Soccer Betting Diary

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  • TechnicalTrader
    SBR MVP
    • 05-09-16
    • 1434

    #176
    Thanks nash. Let's get em!
    Comment
    • Division
      SBR High Roller
      • 05-31-16
      • 150

      #177
      Interesting thread, good work and thanks for taking the time to post your picks. As I am very much anti stats only based betting (while obviously making heavy use of stats in my methodology) I am very interested to know more about your approach. Those lower English leagues can be hugely unpredictable.

      How much of how you select bets are you willing to share?
      Comment
      • TechnicalTrader
        SBR MVP
        • 05-09-16
        • 1434

        #178
        Staring at an 0 for 6 start to the day...
        Comment
        • nash13
          SBR MVP
          • 01-21-14
          • 1122

          #179
          Originally posted by Division
          Interesting thread, good work and thanks for taking the time to post your picks. As I am very much anti stats only based betting (while obviously making heavy use of stats in my methodology) I am very interested to know more about your approach. Those lower English leagues can be hugely unpredictable.

          How much of how you select bets are you willing to share?
          Hello, thanks for the interest in my research. I use a paid soccer database (CGMBet). For a one time fee it is unlimited for the life of the program. In that program you have every kind of stat league and team wise. You can develop Ratings, Form, Goal distribution, ELO Ratings, Streaks, Trends and many more.
          I use Form evaluation and try to convert ELO Rating to winning estimations.
          It has shown good results since the start of soccer season, but you'll never know.
          Comment
          • nash13
            SBR MVP
            • 01-21-14
            • 1122

            #180
            Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
            Staring at an 0 for 6 start to the day...
            Watched the Fenerbahce game live on second screen, ref screwed them big time.
            Comment
            • nash13
              SBR MVP
              • 01-21-14
              • 1122

              #181
              bet no. country league datameci home away pick odd profit
              4304 Bulgaria Premier L 12.12.16 Pirin Beroe Pirin 2.92 -1
              4305 Poland Ekstraklasa 12.12.16 Arka Gdynia Jagiellonia Arka Gdynia 3.6 -1
              4306 Turkey Super Lig 12.12.16 Antalyaspor Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 1.75 -1
              4307 Greece Super L 12.12.16 PAS Giannina Olympiacos Over 2.5 2.14 -1
              4308 Romania Divizia 1 12.12.16 Concordia Viitorul Concordia 4.95 -1
              4309 Romania Divizia 1 12.12.16 Concordia Viitorul Over 2.5 2.32 +1.32
              4310 Germany Bundesliga 2 12.12.16 Stuttgart Hannover Stuttgart +0.5 1.27 -1
              4311 Spain Primera 12.12.16 Villarreal At. Madrid Under 2.5 1.65 -1
              4312 Italy Serie A 12.12.16 Roma Milan Roma 1.75 +0.75
              4313 Portugal Primeira L 12.12.16 Arouca Rio Ave Rio Ave 2.84 +1.87
              3-7
              -3.06

              Ovr:
              386-416
              +50.73

              6.33% Yield
              Last edited by nash13; 12-12-16, 05:20 PM.
              Comment
              • nash13
                SBR MVP
                • 01-21-14
                • 1122

                #182
                bet no. country league date home away pick
                4314 Bulgaria Premier L 13.12.16 Montana Vereya Montana
                4315 Bulgaria Premier L 13.12.16 Montana Vereya Over 2.5
                4316 England Premier L 13.12.16 Everton Arsenal Arsenal
                4317 England Premier L 13.12.16 Everton Arsenal Under 2.5
                4318 England Championship 13.12.16 Norwich Aston Villa Under 2.5
                4319 England Championship 13.12.16 Leeds Reading Reading
                4320 England Championship 13.12.16 Leeds Reading Over 2.5
                4321 England Championship 13.12.16 Sheff Wed Barnsley Sheff Wed
                4322 England Championship 13.12.16 Sheff Wed Barnsley Over 2.5
                4323 England Championship 13.12.16 Birmingham Ipswich Ipswich
                4324 England Championship 13.12.16 Birmingham Ipswich Over 2.5
                4325 England Championship 13.12.16 Cardiff Wolves Draw
                4326 England Championship 13.12.16 Cardiff Wolves Under 2.5
                4327 Scotland Premier L 13.12.16 Aberdeen Motherwell Aberdeen
                4328 Scotland Premier L 13.12.16 Celtic Hamilton Celtic
                4329 Scotland Premier L 13.12.16 Celtic Hamilton Under 2.5
                Comment
                • nash13
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-21-14
                  • 1122

