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  • cincinnatikid513
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 11-23-17
    • 45360

    #71
    Turkey Osmanlispor over 3 Push



    Chile Antofagasta universidad catolica over 2.5 -111
    Comment
    • cincinnatikid513
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-23-17
      • 45360

      #72
      Portugal

      Portimonense -112

      Portimonense Chaves over 2.5 -115

      home team scores alot of goals and gives up lots of goals
      Comment
      • cincinnatikid513
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 11-23-17
        • 45360

        #73
        Argentina

        Colon +205

        Racing Club -115
        Comment
        • cincinnatikid513
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-23-17
          • 45360

          #74
          Antofagasta over 2.5 Win
          Portimonense Loss
          Portimonense over 2.5 Loss

          Record 47-43 + 4.64 units
          Comment
          • cincinnatikid513
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-23-17
            • 45360

            #75
            Sunday

            Boca Juniors +116

            top of the table team solid record on the road
            Comment
            • cincinnatikid513
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 11-23-17
              • 45360

              #76
              Colon Loss
              Racing Club Win
              Boca Juniors Win

              Record 49-44 +5.80 units
              Comment
              • cincinnatikid513
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-23-17
                • 45360

                #77
                Spain

                Girona Espanyol over 2.5 +115

                England

                Cardiff Reading over 2 -119
                Comment
                • cincinnatikid513
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-23-17
                  • 45360

                  #78
                  Girona over Loss
                  Cardif over Win

                  record 50-45 +5.8 units
                  Comment
                  • cincinnatikid513
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-23-17
                    • 45360

                    #79
                    Tuesday

                    Germany

                    Wolfsburg vs Leipzig over 2.5 -116

                    Wolfsburg have been scoring lots of goals at home scored 3 goals in last 3 home matches leipzig has had 4 of last 5 road matches over 2.5 goals


                    England

                    Burnley Stoke Over 2 -122

                    Burnley have a pretty good home record and stoke is bad on the road gives up lots of goals

                    Crystal Palace vs Watford over 2.5 -117 * 2 units strong wager

                    Crystal Palace is really bad on the road in fact they have 0 goals in 8 road matches lucky for them they are playing at home tuesday where the last 5 home matches for palace they have scored 2 goals in every game and the total has gone over last 5 matches watford has given up alot of goals on the road and are better scoring away than home all the signs point to a over here
                    Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 12-12-17, 12:23 AM.
                    Comment
                    • franz555
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-13-14
                      • 10581

                      #80
                      Kid With you in England and Germany Lets see it rain goals over both


                      BOL
                      Comment
                      • PapaStef
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 09-18-17
                        • 215

                        #81
                        On the Watford Palace over as well. Also took DNB for Burnley. Lots of juice in that bet but Stoke awful away from home and Burnley don’t give up goals at home.

                        BOL!
                        Comment
                        • cincinnatikid513
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 11-23-17
                          • 45360

                          #82
                          Originally posted by PapaStef
                          On the Watford Palace over as well. Also took DNB for Burnley. Lots of juice in that bet but Stoke awful away from home and Burnley don’t give up goals at home.

                          BOL!
                          like it, burnley do look the better side i almost played them to win took the over instead
                          Comment
                          • Sharpes
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 09-01-17
                            • 481

                            #83
                            Kid also like the palace over 3 at +135.
                            Comment
                            • cincinnatikid513
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 11-23-17
                              • 45360

                              #84
                              Originally posted by Sharpes
                              Kid also like the palace over 3 at +135.
                              feels like might push alot with the 3 very interested watch this game see if palace can keep scoring well at home
                              Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 12-12-17, 12:11 PM.
                              Comment
                              • Sharpes
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 09-01-17
                                • 481

                                #85
                                Using a poisson distribution and an avg of 3.2 total goals per game as per the home away split you mention, we get 35% chance of less than 3, 22% chance of exactly 3 and 43% of greater than 3.

                                I got lines of -125 for o 2.5 and +135 for o 3, so the expected value of each bet is:

                                EV(+135) = (.43)(135) + (.35)(-100) = 23.05
                                EV(-125) = (.65)(100) + (.35)(-125) = 21.25

                                So slightly better return at +135 even though you push 22% of the time
                                Comment
                                • cincinnatikid513
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 11-23-17
                                  • 45360

                                  #86
                                  WOW CRYSTAL PALACE u legends
                                  Comment
                                  • cincinnatikid513
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 11-23-17
                                    • 45360

                                    #87
                                    palace saved a bad day 2 late goals wow love it

                                    Wolfsburg over Loss

                                    Burnley Over Loss

                                    Palace over Win

                                    Record 51-47 +5.42 units
                                    Comment
                                    • cincinnatikid513
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 11-23-17
                                      • 45360

                                      #88
                                      Wednesday

                                      Scotland

                                      Rangers Hibernian over 2.5 -116

                                      Hibernian 3 of last 4 home matches over 2.5 goals, Rangers last 11 road matches over 2.5 goals tied w celtic most road goals in league


