Turkey Osmanlispor over 3 Push
Chile Antofagasta universidad catolica over 2.5 -111
Chile Antofagasta universidad catolica over 2.5 -111
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Comment -
Portugal
Portimonense -112
Portimonense Chaves over 2.5 -115
home team scores alot of goals and gives up lots of goalsComment -
Argentina
Colon +205
Racing Club -115Comment -
Antofagasta over 2.5 Win
Portimonense Loss
Portimonense over 2.5 Loss
Record 47-43 + 4.64 unitsComment -
Sunday
Boca Juniors +116
top of the table team solid record on the roadComment -
Colon Loss
Racing Club Win
Boca Juniors Win
Record 49-44 +5.80 unitsComment -
Spain
Girona Espanyol over 2.5 +115
England
Cardiff Reading over 2 -119Comment -
Girona over Loss
Cardif over Win
record 50-45 +5.8 unitsComment -
Tuesday
Germany
Wolfsburg vs Leipzig over 2.5 -116
Wolfsburg have been scoring lots of goals at home scored 3 goals in last 3 home matches leipzig has had 4 of last 5 road matches over 2.5 goals
England
Burnley Stoke Over 2 -122
Burnley have a pretty good home record and stoke is bad on the road gives up lots of goals
Crystal Palace vs Watford over 2.5 -117 * 2 units strong wager
Crystal Palace is really bad on the road in fact they have 0 goals in 8 road matches lucky for them they are playing at home tuesday where the last 5 home matches for palace they have scored 2 goals in every game and the total has gone over last 5 matches watford has given up alot of goals on the road and are better scoring away than home all the signs point to a over hereLast edited by cincinnatikid513; 12-12-17, 12:23 AM.Comment -
Kid With you in England and Germany Lets see it rain goals over both
BOL
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On the Watford Palace over as well. Also took DNB for Burnley. Lots of juice in that bet but Stoke awful away from home and Burnley don’t give up goals at home.
BOL!Comment -
Kid also like the palace over 3 at +135.Comment -
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Using a poisson distribution and an avg of 3.2 total goals per game as per the home away split you mention, we get 35% chance of less than 3, 22% chance of exactly 3 and 43% of greater than 3.
I got lines of -125 for o 2.5 and +135 for o 3, so the expected value of each bet is:
EV(+135) = (.43)(135) + (.35)(-100) = 23.05
EV(-125) = (.65)(100) + (.35)(-125) = 21.25
So slightly better return at +135 even though you push 22% of the timeComment -
WOW CRYSTAL PALACE u legends
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palace saved a bad day 2 late goals wow love it
Wolfsburg over Loss
Burnley Over Loss
Palace over Win
Record 51-47 +5.42 unitsComment -
Wednesday
Scotland
Rangers Hibernian over 2.5 -116
Hibernian 3 of last 4 home matches over 2.5 goals, Rangers last 11 road matches over 2.5 goals tied w celtic most road goals in league
Poland
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin over 2.5 -101
gdansk 6 of last 7 home matches over 2.5 goals pogon gives up alot of road goals
Lechia Gdansk +106
home team has really been scoring alot of goals and with road team very poor away this could be a 3-0 home winComment -
Haha,after all the math, you won and I pushed -both due to two miraculous goals after a red card at 87’. The extra time goal was a classic all out rush the goal 11 on 10. Nice to get one like that on our side for a change,Comment -
Deeney also missed an absolute sitter earlier in the match which obviously would have helped with the over.Comment -
England
Newcastle Everton over 2.5 +119
everton give up alot of goals on the road last 5 new castle games overComment -
Rangers over Win -
Gdansk Over Win
Gdansk Loss
Everton over Loss
Record 53-49 +5.42 unitsComment -
Thursday
Netherlands 12:30
Heracles +139
like the home side good home record 5 wins 2 draws 1 loss score well at home on a nice un beated streak at home sparta one of the worst road teams in the league 0 wins 3 draws 4 losses give up alot of goals all the signs point to a home winComment -
Thursday upset play
Italy Coppa Italia Lazio vs Citadella line was +1042 now up to +1122 who knows where it will be before kickoff
taking a shot with the serie b team citadella, think they are worth 1 unit shot, they are in good form scoring at least 2 goals in each of last 5 games 4 wins and 1 draw, also they have beat 2 serie a teams in the cup already spal and bologna and both were road victories, tommorow will be harder at lazio but lazio isn't in the best of form should use backup playersComment -
so much for upset play lazio crushing citadella 3-1 at half will call that one a loss if something crazy happens can fix can't see citadella scoring 3 in 2 half
