Weekend Thread, Let's See If I Can Make You And I Some $$

[plekz]

sundsvall's style isn't to play 10man defense, they've struggled though since they sold the goalscoring players they had. like dibba.

[Stackzilla]

Yea they sold Dibba and they brought in Enarsson a bench player from Norr. I cap games using stats and videos on games, stats show that Sundsvall on away matches they spend 22% in the opposition's 3rd, 41% middle third, and 37% in their own third. Oerebro has similar numbers when playing at home my take on those numbers would be a midfield battle type of game. Although Oerebro has 10 goals in open play at home and Sundsvall has conceded 15 away in open play so it's fair to say it may be a open game and the opposite of that Sundsvall has scored 9 open play goals and Oerebro has conceded 11 in open play. Oerebro on avg concedes 1.6 goals a match and Sundsvall scores 1.1 goals a match overall taking into consideration their recent form I'd say most of those goals came from Dibba in the early season. The opposite of that Oerebro avg 1.6 goals a match and Sundsvall concedes avg 2 goals a match. Taking all the stats and video I've watched u3 is a good bet here I'm thinking the match may end 1-0,2-0 Oerebro but as you can see I'm not perfect I thought Spartak/Orenburg wouldn't be such a blow-out match and it ended 1-3. Thank you for the input.

Edit: All stats are home team stats and away team stats not overall .

[NYRin09]

Yea they sold Dibba and they brought in Enarsson a bench player from Norr. I cap games using stats and videos on games, stats show that Sundsvall on away matches they spend 22% in the opposition's 3rd, 41% middle third, and 37% in their own third. Oerebro has similar numbers when playing at home my take on those numbers would be a midfield battle type of game. Although Oerebro has 10 goals in open play at home and Sundsvall has conceded 15 away in open play so it's fair to say it may be a open game and the opposite of that Sundsvall has scored 9 open play goals and Oerebro has conceded 11 in open play. Oerebro on avg concedes 1.6 goals a match and Sundsvall scores 1.1 goals a match overall taking into consideration their recent form I'd say most of those goals came from Dibba in the early season. The opposite of that Oerebro avg 1.6 goals a match and Sundsvall concedes avg 2 goals a match. Taking all the stats and video I've watched u3 is a good bet here I'm thinking the match may end 1-0,2-0 Oerebro but as you can see I'm not perfect I thought Spartak/Orenburg wouldn't be such a blow-out match and it ended 1-3. Thank you for the input.

Edit: All stats are home team stats and away team stats not overall .

seems like you may believe Orebro to be a better play than the under?

[Stackzilla]

It's got some juice to it at -156 but it's def playable at -1 +107 which now that I'm thinking about it it may be a great play. Gonna see line-ups and I might have a play on it.

[Stackzilla]

Not quite sold on the starting 11 with Ajdarevic and Sema on the bench to start. Sundsvall starting 11 isn't stacked but it isn't horrible either.

[Stackzilla]

Russia Premier League

Spartak/Oreburg u2 +105

Orenburg is a tough team at home and defense oriented, Spartak has been playing very well this season but none of their matches have gone over 2 this season and the trend will continue today. Orenburg at home has 15 yellow cards and 2 reds their aggressive play will slow down the tempo of this match in their favor. Spartak will more than likely own at the offensive stats here they avg 12 shots in away matches this season. We shouldn't see a push today. 0-1, 0-0 FT

Bad call here, underestimated Spartak and overestimated Orenburg.

[intermission]

I like Orebro but the line keep falling so im pretty scared lol...might still play them anyway

[Stackzilla]

I'm only playing the u3 it's tempting tho I do like them to win but I think the u3 is safer. If anything wait for 5mins to KO sometimes you might see sharp $$ coming in. It's pretty much moving to what it opened at.

[Stackzilla]

1-1

[Stackzilla]

2-1 horrible slimpy horrible read by me...staying away from unders

[chuda]

one time i don`t play my my usual btts and 1x2 .... orebro 2 - 1 ... bochum 3 -3 ...

[ATLIEN6]

Was on some of these same plays Stack, hope you dont mind me throwing down some plays in here but today i like a couple, some may be worth checking into...

Everyones on the o2.5 in Chelsea/LPC which i also like, but was also thinking about potentially throwing some small change on the draw(+252) or correct score 2:2(+1085 on 5dimes), great odds there.