                  #183
                  bet no. country league date home away pick odd profit
                  4314 Bulgaria Premier L 13.12.16 Montana Vereya Montana 2.71 -1
                  4315 Bulgaria Premier L 13.12.16 Montana Vereya Over 2.5 2.38 -1
                  4316 England Premier L 13.12.16 Everton Arsenal Arsenal 1.96 -1
                  4317 England Premier L 13.12.16 Everton Arsenal Under 2.5 2.4 -1
                  4318 England Championship 13.12.16 Norwich Aston Villa Under 2.5 1.85 +0.85
                  4319 England Championship 13.12.16 Leeds Reading Reading 4.15 -1
                  4320 England Championship 13.12.16 Leeds Reading Over 2.5 2.22 -1
                  4321 England Championship 13.12.16 Sheff Wed Barnsley Sheff Wed 1.84 +0.84
                  4322 England Championship 13.12.16 Sheff Wed Barnsley Over 2.5 1.93 -1
                  4323 England Championship 13.12.16 Birmingham Ipswich Ipswich 3.72 -1
                  4324 England Championship 13.12.16 Birmingham Ipswich Over 2.5 2.46 +1.46
                  4325 England Championship 13.12.16 Cardiff Wolves Draw 3.5 -1
                  4326 England Championship 13.12.16 Cardiff Wolves Under 2.5 1.9 -1
                  4327 Scotland Premier L 13.12.16 Aberdeen Motherwell Aberdeen pp pp
                  4328 Scotland Premier L 13.12.16 Celtic Hamilton Celtic 1.15 +0.15
                  4329 Scotland Premier L 13.12.16 Celtic Hamilton Under 2.5 4.26 +3.26
                  5-10
                  -3.44
                  Ovr:
                  391-426
                  +47.29
                  Comment
                  • nash13
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-21-14
                    • 1122

                    #184
                    bet no. country league date home away pick
                    4330 Bulgaria Premier L 14.12.16 Lok Plovdiv Slavia Sofia Lok Plovdiv
                    4331 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Radnicki Nis Metalac Draw
                    4332 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vozdovac Mladost L Mladost L
                    4333 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vozdovac Mladost L Under 2.5
                    4334 Bulgaria Premier L 14.12.16 Ludogorets Cherno More Under 2.5
                    4335 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Radnik Red Star Radnik
                    4336 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Radnik Red Star Under 2.5
                    4337 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Javor Napredak Over 2.5
                    4338 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vojvodina Cukaricki Stankom Draw
                    4339 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vojvodina Cukaricki Stankom Over 2.5
                    4340 England Premier L 14.12.16 Sunderland Chelsea Chelsea
                    4341 England Premier L 14.12.16 Sunderland Chelsea Over 2.5
                    4342 England Premier L 14.12.16 West Ham Burnley Burnley
                    4343 England Premier L 14.12.16 Middlesbrough Liverpool Middlesbrough
                    4344 England Championship 14.12.16 Nottingham Forest Preston Nottingham Forest
                    4345 England Championship 14.12.16 Queens Park Derby Under 2.5
                    4346 England Championship 14.12.16 Wigan Newcastle Wigan
                    4347 Spain Segunda 14.12.16 Levante Vallecano Levante
                    4348 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Southampton
                    4349 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Over 2.5
                    4350 England Premier L 14.12.16 Tottenham Hull Under 2.5
                    4351 England Premier L 14.12.16 Man City Watford Watford
                    4352 England Premier L 14.12.16 Man City Watford Over 2.5
                    Comment
                    • Division
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 05-31-16
                      • 150

                      #185
                      Originally posted by nash13
                      Hello, thanks for the interest in my research. I use a paid soccer database (CGMBet). For a one time fee it is unlimited for the life of the program. In that program you have every kind of stat league and team wise. You can develop Ratings, Form, Goal distribution, ELO Ratings, Streaks, Trends and many more.
                      I use Form evaluation and try to convert ELO Rating to winning estimations.
                      It has shown good results since the start of soccer season, but you'll never know.
                      People have been doing that for a long time. It doesn't work well. How would it rate a team like Leicester, home and away, this season versus last season? Its basically like looking at 4 different teams and thats before Leicester changed tactics in the second half of last season and became much more defensive.

                      Chelsea are a different team this season versus last season.

                      Couthinho, the main playmaker/scorer, is injured for Liverpool for the next couple of weeks at least, how will that affect the probabilities?

                      West Ham have a few players coming back from reasonably long term injuries... How will this be represented?

                      Aguero, arguably the best striker in the Premier League is suspended for Man City and he is being replaced by an inexperienced teenager... how is this represented?
                      Comment
                      • Division
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 05-31-16
                        • 150

                        #186
                        4348 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Southampton
                        4349 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Over 2.5
                        What is the logic for betting these markets in this game? What is the probability of each winning? What odds are you basing it on?

                        I know it sounds confrontational but I'm genuinely interested in your approach.
                        Comment
                        • nash13
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-21-14
                          • 1122

                          #187
                          Originally posted by Division
                          People have been doing that for a long time. It doesn't work well. How would it rate a team like Leicester, home and away, this season versus last season? Its basically like looking at 4 different teams and thats before Leicester changed tactics in the second half of last season and became much more defensive.

                          Chelsea are a different team this season versus last season.

                          Couthinho, the main playmaker/scorer, is injured for Liverpool for the next couple of weeks at least, how will that affect the probabilities?

                          West Ham have a few players coming back from reasonably long term injuries... How will this be represented?

