Weekend soccer picks - Sep 18-20

**Karayilan9** · 09-18-09, 08:30 AM

I like Genoa, they are making the early run in the Serie A this year and will keep getting good odds as they arn't recognized as one of the big teams

**RoagBettor** · 09-18-09, 09:51 AM

I played this parlay:

Royal Charleroi PK +225
Vitoria Guimaraes PK -160
Spartak Nalchik PK -200

$25 to win $168.44

**Wilforth** · 09-18-09, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

I played this parlay:

Royal Charleroi PK +225
Vitoria Guimaraes PK -160
Spartak Nalchik PK -200

$25 to win $168.44

Royal Charleroi PK opened yesterday at +340 and dropped this morning to +225. The game is essentially a tossup. Charleroi is being undervalued because they had a poor season last year, but they're doing fine right now. They've even held St. Liege to a 1-1 draw on the road. Now to the facts:

Genk has a home scoring average of 1 goal/game (g/g) while conceding an average of 1.33 g/g. On the flip side, Charleroi scores 1.33 g/g on the road and conceding 1 g/g. Add to that the fact that Genk is yet to win a home game, and you find so much value in Charleroi PK at +225.

**RoagBettor** · 09-18-09, 10:29 AM

Wil, great info.

What about playing RC to win at +345 and to draw at +235? If Genk wins SU then I'm dead, but if RC is the play then I'd rather go for positive money.

**Wilforth** · 09-18-09, 11:27 AM

Roag,

If you haven't already placed the PK bet, then you could split into draw and ML bets. Otherwise, I think it'll be ok to let the PK play ride.

**RoagBettor** · 09-18-09, 11:31 AM

I only have it in the parlay right now.

I'm confused though. If I bet the PK and the game is a draw, the bet is a push with no winnings (and if RC loses the bet loses). If I bet the ML and the Draw separately, as long as RC doesn't lose I win something. Right?

**Outkast81** · 09-18-09, 03:29 PM

Wilforth,

Great f'ing pick on Charleroi dude.

I put them ML +385 with Wolfsburg at a Pick(+150) on a small parlay. We barely got that one, I think RC scored in the 90th minute to make it 2-1.

Thanks for giving my bankroll a boost before the football weekend (American and European lol)

**Wilforth** · 09-18-09, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Outkast81

Wilforth,

Great f'ing pick on Charleroi dude.

I put them ML +385 with Wolfsburg at a Pick(+150) on a small parlay. We barely got that one, I think RC scored in the 90th minute to make it 2-1.

Thanks for giving my bankroll a boost before the football weekend (American and European lol)

Thanks.

Among those remaining picks, the one I'm most confident of is Genoa +145. They're the better team by far. They're not getting a lot of respect because they're not considered an "elite" club.

**Outkast81** · 09-18-09, 03:45 PM

Smart man. They have an excellent strikeforce at Genoa, Palacio has not even kicked into gear yet. I also like how their goals are coming from midfield too, nice even scoring.

I took a small parlay for the futbol weekend - St. Truidense Pick (+110), Genoa ML +140, Villareal ML +160, Bordeaux ML -145, and Hamburg ML -110.

$25 to win $1000. I usually only place small bets on futbol and larger ones on NCAA/NFL, but given the way I have been going maybe I should switch it up

The only one I am considerably worried about it Hamburg. However, I like them at these odds, and think they have the depth and talent to rebound from the poor Europa showing.

**Wilforth** · 09-18-09, 06:43 PM

Outkast81,

You may also consider:

France: Monaco PK +110. They're on the road at a slumping OG Nice. Monaco are in great form right now.

**brbballin** · 09-19-09, 12:11 AM

with you on sunderland, they have not lost to burnley in the last 6 or 7 matches if im not mistaken. will add some more picks later before the other games start.

**lakerboy** · 09-19-09, 11:01 AM

guy sunderland fukked us big time they didnt even show up. i am not betting against burnley at turf moor ever again

**Wilforth** · 09-19-09, 11:03 AM

Sunderland was a disappointment. But Burnley have been great at home.
MK Dons won anyways.

**Wilforth** · 09-20-09, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Belgium: Royal Charleroi PK +225 WIN
Belgium: St. Truidens +170 WIN

England: Sunderland +145 LOSS
England (League 1): MK Dons +100 WIN

Germany 2: Union Berlin +145 LOSS

Italy: Genoa +145LOSS
Italy: Roma/Fiorentina (1st half) OVER 1.5 (+180) WIN
Italy 2: Ascoli/Brescia OVER 2.5 (+135) LOSS

Spain: Villareal +145 LOSS

4-5 +1.75

I can't complain. Still ended in black.

**RoagBettor** · 09-20-09, 07:11 PM

Nice job Wil.

Genoa didn't show up to play apparently, that would have been a nice cash. I laid off when I saw the line move the other way (albeit slightly), but I still put them in my parlay.

Good luck this week. Unless one of you guys has a rock solid play I'm taking a break from betting soccer. I went nuts on football and almost lost my whole roll.

**Wilforth** · 09-21-09, 05:08 PM

Roag,

I see your point. What I'll do for next weekend games is to pick about the 5 best home dogs I can find in Europe. Alreay, I think in Germany, Mochenglabach +325 should be a good pick. They're at home against Freibrug. Freiburg hasn't proven anything yet, despite their 2-0-1 road record. We know they've beaten Hertha on the road. And the books want us to assume that if Freiburg can beat Hertha, then they can easily beat Mochenglabach. Mochenglabach has also beaten Hertha this season. So, beating Hertha is no big deal. I see that game as a tossup in which the home team has a slight edge over the visitors. My leans in that game will be Mochenglabach ML or PK and Over.

**Wilforth** · 09-21-09, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Roag,

I see your point. What I'll do for next weekend games is to pick about the 5 best home dogs I can find in Europe. Alreay, I think in Germany, Mochenglabach +325 should be a good pick. They're at home against Freibrug. Freiburg hasn't proven anything yet, despite their 2-0-1 road record. We know they've beaten Hertha on the road. And the books want us to assume that if Freiburg can beat Hertha, then they can easily beat Mochenglabach. Mochenglabach has also beaten Hertha this season. So, beating Hertha is no big deal. I see that game as a tossup in which the home team has a slight edge over the visitors. My leans in that game will be Mochenglabach ML or PK and Over.

I got that wrong. Freiburg is at home. I thought they were they road team.