                                      Poland

                                      Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin over 2.5 -101

                                      gdansk 6 of last 7 home matches over 2.5 goals pogon gives up alot of road goals

                                      Lechia Gdansk +106

                                      home team has really been scoring alot of goals and with road team very poor away this could be a 3-0 home win
                                      Comment
                                      • Sharpes
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 09-01-17
                                        • 481

                                        #89
                                        Haha,after all the math, you won and I pushed -both due to two miraculous goals after a red card at 87’. The extra time goal was a classic all out rush the goal 11 on 10. Nice to get one like that on our side for a change,
                                        Comment
                                        • PapaStef
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 09-18-17
                                          • 215

                                          #90
                                          Deeney also missed an absolute sitter earlier in the match which obviously would have helped with the over.
                                          Comment
                                          • cincinnatikid513
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 11-23-17
                                            • 45360

                                            #91
                                            England

                                            Newcastle Everton over 2.5 +119

                                            everton give up alot of goals on the road last 5 new castle games over
                                            Comment
                                            • cincinnatikid513
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 11-23-17
                                              • 45360

                                              #92
                                              Rangers over Win -
                                              Gdansk Over Win
                                              Gdansk Loss
                                              Everton over Loss

                                              Record 53-49 +5.42 units
                                              Comment
                                              • cincinnatikid513
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 11-23-17
                                                • 45360

                                                #93
                                                Thursday

                                                Netherlands 12:30

                                                Heracles +139

                                                like the home side good home record 5 wins 2 draws 1 loss score well at home on a nice un beated streak at home sparta one of the worst road teams in the league 0 wins 3 draws 4 losses give up alot of goals all the signs point to a home win
                                                Comment
                                                • cincinnatikid513
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 11-23-17
                                                  • 45360

                                                  #94
                                                  Thursday upset play

                                                  Italy Coppa Italia Lazio vs Citadella line was +1042 now up to +1122 who knows where it will be before kickoff

                                                  taking a shot with the serie b team citadella, think they are worth 1 unit shot, they are in good form scoring at least 2 goals in each of last 5 games 4 wins and 1 draw, also they have beat 2 serie a teams in the cup already spal and bologna and both were road victories, tommorow will be harder at lazio but lazio isn't in the best of form should use backup players
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cincinnatikid513
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 11-23-17
                                                    • 45360

                                                    #95
                                                    so much for upset play lazio crushing citadella 3-1 at half will call that one a loss if something crazy happens can fix can't see citadella scoring 3 in 2 half

                                                    Heracles Win
                                                    Citadella Loss

                                                    Record 54-50 +5.81
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cincinnatikid513
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 11-23-17
                                                      • 45360

                                                      #96
                                                      Bolivia
                                                      Oriente petrolero +100

                                                      oriente petrolero sport boys over 2.5 -129

                                                      oriente very solid home record sport boys not good on road
                                                      Comment
                                                      • franz555
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-13-14
                                                        • 10581

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by cincinnatikid513
                                                        Bolivia
                                                        Oriente petrolero +100

                                                        oriente petrolero sport boys over 2.5 -129

                                                        oriente very solid home record sport boys not good on road
                                                        Kid I like both as well. Lets cash'em

                                                        BOL
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cincinnatikid513
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 11-23-17
                                                          • 45360

                                                          #98
                                                          Friday

                                                          hoping have a big friday like these games alot

                                                          Borussia Monchengladbach -123

                                                          like home team here in germany hamburger very poor on the road 1-1 5 losses

                                                          France Ligue 2

                                                          Bourg Peronnas vs Lorient over 2.5 -121 2 units

                                                          Bourg given up league high 39 goals Lorient 4 of last 5 away matches over love this match alot

                                                          Quevilly vs Breast over 2.5 +100

                                                          quevilley give up alot of goals brest one of the better road scoring teams brest 4 of 5 road matches over 2.5

                                                          Poland

                                                          Korona Kielce vs Piast Gilwice over 2.5 -116 2 units

                                                          korona 4 of 5 home matches over piast 4 of 5 road matches over korona one of top home scoring teams league piast conceed almost the most road goals in league

                                                          Slask Wroclaw vs
                                                          Jagiellonia Bialystok over 2.5 +102

                                                          Slask scores well at home Jagiellonia score well on road and conceed lot of goals last 3 meetings over

                                                          Romania Astra -107

                                                          astra very strong home record score lots of goals Botonsani not as good on road

                                                          Astra vs Botonsani over 2 -144

                                                          Astra at home have scored at least 2 goals in last 6 home matches

                                                          Spain 2nd divison

                                                          Cadiz -112

                                                          cadiz on a 7 game un beaten streak fighting for a promotion spot barca b not as good on the road as they are at home


                                                          Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 12-14-17, 08:41 PM. Reason: spelling
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cincinnatikid513
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 11-23-17
                                                            • 45360

                                                            #99
                                                            Oriente Loss
                                                            Oriente Over Win

                                                            Record 55-51 +5.81 units
                                                            Comment
                                                            • cincinnatikid513
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 11-23-17
                                                              • 45360