                          Aguero, arguably the best striker in the Premier League is suspended for Man City and he is being replaced by an inexperienced teenager... how is this represented?
                          All valid points there, the methodology depends not only on ELO estimations, but form calculations too, so a ELO strength is only the starting point of the equation, you look for certain intervals of teams in the past which performed under the same circumstances.
                          The difference here is like looking at a video and looking at a photo. ELO is the photo: a screenshot of a certain situation, while building intervals and taking variance and form into account is like a video, you see movement, trends and patterns.

                          This may very well crash and burn in the next months, I am aware of that.
                          But thanks for the interest.
                          Comment
                          • nash13
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-21-14
                            • 1122

                            #188
                            Originally posted by Division
                            4348 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Southampton
                            4349 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Over 2.5
                            What is the logic for betting these markets in this game? What is the probability of each winning? What odds are you basing it on?

                            I know it sounds confrontational but I'm genuinely interested in your approach.
                            The picking process is NOT based on odds of the game right now. It is based on the odds of the ELO intervals from the past.
                            So let's say you have Stoke and Southampton being on a relatively equal level form and ELO wise, what were the outcomes of this situation in the past? If there was value on betting 1-X-2 or O/U, so we take one of them.
                            These are not depending on each other, so a result in Win/Draw/Loss is not connected to Overs and Unders here.
                            The odds statistics in the DB are taken from Pinnacle.
                            Comment
                            • nash13
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-21-14
                              • 1122

                              #189

                              this is a screenshot with the goals distribution based on teams ELO and Last 5 season stats.
                              the displayed odds are the ones that are based on the outcomes in the games in the interval of +/-75 ELO per Team
                              West Ham 1739
                              Burnley 1734
                              away odd should be 3.47
                              it is nearly 6 at some bookmakers, so this contains value for me.
                              Comment
                              • Division
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 05-31-16
                                • 150

                                #190
                                Originally posted by nash13
                                http://prntscr.com/djb8j0
                                this is a screenshot with the goals distribution based on teams ELO and Last 5 season stats.
                                the displayed odds are the ones that are based on the outcomes in the games in the interval of +/-75 ELO per Team
                                West Ham 1739
                                Burnley 1734
                                away odd should be 3.47
                                it is nearly 6 at some bookmakers, so this contains value for me.
                                That analysis on Burnley gives a 172% expected value. That simply does not happen in the win-draw-win market in the most bet soccer league in the world. That should be a warning sign to you that something is wrong.

                                I have also priced up this game and disagree by a large margin with those odds that have been generated which probably have a small sample size which is not statistically relevant.

                                *Burnley have scored in just 1 of their 6 away Premier League games this season.
                                *Burnley have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of those 6 games.
                                From a basic point of view those are not the stats of an away team that should be at odds of 3.47.

                                Hopefully you are not testing this software with large stakes.
                                Comment
                                • nash13
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-21-14
                                  • 1122

                                  #191
                                  Originally posted by Division
                                  That analysis on Burnley gives a 172% expected value. That simply does not happen in the win-draw-win market in the most bet soccer league in the world. That should be a warning sign to you that something is wrong.

                                  I have also priced up this game and disagree by a large margin with those odds that have been generated which probably have a small sample size which is not statistically relevant.

                                  *Burnley have scored in just 1 of their 6 away Premier League games this season.
                                  *Burnley have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of those 6 games.
                                  From a basic point of view those are not the stats of an away team that should be at odds of 3.47.

                                  Hopefully you are not testing this software with large stakes.
                                  It depends on how you look at it, i started in August with this method and made about 4400 selections
                                  They are all public, pre match shared in another big betting forum




                                  after the recent drop it should be around 220/225 units.
                                  It is essential to play at biggest odds for big bookies out there.
                                  I am not saying this is the holy grail or anything, just looking if there is an angle worth considering more.
                                  i am betting this very very small atm.
                                  Comment
                                  • nash13
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-21-14
                                    • 1122

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by Division
                                    That analysis on Burnley gives a 172% expected value. That simply does not happen in the win-draw-win market in the most bet soccer league in the world. That should be a warning sign to you that something is wrong.

                                    I have also priced up this game and disagree by a large margin with those odds that have been generated which probably have a small sample size which is not statistically relevant.

                                    *Burnley have scored in just 1 of their 6 away Premier League games this season.
                                    *Burnley have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of those 6 games.
                                    From a basic point of view those are not the stats of an away team that should be at odds of 3.47.

