EURO 2020 Preview/Futures/Picks

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16 - Germany v England
England are unbeaten in their past 9 games where they kept 8 clean sheets only Poland has scored a goal versus England. The German defense is brutal giving up 15 GA in the past 9 games including to the likes of Hungary, North Macedonia & Latvia. The game will be in London so I'm jumping on the home team value.
77. England ML @ 2.62/+162 (1u) Marathon
78. Team Total Goals ENG OVER 1.5 @ 2.50/+150 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16 - Sweden v Ukraine
I have no idea what to think of this Ukrainian side they looked decent in their first 2 games and really bad vs Austria. Sweden even though painful to watch has been more consistent. Sweden come into the match undefeated in their past 8 games. Ukraine single victory came vs North Macedonia. Decent odds here on backing the swedes & I also like the over in a card prop whenever 2 poor sides meet.
79. Sweden ML @ 2.56/+156 (1u) Bet365
80. Sweden/Ukraine Total Cards OVER 3.5 @ 1.70/-143 (2u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Switzerland v Spain
Hard to find value on a side as the odds here are dead on. Spain wins this by a goal, I do not see the Swiss giant killing two consecutive teams especially missing their captain Granit Xhaka. The AH-1 also has no value. Looking at totals both sides are averaging 5.75 goals per match in their past 2 games. However the last 3 head to head meetings have all gone under the total with two 1-1 draws and a 1-0 win for Spain. Its basically a coin flip on the total of 2.5 but no value with prices of -110 for both sides. I will play a couple of props. In the Corner market The Swiss have had 27 corners in the past 4 games averaging 6.75 per game so I see value on the team corner prop. I'm also going to take an early goal prop as we have now had 10 straight games without an early goal perhaps we are due;
81. Switzerland Total Team Corners OVER 2.5 @ 1.80/-125 (2u) Bet365
82. Goal in the first 10 min YES @ 4.50/+350 (1/2 U) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Belgium v Italy
A match up worthy of a final. Two great teams in great form Italy undefeated in 31 & Belgium as well in the past 13. It is unfortunate that De Bruyne & E.Hazard are injured, even if they play they will not be at 100%. Italy are the fav's but I wont back them at these odds vs the number 1 ranked team in the world. I expect a tight game but the under also has no value. Italy finally conceded a goal after a record run. Belgium have scored in 34 straight games. I think that streak ends in this game, especially without De Bruyne in the lineup. Belgium have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the past 5 games & Italy 11 of past 12 have kept a clean sheet. Interestingly enough either side has given up or conceded a PK in this tournament. I'm thinking Belgium ageing defense could just do that so I'm playing 2 props, thinking 1-0 Italy.
83. PK in match YES @ 3.00/+200 (1u) Bet365
84. Italy Clean sheet YES @ 2.62/+162 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Updated Record
40-41-3 +14.30

[DiamondJack]

Czech Rep. v Denmark
I'm banking on the Danes to keep the tale going. Unlike Denmark who had 3 games at home and just had to travel down the road to Amsterdam the Czechs had to travel all over Europe and must be tired. Denmark also had an extra day of rest so players like Poulsen who I think might start on the bench and more importantly Kjaer will feature. It is also going to be very hot in Baku so I like the under, but could not find any value there. I also have a future on Denmark to reach the semis otherwise I would have put more units backing the Danes;
85. Denmark ML @ 2.17/+117 (2u) Pinnacle
86. BTTS NO @ 1.81/-123 (1u) Pinnacle
87. Denmark win to Nil @ 3.20/+220 (1/2 U) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

England v Ukraine
If England can take out the Germans playing a back 3 and win by 2 goals I think they can do the same versus a far more weaker side. Ukraine's luck (& they have had plenty) will run out here. Ukraine have only managed to win 3 of their past 13 games in regulation. England are yet to concede at these Euros and have an unbeaten streak of 10 games, 9 of which were wins to nil. There has not been any recent meetings between these sides. There is obviously no value on the ML or for England to advance lines. So betting what has been working;
88. England win to Nil @ 2.05/+105 (1u) Bet365
89. England -1.5 @ 2.44/+144 (1u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Updated heading into the Semi Finals
43-43-3 +17.40 Units

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Updated heading into the Semi Finals
43-43-3 +17.40 Units

Very nice record, pal. Won't say I've been tailing. But wish i HAD been.

Your read on these games has been very good.

[-FlawlessKid]

Updated heading into the Semi Finals
43-43-3 +17.40 Units

Congrats man, solid analysis and good results!

[DiamondJack]

Spain v Italy
Italy are on a 31 game undefeated streak with 23 clean sheets in that time span. Spain conversely have 14 clean sheets including loses to England Croatia & Ukraine. Spain's only win in 90 minutes came versus Slovakia. In regulation they failed to beat Poland,Sweden,Croatia & Switzerland, and with all due respect to those nations they are not in Italy's league. No value on Italy to advance, and since I already have a future on Italy to win the whole tournament, I'll be going for value here;
90. Italy ML @ 2.55/+155 (1u) Marathon
91. Italy win to Nil @ 4.00/+300 (1/2u) Bet365
92. Italy Clean sheet Yes @ 2.75/+175 (1u) Be365

[DiamondJack]

Chucky---
Flawless---

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good Luck, Jack! Do u make anything of the Italian Left-back being out?

[DiamondJack]

Denmark V England
All of England is on their side and there is zero value backing them here. The last time these sides met last year at Wembley Denmark won 1-0, the reverse fixture was a 0-0 draw in Denmark. England come into the match having kept 7 straight clean sheets. I see a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline heading into extra time. Since there is no value on the under the 2.5 total, I'll play
93. Denmark +0.5 @ 2.24/+124 (2u) Pinnacle

[Ryermkd]

Denmark V England
All of England is on their side and there is zero value backing them here. The last time these sides met last year at Wembley Denmark won 1-0, the reverse fixture was a 0-0 draw in Denmark. England come into the match having kept 7 straight clean sheets. I see a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline heading into extra time. Since there is no value on the under the 2.5 total, I'll play
93. Denmark +0.5 @ 2.24/+124 (2u) Pinnacle

I see you are into mysticism the way you write your nonsense.

[DiamondJack]

Italy v England
I will be backing Italy Big, but I think the prices/odds will get better close to kick off. I will be hunting for some props as well, after all the passionate English backers skew the odds. I'm holding off to get good value and watching the opening lines now, you can tell the books will be hurting for some Italy action come game time.

[DiamondJack]

Italy v England
The most telling stat that everyone should know is that in the past 15 games for both sides Italy & England have kept 11 clean sheets. Yep there is a 73% chance of 0-0 in regulation as both sides will play not to lose first. The last 2 head to head meetings have both ended in 1-1 ties. The Spinazzola injury is going to hurt Italy but the tie breaker for me here is that Mancini is a better manager then Southgate. I really wanted the odds to get to ITA +250 on the ML but it seems that in unlikely. There is no value on the under. I'm thinking 0-0, Italy wins in ET or Pk's and since I already have a future on Italy to win it all;
94. Italy/England to DRAW @ 3.10/+210 (1u) Marathon
95. CS 0-0 @ 6.50/+550 (1/2 u) Bet365
96. 1st Half result DRAW @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

OK guys another great tournament Final Record Including Futures 50-58-3 +27.73 Units