Mexican Apertura

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 04:15 PM

looking at it i like
Santos +100 2u and draw 1u +230 better chance to win some money rather than playing the pk
if they win you win 150 and draw you at least win 30 total i don't see Santos losing at home
than again santos is without a home loss and Guadalajara is without a away win
maybe over analyzing it a bit....

as for over not too confident in it gotta do more research

**Wilforth** · 10-19-09, 04:33 PM

Santos ML in a heart-beat!

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 04:49 PM

dont think should hedge?

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Santos ML in a heart-beat!

yea your right go with your first gut feeling im gonna go straight to much value for the better team @ home

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 04:58 PM

i like the Santos team total prop over 1.5 -105 as well

**Wilforth** · 10-19-09, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by demize21

dont think should hedge?

Let's look at this way: The Over has cashed in 83% of Guadalajara's road games. Why? Because they're conceding 2.5 goals per game (g/g) on the road while scoring 1.5 g/g. If you take away Guadalajara's road goals against the basement teams, their road scoring average falls to no more than 1 g/g. On the flip side, Santos are on a 4-1-0 home run, scoring an awesome 2.4 g/g while conceding a minuscule 0.8 g/g.

I daresay this game will end in a Santos win with any of these scorelines:

2-0
2-1
3-1.

Santos ML is definitely the better value than Over.

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 05:20 PM

i here ya on that but Santos over 1.5 has value as well cause i see it as 2-0 maybe 2-1 so the over 2.5 don't feel too confident laying that chalk but over 1.5 -105 for Santos i like a lot

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 05:29 PM

If Santos is such a heavy favorite why is the ML -105 at BookF*cker?

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 05:36 PM

What's up guys. I JUST came to the soccer forum to make this same post. Glad you beat me to it. I pounded the over in this one...i've got it for $200...I think 4 goals likely here. BOL guys

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 06:09 PM

Since I already have the over in my parlay (already hit 3 out of the 4), I put a half unit on Santos at -110 at BF'er.

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 06:09 PM

i took santos +100 ML, over 1.5 team total -105, exact scores 2-0 and 2-1 +700 each, and santos 1h +145
wager amounts on my SS
im not to sold on the over for that chalk

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 06:12 PM

I agree...I don't like the chalk...but I do like the over. Last 6 h2h have been over 2.5. They both like to play aggressive, and I think 2-1 or 3-1. I think Santos wins, but to be sure, I wanted to go O/U and have a winner hitting at the same time I watch my MNF teaser make me another c-note

**Wilforth** · 10-19-09, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by demize21

i took santos +100 ML, over 1.5 team total -105, exact scores 2-0 and 2-1 +700 each, and santos 1h +145
wager amounts on my SS
im not to sold on the over for that chalk

Santos 1H +145 really looks tempting.

**demize21** · 10-19-09, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

I agree...I don't like the chalk...but I do like the over. Last 6 h2h have been over 2.5. They both like to play aggressive, and I think 2-1 or 3-1. I think Santos wins, but to be sure, I wanted to go O/U and have a winner hitting at the same time I watch my MNF teaser make me another c-note

who you got in MNF teaser i like den and under in a tease and denver + the points

**TurkzZ** · 10-19-09, 06:30 PM

Both Teams are in pretty good form, Santos will be playing with 4 strikers today so i think there will will be lots of goals, Guadalajara are a good counter attacking team, maby even over 3.5

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by demize21

who you got in MNF teaser i like den and under in a tease and denver + the points

You nailed it mate...that's what I got too!

**Ace_of_Spades** · 10-19-09, 06:48 PM

Oh boy, everyone likes Santos and the over. But you can't deny the over here, it would be silly to take anything else with these two teams.

**Phillth** · 10-19-09, 06:53 PM

looks like santos' leading scorer is not starting

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by Phillth

looks like santos' leading scorer is not starting

Swine flu?

**TurkzZ** · 10-19-09, 06:58 PM

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Phillth

looks like santos' leading scorer is not starting

Phillth...come on man. He hasn't played since September 19th.

**Phillth** · 10-19-09, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

Phillth...come on man. He hasn't played since September 19th.

really? then how the hell is he still the leading scorer?

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 07:05 PM

Haha. He's only scored in 2 games. Brace and a hatty

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 07:15 PM

**Ace_of_Spades** · 10-19-09, 07:17 PM

Pitch looks terrible.

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 07:23 PM

LMAO! These guys look like they have no interest in scoring! Unreal.

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 07:24 PM

It only takes 1 goal to open things up guys. Let's keep patient here

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 07:28 PM

It would help if I knew which team was which since I don't Habla Espanol! Are Santos the green and white jerseys?

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 07:29 PM

I can't watch on tv...what's going on guys, how's it look

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 07:30 PM

Santos colors are green and white, I would guess that's them

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 07:31 PM

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 07:31 PM

Santos has dominated what little action there's been, but neither team is doing much.

**infamousbacardi** · 10-19-09, 07:34 PM

Damnit. Mexican leagues are usually slow starting games, they can put up 3 in a second half if need be, but we need 1 before half

**RoagBettor** · 10-19-09, 07:37 PM

This is brutal, I can't watch anymore.