                                    Hopefully you are not testing this software with large stakes.
                                    Oh and you are missing one key valid point i assume.
                                    The Burnley odd is only one thing i look at, what happened before when there was a misbalance like this before?
                                    This is only the photograph (172% EV). But did this really hold up? That is the key. I am not sharing everything which contains value.
                                    Comment
                                    • Stackzilla
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-26-15
                                      • 3372

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by nash13
                                      http://prntscr.com/djb8j0
                                      this is a screenshot with the goals distribution based on teams ELO and Last 5 season stats.
                                      the displayed odds are the ones that are based on the outcomes in the games in the interval of +/-75 ELO per Team
                                      West Ham 1739
                                      Burnley 1734
                                      away odd should be 3.47
                                      it is nearly 6 at some bookmakers, so this contains value for me.
                                      Little late to make a comment on this since it ended but Burnley played in Championship League last season the level of style and play are significantly different do you take that into account prior? If not this may be something to look into almost like a weighted ELO. So your +/-75 ELO for all prem teams this season and your using stats from last 5 years. Perhaps when a team gets promoted you +/-100 to that specific team for that season and when a team gets relegated you +/-25 Then maybe the ELO you would've got for Burnley may have been correct for odds. This maybe something you might want to look into in all leagues. For instance in La Liga Alaves a newly promoted team had some good results early in the season, beat Barca 34.00, draw to Atl Mad 6.00, draw to Dep la 3.00..Just something to consider I could be way off here.
                                      Last edited by Stackzilla; 12-14-16, 06:05 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • nash13
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-21-14
                                        • 1122

                                        #194
                                        Originally posted by Stackzilla
                                        Little late to make a comment on this since it ended but Burnley played in Championship League last season the level of style and play are significantly different do you take that into account prior? If not this may be something to look into almost like a weighted ELO. So your +/-75 ELO for all prem teams this season and your using stats from last 5 years. Perhaps when a team gets promoted you +/-100 to that specific team for that season and when a team gets relegated you +/-25 Then maybe the ELO you would've got for Burnley may have been correct for odds. This maybe something you might want to look into in all leagues. For instance in La Liga Alaves a newly promoted team had some good results early in the season, beat Barca 34.00, draw to Atl Mad 6.00, draw to Dep la 3.00..Just something to consider I could be way off here.
                                        Thanks for the insight. 1 little correction though. The data is for comparable Teams all over the Database not PL alone if a PL team is involved. The logic here for me: a certain balance of teams leads to comparable outcome IF and only IF the estimations for ELO and form are better than the odds display the outcome.
                                        A bigger backswing for 1 week, but it happened a lot since the beginning.

                                        bet no. country league date home away pick odd profit
                                        4330 Bulgaria Premier L 14.12.16 Lok Plovdiv Slavia Sofia Lok Plovdiv 1.60 -1
                                        4331 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Radnicki Nis Metalac Draw 4.56 +3.56
                                        4332 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vozdovac Mladost L Mladost L 5.05 -1
                                        4333 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vozdovac Mladost L Under 2.5 1.72 -1
                                        4334 Bulgaria Premier L 14.12.16 Ludogorets Cherno More Under 2.5 2.35 +1.35
                                        4335 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Radnik Red Star Radnik 10.4 -1
                                        4336 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Radnik Red Star Under 2.5 2.31 -1
                                        4337 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Javor Napredak Over 2.5 3.1 -1
                                        4338 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vojvodina Cukaricki Stankom Draw 3.72 -1
                                        4339 Serbia Super L 14.12.16 Vojvodina Cukaricki Stankom Over 2.5 2.19 -1
                                        4340 England Premier L 14.12.16 Sunderland Chelsea Chelsea 1.51 +0.51
                                        4341 England Premier L 14.12.16 Sunderland Chelsea Over 2.5 1.81 -1
                                        4342 England Premier L 14.12.16 West Ham Burnley Burnley 6.12 -1
                                        4343 England Premier L 14.12.16 Middlesbrough Liverpool Middlesbrough 6.00 -1
                                        4344 England Championship 14.12.16 Nottingham Forest Preston Nottingham Forest 2.56 -1
                                        4345 England Championship 14.12.16 Queens Park Derby Under 2.5 1.77 +0.77
                                        4346 England Championship 14.12.16 Wigan Newcastle Wigan 5.9 -1
                                        4347 Spain Segunda 14.12.16 Levante Vallecano Levante 2.13 +1.13
                                        4348 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Southampton 2.6 -1
                                        4349 England Premier L 14.12.16 Stoke Southampton Over 2.5 2.36 -1
                                        4350 England Premier L 14.12.16 Tottenham Hull Under 2.5 2.7 -1
                                        4351 England Premier L 14.12.16 Man City Watford Watford 14.0 -1
                                        4352 England Premier L 14.12.16 Man City Watford Over 2.5 1.50 -1


                                        5-18
                                        -10.68

                                        Ovr:
                                        396-444
                                        +36.61
                                        4.36% Yield

                                        The outcome is back to avg performance after the way too good start.
                                        Comment
                                        • nash13
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-21-14
                                          • 1122

                                          #195
                                          To add some insight the estimated ELO Ratings are not only based on Premier League Teams.
                                          So the situation for a comparable match in Turkey is the same as for a game in the Ukraine, Italy and Serbia.
                                          Let's take today's game of Coventry vs Sheff Utd.
                                          ELO Coventry 1220
                                          ELO Sheff 1443
                                          Form Coventry -19
                                          Form Sheff -3

                                          A ELO interval of +/- 75 and Form interval of +/- 10 gets 101 similar games in the DB