                                                              #100
                                                              Saturday
                                                              England

                                                              Leicester City vs Crystal Palace under 2.5 -107 palace can't score on road 0 goals scored last 2 away games 0-0 0 goals in 8 road matches

                                                              Arsenal -1.5 -131
                                                              Arsenal Newcastle over 3 -130 arsenal are scoring well at home newcastle give up ton goals on road looks like a 4-0 5-0 beat down

                                                              Chelsea South Hampton over 2.5 -133 South hampton have been conceeding goals usually good for a goal on road 2-1 3-1 chelsea win

                                                              Watford -123 huddersfield can't score on road this is just a matter how bad 1-0 2-0 or 3-0 win

                                                              Bolton +100 burton give up alot of goals very bad on the road

                                                              Brentford Barnsley over 3 -128

                                                              Bristol City -109 nottingham poor on road give up lot goals

                                                              Ipswich Reading over 2.5 +107 4 of 5 home over 4 of 5 road over

                                                              Norwich Leeds over 2.5 +108

                                                              Millwall Middlesbrough over 2 -135 middle 4 of 5 on road over 2.5 goals

                                                              Preston Sheffield United over 2.5 +107 sheff 4 of 5 on road over

                                                              Fullham sunderland over 2.5 -114 Full 4 of 5 over home sund 4 of 5 over road

                                                              Afc Wimbledon Wigan over 2.5 +132 afc 3 of 5 home over wigan 4 of 5 over road

                                                              Black Burn Rovers -123
                                                              Black Burn Roers Charlton over 2.5 -105 both teams scoring well black 5 match win streak

                                                              Scunthorpe -107

                                                              Scotland

                                                              Aberdeen Hibernian over 2.5 -103
                                                              Kilmarnock vs Motherwell over 2.5 +105
                                                              Rangers vs St Johnstone over 2.5 -141
                                                              Falkirk vs Brechin over 2.5 -138
                                                              Queen of South Dundee over 2.5 -107
                                                              St Mirren vs Dunfermline over 2.5 -138

                                                              Turkey

                                                              Genclerbirligi vs kasimpasa over 2.5 -130
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cincinnatikid513
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 11-23-17
                                                                • 45360

                                                                #101
                                                                Borussia Win
                                                                Bourg over Win
                                                                Brest over Win
                                                                Korona over Loss
                                                                Slask over Loss
                                                                Astra Win
                                                                Astra Over Win
                                                                Cadiz Win

                                                                Record 61-53 +9.49
                                                                Comment
                                                                • franz555
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-13-14
                                                                  • 10581

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Kid Well done today


                                                                  I am looking to hammer Leicester tomorrow. I was also leaning to the over 2.5 with Sakho , Mensah and Milivojevic all out for Palace.
                                                                  I see that you like the Under 2.5, will have to rethink that one

                                                                  BOL tomorrow
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cincinnatikid513
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 11-23-17
                                                                    • 45360

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by franz555
                                                                    Kid Well done today

                                                                    I am looking to hammer Leicester tomorrow. I was also leaning to the over 2.5 with Sakho , Mensah and Milivojevic all out for Palace.
                                                                    I see that you like the Under 2.5, will have to rethink that one

                                                                    BOL tomorrow

                                                                    i think the safer play than the over is city to win my thinking is palace will play for the draw 0-0 they can't score on the road, over scares me when one team is so bad, l city could win this 1-0 or 2-0 , i was surprised how good the odds on leicester are -111 i thought would be around -150
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cincinnatikid513
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 11-23-17
                                                                      • 45360

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Added Games Saturday

                                                                      France

                                                                      Rennes vs Psg under 3 +113

                                                                      Dijon vs Lille over 2.5 +124 2 units dijon scoring well home 4 of 5 home over lille last 5 away over 2.5

                                                                      Montpellier -1 -126 metz are very poor on road

                                                                      Strasbourg Toulouse over 2.5 +121 Strasbourg 4 of 5 home over Toulouse conceed most away goals in league

                                                                      Germany

                                                                      Augsburg vs Freiburg over 2.5 -115 Augsburg 3 of 5 home over Freiburg conceed most goals in league on road

                                                                      Italy

                                                                      Inter milan vs Udinese over 3 +106 inter strong at home udinese 4 of 5 on road at least 3 goals

                                                                      Spain

                                                                      Eibar vs Valencia over 2.5 +104

                                                                      Turkey

                                                                      Trabzonspor vs bursaspor over 3 -108

                                                                      Poland

                                                                      Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdyiana over 2.5 +112

                                                                      Legia Warsaw -1 -122 very solid home record

                                                                      Legia Warsaw vs Wilsa Plock over 2.5 -114
                                                                      Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 12-15-17, 06:55 PM. Reason: added game twice
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • cincinnatikid513
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 11-23-17
                                                                        • 45360

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Saturday

                                                                        France

                                                                        Dijon +134

                                                                        like how this team is playing won it's last 4 home matches lille poor on road
                                                                        Comment
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