Heracles Win
Citadella Loss
Record 54-50 +5.81Comment -
Bolivia
Oriente petrolero +100
oriente petrolero sport boys over 2.5 -129
oriente very solid home record sport boys not good on roadComment -
Friday
hoping have a big friday like these games alot
Borussia Monchengladbach -123
like home team here in germany hamburger very poor on the road 1-1 5 losses
France Ligue 2
Bourg Peronnas vs Lorient over 2.5 -121 2 units
Bourg given up league high 39 goals Lorient 4 of last 5 away matches over love this match alot
Quevilly vs Breast over 2.5 +100
quevilley give up alot of goals brest one of the better road scoring teams brest 4 of 5 road matches over 2.5
Poland
Korona Kielce vs Piast Gilwice over 2.5 -116 2 units
korona 4 of 5 home matches over piast 4 of 5 road matches over korona one of top home scoring teams league piast conceed almost the most road goals in league
Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok over 2.5 +102
Slask scores well at home Jagiellonia score well on road and conceed lot of goals last 3 meetings over
Romania Astra -107
astra very strong home record score lots of goals Botonsani not as good on road
Astra vs Botonsani over 2 -144
Astra at home have scored at least 2 goals in last 6 home matches
Spain 2nd divison
Cadiz -112
cadiz on a 7 game un beaten streak fighting for a promotion spot barca b not as good on the road as they are at home
Comment -
Oriente Loss
Oriente Over Win
Record 55-51 +5.81 unitsComment -
Saturday
England
Leicester City vs Crystal Palace under 2.5 -107 palace can't score on road 0 goals scored last 2 away games 0-0 0 goals in 8 road matches
Arsenal -1.5 -131
Arsenal Newcastle over 3 -130 arsenal are scoring well at home newcastle give up ton goals on road looks like a 4-0 5-0 beat down
Chelsea South Hampton over 2.5 -133 South hampton have been conceeding goals usually good for a goal on road 2-1 3-1 chelsea win
Watford -123 huddersfield can't score on road this is just a matter how bad 1-0 2-0 or 3-0 win
Bolton +100 burton give up alot of goals very bad on the road
Brentford Barnsley over 3 -128
Bristol City -109 nottingham poor on road give up lot goals
Ipswich Reading over 2.5 +107 4 of 5 home over 4 of 5 road over
Norwich Leeds over 2.5 +108
Millwall Middlesbrough over 2 -135 middle 4 of 5 on road over 2.5 goals
Preston Sheffield United over 2.5 +107 sheff 4 of 5 on road over
Fullham sunderland over 2.5 -114 Full 4 of 5 over home sund 4 of 5 over road
Afc Wimbledon Wigan over 2.5 +132 afc 3 of 5 home over wigan 4 of 5 over road
Black Burn Rovers -123
Black Burn Roers Charlton over 2.5 -105 both teams scoring well black 5 match win streak
Scunthorpe -107
Scotland
Aberdeen Hibernian over 2.5 -103
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell over 2.5 +105
Rangers vs St Johnstone over 2.5 -141
Falkirk vs Brechin over 2.5 -138
Queen of South Dundee over 2.5 -107
St Mirren vs Dunfermline over 2.5 -138
Turkey
Genclerbirligi vs kasimpasa over 2.5 -130Comment -
Borussia Win
Bourg over Win
Brest over Win
Korona over Loss
Slask over Loss
Astra Win
Astra Over Win
Cadiz Win
Record 61-53 +9.49Comment -
Kid Well done today
I am looking to hammer Leicester tomorrow. I was also leaning to the over 2.5 with Sakho , Mensah and Milivojevic all out for Palace.
I see that you like the Under 2.5, will have to rethink that one
BOL tomorrow
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i think the safer play than the over is city to win my thinking is palace will play for the draw 0-0 they can't score on the road, over scares me when one team is so bad, l city could win this 1-0 or 2-0 , i was surprised how good the odds on leicester are -111 i thought would be around -150Comment -
Added Games Saturday
France
Rennes vs Psg under 3 +113
Dijon vs Lille over 2.5 +124 2 units dijon scoring well home 4 of 5 home over lille last 5 away over 2.5
Montpellier -1 -126 metz are very poor on road
Strasbourg Toulouse over 2.5 +121 Strasbourg 4 of 5 home over Toulouse conceed most away goals in league
Germany
Augsburg vs Freiburg over 2.5 -115 Augsburg 3 of 5 home over Freiburg conceed most goals in league on road
Italy
Inter milan vs Udinese over 3 +106 inter strong at home udinese 4 of 5 on road at least 3 goals
Spain
Eibar vs Valencia over 2.5 +104
Turkey
Trabzonspor vs bursaspor over 3 -108
Poland
Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdyiana over 2.5 +112
Legia Warsaw -1 -122 very solid home record
Legia Warsaw vs Wilsa Plock over 2.5 -114Comment -
Saturday
France
Dijon +134
like how this team is playing won it's last 4 home matches lille poor on roadComment