                                          if you widen the interval more games will appear, but accuracy will be less. if you decrease the gap fewer games will come up, but sample size may be not significant enough. so this is a balance act.
                                          Last edited by nash13; 12-14-16, 07:37 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • nash13
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-21-14
                                            • 1122

                                            #196
                                            bet no. country league date home away pick
                                            4353 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Beroe Gorna Oryahovitsa Beroe
                                            4354 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Beroe Gorna Oryahovitsa Over 2.5
                                            4355 Serbia Super L 15.12.16 Partizan Spartak Zlat Voda Partizan
                                            4356 Serbia Super L 15.12.16 Partizan Spartak Zlat Voda Under 2.5
                                            4357 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Plovdiv Pirin Plovdiv
                                            4358 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Plovdiv Pirin Under 2.5
                                            4359 Portugal Primeira L 15.12.16 Porto Maritimo Madeira Porto
                                            Comment
                                            • TechnicalTrader
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-09-16
                                              • 1434

                                              #197
                                              Thanks nash. It's bounceback time!
                                              Comment
                                              • nash13
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-21-14
                                                • 1122

                                                #198
                                                Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                Thanks nash. It's bounceback time!
                                                I am looking forward to the weekend. Mid week is always 50/50 for me.
                                                Comment
                                                • Division
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 05-31-16
                                                  • 150

                                                  #199
                                                  Hey Nash 4% yield is quite good considering you are betting a huge number of games but I fear that it might have been positive variance at the beginning and will correct itself soon, possibly with a negative yield overall.

                                                  Are you an owner in the website that sells this software or do you receive any financial benefit from any revenues generated from the sale of this software?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nash13
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-21-14
                                                    • 1122

                                                    #200
                                                    I know the developer from Punters Lounge Forums, i gave some insight on development. So he gave me free access for the program. I have no financial benefit from it, he offered some discount on the one time fee to people from the turkish forum i am active in. Oh and the fee for the program is a joke from my point of view. It scrapes Pinnacle Odds, Shows you every deeper stat and is very useful.
                                                    Yes the variance is def. there, in 4300 games the yield stayed steady at 4% but there was a phase from 1000-3000 where the profit stand put basically. O see this more like a live project.
                                                    Last edited by nash13; 12-15-16, 02:00 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Division
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 05-31-16
                                                      • 150

                                                      #201
                                                      Always have to try new things to try to get and keep an edge. When dealing with a 'system' like this though there is a question mark over the amount of money that the developer could make by betting his selections versus the money he can make from selling his software. Also, on the off chance that he actually is on to something then his system will be copied by other people who have more resources to offer a better product and the edge will be gone quickly. Its a tricky one. What is his punters lounge username?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • nash13
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-21-14
                                                        • 1122

                                                        #202

                                                        look here.
                                                        the purpose of the program is not being a one trick pony though.
                                                        it has various angles. the one i use is approx. 2% of the insight.

                                                        As for copying systems: the Form and ELO Formulas are hidden, i use my own estimations based on H2h too, so this is not 100% depending on this program.
                                                        Last edited by nash13; 12-16-16, 09:04 AM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TechnicalTrader
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-09-16
                                                          • 1434

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by Division
                                                          Always have to try new things to try to get and keep an edge. When dealing with a 'system' like this though there is a question mark over the amount of money that the developer could make by betting his selections versus the money he can make from selling his software. Also, on the off chance that he actually is on to something then his system will be copied by other people who have more resources to offer a better product and the edge will be gone quickly. Its a tricky one. What is his punters lounge username?

                                                          Hi Division, I am familiar with the software Nash is using and am also running a demo version of it. The developer isn't marketing/selling a system, he is simply selling a software tool which can be used to analyze data using the ELO system, or tweaked versions of the ELO. The guy who is selling it seems to be more of an IT guy and not really a gambler or tout.

                                                          Imagine a huge MS Access ELO database with a simple UI thrown on top of it. That's pretty much what it is.

                                                          I hope this helps.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TechnicalTrader
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-09-16
                                                            • 1434

                                                            #204
                                                            Division, looks like you already found the thread. Have fun and enjoy the tool. be nice to the developer, he is cool cat and is also extremely helpful!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Division
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 05-31-16
                                                              • 150

                                                              #205
                                                              I asked for a copy. I see that he has been working on it for 5 years so I'm hoping that there is something there.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • nash13
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-21-14
                                                                • 1122

