defenses especially on the road.

SL -1 @ +100/2 is risky in my opinion.
Under2.5 looks good but the odds are crap.

jw · 12-07-09, 01:02 PM

I saw it slightly different .. in the last 6 home games .. the home team has scored just once .. (against another bottom of the table struggler) Agreed that Sporting have not been playing great .. but they have been able to put in at least one goal away from home in all but one of their last 6 games . (against better teams than this) I do see sporting scoring at least one in this game - possibly even two .... I don't see the home team scoring at all .. I figure sporting to win @ 1.6 is not value ... but I get odds of 2.0 which gives me the push if it ends 1-0 and a win if they manage to score two ....

I think the odds are worth the risk in this one - sporting are the better team ... this might be the opportunity they need to prove it to themselves - and anyone else who might be watching.

I've not had a huge bet - but its the only play for me today from my main bank

I do appreciate your input though and did consider this a riskier bet than normal for a lot of the reasons you stated .. but I could not see much else of value anywhere else today ... I think it ends 1-0 and I get a push ... but I can see it ending 2-0 and I get a return.

**Karayilan9** · 12-07-09, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by jw

I saw it slightly different .. in the last 6 home games .. the home team has scored just once .. (against another bottom of the table struggler) Agreed that Sporting have not been playing great .. but they have been able to put in at least one goal away from home in all but one of their last 6 games . (against better teams than this) I do see sporting scoring at least one in this game - possibly even two .... I don't see the home team scoring at all .. I figure sporting to win @ 1.6 is not value ... but I get odds of 2.0 which gives me the push if it ends 1-0 and a win if they manage to score two ....

I think the odds are worth the risk in this one - sporting are the better team ... this might be the opportunity they need to prove it to themselves - and anyone else who might be watching.

I've not had a huge bet - but its the only play for me today from my main bank

I do appreciate your input though and did consider this a riskier bet than normal for a lot of the reasons you stated .. but I could not see much else of value anywhere else today ... I think it ends 1-0 and I get a push ... but I can see it ending 2-0 and I get a return.

That's a good point, while Sporting have scored in nearly every game this team has only scored once at home. The problem with SL is their attack, they have one of the best defenses in the league and I can't see this team scoring unless its a spectacular long range effort or from a set piece.

Sporting need to get their season rolling and this would be the perfect chance, the only thing that worries me is the draw and SL not being able to score.

The Under2.5 double with the other Portuguese game may be worth looking into aswell.

**Wilforth** · 12-07-09, 01:51 PM

Vicenza ML

jw · 12-07-09, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

the only thing that worries me is the draw and SL not being able to score.

Yup - me too ... but I think the odds of 2.0 justify the chance you take on them not being able to score in this one .... the draw is probably the value play here @ just over 4.0 .. but I just had a feeling that this game might be the one where they turn things around ...

Originally posted by Karayilan9

The Under2.5 double with the other Portuguese game may be worth looking into aswell.

Yeah - I looked at that - but could only get a price u2 or u2,2.5 I can see two goals being scored in this game - maybe even 2-1 ... price on the under 2.5 was silly ...

jw · 12-07-09, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by jw

Cyprus: Aris @ 1.813

Ouch - beat 4-1 .. 3 penalties in this game. I have learned to keep most of my money in my pockets on Monday's for a reason - I never seem to do well on Monday's or in Europe.

**diecast** · 12-07-09, 02:57 PM

Sporting & Nacional parlay to win

bookies I use didn't have Isreal/Hapoel Tel Aviv, would've put a bit on them to win.

**TWEETS** · 12-07-09, 03:39 PM

Special Thanks to EP36 and Mihaita today for 2 excellent picks. I meant to take the Eng Champ game to go over as well, but forgot about it.

Looks like everyone should have a profitable day.

**mihaita666** · 12-07-09, 04:03 PM

you're welcome TWEETS, anytime...this soccer forum is damn great, there are so many fantastic cappers around (and im not considering myself one of them)

**OperatorX** · 12-07-09, 04:37 PM

thanks everyone

I had a great day other then vicenza, just couldn't put one in the back of the net.. oh well, still up on the day.

jw · 12-07-09, 04:42 PM

so far 2 win - 2 loss .. sporting the only one left ... maybe playing against 10 men will help them get the second .... neither team looks like it wants to score right now ....

edit :

2-0 final score - that'll do it ... I agree with your analysis K - any other team in the league I think would have got a result against sporting ... they really were poor today .. no fight in them at all - did not seem to want to win it .. or did not care if they did or not ... good for me that they met a team who seemed to care even less ...

3 wins 2 loss on the day ...

**diecast** · 12-07-09, 05:12 PM

ya, love this place. everyone's input is great.

looks like everyone got some wins today.

**mihaita666** · 12-07-09, 05:21 PM

lets hope that this kind of days will be more often

**Karayilan9** · 12-07-09, 05:26 PM

Good work 2day guys, Jw you got it