                                                                #206
                                                                bet no. country league date home away pick
                                                                4360 Croatia Division 1 16.12.16 Inter Zapresic Osijek Osijek
                                                                4361 Croatia Division 1 16.12.16 Inter Zapresic Osijek Over 2.5
                                                                4362 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 1860 Munich Heidenheim 1860 Munich
                                                                4363 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Aue Dusseldorf Aue
                                                                4364 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Aue Dusseldorf Over 2.5
                                                                4365 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Union Berlin Furth Furth
                                                                4366 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Union Berlin Furth Over 2.5
                                                                4367 Germany RL West 16.12.16 Dusseldorf II RW Essen Under 2.5
                                                                4368 Germany RL Northeast 16.12.16 Nordhausen Babelsberg Draw
                                                                4369 Portugal Segunda Liga 16.12.16 Benfica B Sporting L. B Draw
                                                                4370 Spain Segunda 16.12.16 Reus Elche Elche
                                                                4371 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Sochaux Red Star Under 2.5
                                                                4372 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Le Havre Tours Le Havre
                                                                4373 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Strasbourg Chamois Chamois
                                                                4374 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Laval SC Amiens Laval
                                                                4375 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Laval SC Amiens Over 2.5
                                                                4376 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Auxerre Valenciennes Under 2.5
                                                                4377 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Ajaccio Nimes Ajaccio
                                                                4378 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Ajaccio Nimes Under 2.5
                                                                4379 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Brest Bourg Peronnas Draw
                                                                4380 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Brest Bourg Peronnas Over 2.5
                                                                4381 Netherlands Eredivisie 16.12.16 Willem II Heerenveen Willem II
                                                                4382 Netherlands Eredivisie 16.12.16 Willem II Heerenveen Over 2.5
                                                                4383 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Breda Emmen Emmen
                                                                4384 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Breda Emmen Over 2.5
                                                                4385 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Helmond Jong Ajax Amsterdam Jong Ajax Amsterdam
                                                                4386 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Helmond Jong Ajax Amsterdam Over 2.5
                                                                4387 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 De Graafschap Almere Under 2.5
                                                                4388 Italy Serie B 16.12.16 Trapani Frosinone Frosinone +0.5
                                                                4389 Italy Serie B 16.12.16 Trapani Frosinone Under 2.5
                                                                4390 England Championship 16.12.16 Norwich Huddersfield Draw
                                                                4391 England Championship 16.12.16 Norwich Huddersfield Under 2.5
                                                                4392 Spain Primera 16.12.16 Alaves Betis Balompie Draw
                                                                4393 France Ligue 1 16.12.16 Angers Nantes Nantes
                                                                4394 France Ligue 1 16.12.16 Angers Nantes Under 2.5
                                                                4395 Scotland Premier L 16.12.16 Hamilton Rangers Hamilton
                                                                4396 Portugal Primeira L 16.12.16 Ferreira Belenenses Draw
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nash13
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-21-14
                                                                  • 1122

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by Division
                                                                  I asked for a copy. I see that he has been working on it for 5 years so I'm hoping that there is something there.
                                                                  I have not tried the Rating Maker though. You can download a trial version on the website. Not with all features, but good enough to see what it is about.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • TechnicalTrader
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-09-16
                                                                    • 1434

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Just go to his site and download it. The demo version is free.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • nash13
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-21-14
                                                                      • 1122

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Finally a winning day after a horrible week.

                                                                      bet no. country league date home away pick odd profit
                                                                      4360 Croatia Division 1 16.12.16 Inter Zapresic Osijek Osijek 2.44 -1
                                                                      4361 Croatia Division 1 16.12.16 Inter Zapresic Osijek Over 2.5 2.64 +1.64
                                                                      4362 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 1860 Munich Heidenheim 1860 Munich 3.14 -1
                                                                      4363 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Aue Dusseldorf Aue 2.84 -1
                                                                      4364 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Aue Dusseldorf Over 2.5 2.22 -1
                                                                      4365 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Union Berlin Furth Furth 5.85 -1
                                                                      4366 Germany Bundesliga 2 16.12.16 Union Berlin Furth Over 2.5 1.86 -1
                                                                      4367 Germany RL West 16.12.16 Dusseldorf II RW Essen Under 2.5 1.95 -1
                                                                      4368 Germany RL Northeast 16.12.16 Nordhausen Babelsberg Draw pp pp
                                                                      4369 Portugal Segunda Liga 16.12.16 Benfica B Sporting L. B Draw 3.8 +2.8
                                                                      4370 Spain Segunda 16.12.16 Reus Elche Elche 4.2 +3.2
                                                                      4371 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Sochaux Red Star Under 2.5 1.58 +0.58
                                                                      4372 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Le Havre Tours Le Havre 2.0 -1
                                                                      4373 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Strasbourg Chamois Chamois 6.2 -1
                                                                      4374 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Laval SC Amiens Laval 3.01 -1
                                                                      4375 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Laval SC Amiens Over 2.5 2.94 +1.94
                                                                      4376 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Auxerre Valenciennes Under 2.5 1.69 +0.69
                                                                      4377 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Ajaccio Nimes Ajaccio 2.4 -1
                                                                      4378 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Ajaccio Nimes Under 2.5 1.8 -1
                                                                      4379 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Brest Bourg Peronnas Draw 3.6 +2.6
                                                                      4380 France Ligue 2 16.12.16 Brest Bourg Peronnas Over 2.5 2.11 -1
                                                                      4381 Netherlands Eredivisie 16.12.16 Willem II Heerenveen Willem II 3.0 +2.0
                                                                      4382 Netherlands Eredivisie 16.12.16 Willem II Heerenveen Over 2.5 1.98 +0.98
                                                                      4383 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Breda Emmen Emmen 5.05 -1
                                                                      4384 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Breda Emmen Over 2.5 1.64 +0.64
                                                                      4385 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Helmond Jong Ajax Amsterdam Jong Ajax Amsterdam 3.82 +2.82
                                                                      4386 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 Helmond Jong Ajax Amsterdam Over 2.5 1.66 +0.66
                                                                      4387 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 16.12.16 De Graafschap Almere Under 2.5 3.06 -1
                                                                      4388 Italy Serie B 16.12.16 Trapani Frosinone Frosinone +0.5 1.62 +0.62
                                                                      4389 Italy Serie B 16.12.16 Trapani Frosinone Under 2.5 1.72 -1
                                                                      4390 England Championship 16.12.16 Norwich Huddersfield Draw 3.75 -1
                                                                      4391 England Championship 16.12.16 Norwich Huddersfield Under 2.5 2.05 -1
                                                                      4392 Spain Primera 16.12.16 Alaves Betis Balompie Draw 3.35 -1
                                                                      4393 France Ligue 1 16.12.16 Angers Nantes Nantes 3.72 +2.72
                                                                      4394 France Ligue 1 16.12.16 Angers Nantes Under 2.5 1.55 +0.55
                                                                      4395 Scotland Premier L 16.12.16 Hamilton Rangers Hamilton 6.34 -1
                                                                      4396 Portugal Primeira L 16.12.16 Ferreira Belenenses Draw 3.15 -1
                                                                      15-21
                                                                      +3.44

                                                                      bet no. country league date home away pick odd profit
                                                                      4353 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Beroe Gorna Oryahovitsa Beroe 1.61 -1
                                                                      4354 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Beroe Gorna Oryahovitsa Over 2.5 2.48 -1
                                                                      4355 Serbia Super L 15.12.16 Partizan Spartak Zlat Voda Partizan 1.48 +0.48
                                                                      4356 Serbia Super L 15.12.16 Partizan Spartak Zlat Voda Under 2.5 2.09 +1.09
                                                                      4357 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Plovdiv Pirin Plovdiv 1.92 +0.92
                                                                      4358 Bulgaria Premier L 15.12.16 Plovdiv Pirin Under 2.5 1.91 -1
                                                                      4359 Portugal Primeira L 15.12.16 Porto Maritimo Madeira Porto 1.25 +0.25


                                                                      4-3
                                                                      -0.26

                                                                      Ovr:
                                                                      415-468
                                                                      +39.79
                                                                      4.51% Yield
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • nash13
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-21-14
                                                                        • 1122

                                                                        #210
                                                                        bet no. country league date home away pick
                                                                        4397 Portugal Segunda Liga 17.12.16 Portimonense Freamunde Under 2.5
                                                                        4398 Spain Primera 17.12.16 Gijon Villarreal Under 2.5
                                                                        4399 Germany Bundesliga 2 17.12.16 Karlsruhe Braunschweig Karlsruhe
                                                                        4400 Germany Bundesliga 2 17.12.16 St. Pauli Bochum St. Pauli +0.5
                                                                        4401 Germany RL North 17.12.16 St. Pauli II Hamburg II St. Pauli II
                                                                        4402 Germany RL North 17.12.16 St. Pauli II Hamburg II Over 2.5
                                                                        4403 Germany 3rd League 17.12.16 Aalen Werder II Draw
                                                                        4404 Turkey Super Lig 17.12.16 Basaksehir Trabzonspor Trabzonspor
                                                                        4405 Turkey Super Lig 17.12.16 Basaksehir Trabzonspor Over 2.5
                                                                        4406 Italy Serie B 17.12.16 Ternana Vicenza Under 2.5
                                                                        4407 Italy Serie B 17.12.16 Pro Vercelli Spal Draw
                                                                        4408 Italy Serie B 17.12.16 Bari 1908 Avellino Bari 1908
                                                                        4409 Italy Serie B 17.12.16 Cittadella Pisa Cittadella
                                                                        4410 Italy Serie B 17.12.16 Cittadella Pisa Over 2.5
                                                                        4411 Croatia Division 1 17.12.16 Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb Draw
                                                                        4412 Croatia Division 1 17.12.16 Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb Under 2.5
                                                                        4413 Germany Bundesliga 17.12.16 Bremen Cologne Bremen
                                                                        4414 Germany Bundesliga 17.12.16 Augsburg M'gladbach Over 2.5
                                                                        4415 Germany Bundesliga 17.12.16 Schalke 04 Freiburg Under 2.5
                                                                        4416 Germany Bundesliga 17.12.16 Mainz 05 Hamburg Mainz 05 +0.5
                                                                        4417 Germany Bundesliga 17.12.16 Mainz 05 Hamburg Under 2.5
                                                                        4418 Poland Ekstraklasa 17.12.16 Korona Kielce KS Lechia Korona Kielce
                                                                        4419 Wales Premier L 17.12.16 Newtown Cardiff Met Newtown
                                                                        4420 Wales Premier L 17.12.16 Bangor Airbus UK Over 2.5
                                                                        4421 England Premier L 17.12.16 West Ham Hull Over 2.5
                                                                        4422 England Premier L 17.12.16 Sunderland Watford Draw
                                                                        4423 England Premier L 17.12.16 Middlesbrough Swansea Draw
                                                                        4424 England Premier L 17.12.16 Middlesbrough Swansea Under 2.5
                                                                        4425 England Championship 17.12.16 Blackburn Reading Over 2.5
                                                                        4426 England Championship 17.12.16 Fulham Derby Draw
                                                                        4427 England Championship 17.12.16 Fulham Derby Under 2.5
                                                                        4428 England Championship 17.12.16 Bristol City Preston Bristol City
                                                                        4429 England Championship 17.12.16 Cardiff Barnsley Draw
                                                                        4430 England League One 17.12.16 Northampton Rochdale Over 2.5
                                                                        4431 England League One 17.12.16 Gillingham MK Dons Over 2.5
                                                                        4432 England League Two 17.12.16 Exeter Mansfield Exeter
                                                                        4433 England League Two 17.12.16 Morecambe Cheltenham Under 2.5
                                                                        4434 England League Two 17.12.16 Blackpool Luton Luton
                                                                        4435 England League Two 17.12.16 Carlisle Yeovil Carlisle
                                                                        4436 England League Two 17.12.16 Carlisle Yeovil Over 2.5
                                                                        4437 England Conference 17.12.16 Sutton Wrexham Wrexham +0.5
                                                                        4438 England Conference 17.12.16 Sutton Wrexham Under 2.5
                                                                        4439 England Conference 17.12.16 Gateshead Braintree Over 2.5
                                                                        4440 Austria Bundesliga 17.12.16 Ried Sturm Graz Ried
                                                                        4441 Portugal Segunda Liga 17.12.16 Cova Piedade Vizela Cova Piedade
                                                                        4442 Scotland Premier L 17.12.16 Johnstone Motherwell Over 2.5
                                                                        4443 Scotland Premier L 17.12.16 Kilmarnock Inverness CT Kilmarnock +0.5
                                                                        4444 Scotland Premier L 17.12.16 Celtic Dundee Under 2.5
                                                                        4445 Scotland Premier L 17.12.16 Ross County Aberdeen Ross County
                                                                        4446 Portugal Segunda Liga 17.12.16 Famalicao Varzim Draw
                                                                        4447 Croatia Division 1 17.12.16 Rijeka Istra 1961 Rijeka
                                                                        4448 Italy Serie A 17.12.16 Milan Atalanta Milan
                                                                        4449 Spain Segunda 17.12.16 Oviedo Cordoba Draw
                                                                        4450 Spain Segunda 17.12.16 Lugo Huesca Draw
                                                                        4451 Spain Segunda 17.12.16 Tenerife Alcorcon Draw
                                                                        4452 Belgium Pro League 17.12.16 Oostende Zulte Oostende
                                                                        4453 Belgium Pro League 17.12.16 Oostende Zulte Over 2.5
                                                                        4454 England Premier L 17.12.16 West Bromwich Man Utd Man Utd
                                                                        4455 England Premier L 17.12.16 West Bromwich Man Utd Over 2.5
                                                                        4456 England Championship 17.12.16 Birmingham Brighton Birmingham
                                                                        4457 Germany Bundesliga 17.12.16 Wolfsburg E. Frankfurt Over 2.5
                                                                        4458 Austria Bundesliga 17.12.16 Salzburg Wolfsberg Salzburg
                                                                        4459 Austria Bundesliga 17.12.16 Salzburg Wolfsberg Over 2.5
                                                                        4460 Austria Bundesliga 17.12.16 Austria Vienna Mattersburg Austria Vienna
                                                                        4461 Netherlands Eredivisie 17.12.16 Roda Utrecht Draw
                                                                        4462 Netherlands Eredivisie 17.12.16 Roda Utrecht Under 2.5
                                                                        4463 Netherlands Eredivisie 17.12.16 Feyenoord Vitesse Feyenoord
                                                                        4464 Spain Segunda 17.12.16 Girona Gimnastic Girona
                                                                        4465 France Ligue 1 17.12.16 Caen Metz Under 2.5
                                                                        4466 France Ligue 1 17.12.16 Toulouse Nancy Under 2.5
                                                                        4467 France Ligue 1 17.12.16 Montpellier Bordeaux Under 2.5
                                                                        4468 Belgium Pro League 17.12.16 Westerlo Lokeren Westerlo
                                                                        4469 Belgium Pro League 17.12.16 KV Mechelen Waasland Under 2.5
                                                                        4470 Belgium Pro League 17.12.16 St. Truiden KAA Gent St. Truiden
                                                                        4471 Italy Serie A 17.12.16 Juventus Roma Juventus
                                                                        4472 Netherlands Eredivisie 17.12.16 Twente Alkmaar Draw
                                                                        4473 Netherlands Eredivisie 17.12.16 Twente Alkmaar Over 2.5
                                                                        4474 Portugal Primeira L 17.12.16 Estoril Benfica Benfica
                                                                        4475 Portugal Primeira L 17.12.16 Estoril Benfica Over 2.5
                                                                        Comment
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