Cork City -1 (-130) or play it safe with the ML -222, throw it in a parlay
Cork City o2 -163
Bohemians/Galway o2 -138
Derry City ML -136
UC Dublin ML -136

Also i havent really been a big fan of PSG lately cause they have been playing screwy IMO but if you need a parlay filler i might just toss ML/-1 into a parlay if your looking for something

[chuda]

i will go for a goalgalore in chelski game as well ...

i am thinking maybe caen +1 ...they are good at home... PSG after midweek disappointment... shouldn`t walk over caen ? or btts could be shot

[Stackzilla]

It's cool bro I got 2 plays left today and that's it. There wasn't many matches I liked hope fully I can win these last 2 and come out + on the day. I haven't been keeping up with the Irish league I like the Derry City play tho and you got a good line I'm at -149 and -154. I got afternoon plans then back at it tomo BOL.

[Stackzilla]

one time i don`t play my my usual btts and 1x2 .... orebro 2 - 1 ... bochum 3 -3 ...

Yea I just hope the day ends well for us both.

[Stackzilla]

i will go for a goalgalore in chelski game as well ...

i am thinking maybe caen +1 ...they are good at home... PSG after midweek disappointment... shouldn`t walk over caen ? or btts could be shot

Gotta think about the CL hangovers. BOL on what you decide, I haven't done much research into Ligue 1 I've only really looked at Ligue 2 and that was because all those draws that were happening a few weeks ago.

[ATLIEN6]

Stack tell me this.. When you see alot of people on the same over in a game, we'll just say this Chelsea/LPC o2.5, everyones on it, i see the juice rising and rising, but when it doesnt cross over into the 2.5,3 or just straight up 3. Does that ever worry you? For me i feel like thats the books way of getting everyone to pound a # they dont think will happen, other wise why wouldnt they bump it up to 3?

Sorry if that doesnt make sense im not good at explaining shit sometimes

[chuda]

Chelsea: Courtois; Ivanovic (c), Cahill, David Luiz, Azpi; Kante; Willian, Oscar, Matic, Hazard; Costa.

Subs: Begovic, Alonso, Fabregas, Pedro, Moses, Batshuayi, Aina.

Liverpool: Mignolet, Clyne, Matip, Lovren, Milner, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Lallana, Coutinho, Mane, Sturridge.

Subs: Karius, Lucas, Stewart, Origi, Moreno, Grujic, Ejaria.

...i am on chelski...

[Stackzilla]

Stack tell me this.. When you see alot of people on the same over in a game, we'll just say this Chelsea/LPC o2.5, everyones on it, i see the juice rising and rising, but when it doesnt cross over into the 2.5,3 or just straight up 3. Does that ever worry you? For me i feel like thats the books way of getting everyone to pound a # they dont think will happen, other wise why wouldnt they bump it up to 3?

Sorry if that doesnt make sense im not good at explaining shit sometimes

Sometimes it does but I usually stay firm with the play and usually you won't see a match move jump to o/u3 on matchday but you will see a match go from o/u3 jump to o/u2.5 I saw that happen just last week. Most of the time if you see the closing line it's similar to what it opened at. You want to look at sharp books like Pinnacle or bet365 lines for instance the oerebro/sundsvall opened at pinnacle opened -159 closed -154 o2.5 and their o3 line opened at +102 closed +106 not much difference. It's weird 1 week I tell myself don't line watch and the next I'm back to doing it. There are some good instances in line watching especially in the big games if you wait 5mins before a bug game most of the time you'll see some big moves from sharps and thats when you jump. I use 2 books 1 is a sharp and the other a square book if I'm line watching a game and see significant movement I got to my square book and usually they havent caught up with the movement and i can catch a few extra bucks if I win. I'm going way off course...Books win regardless of the o/u because there's always people going opposite of the public...Don't put too much thought into it.

[Stackzilla]

Chelsea: Courtois; Ivanovic (c), Cahill, David Luiz, Azpi; Kante; Willian, Oscar, Matic, Hazard; Costa.

Subs: Begovic, Alonso, Fabregas, Pedro, Moses, Batshuayi, Aina.

Liverpool: Mignolet, Clyne, Matip, Lovren, Milner, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Lallana, Coutinho, Mane, Sturridge.

Subs: Karius, Lucas, Stewart, Origi, Moreno, Grujic, Ejaria.

...i am on chelski...

Agreed, didn't think Cahill would get the start after what he said about the refs but I'm In.

[Stackzilla]

Chels +113

[ATLIEN6]

Sometimes it does but I usually stay firm with the play and usually you won't see a match move jump to o/u3 on matchday but you will see a match go from o/u3 jump to o/u2.5 I saw that happen just last week. Most of the time if you see the closing line it's similar to what it opened at. You want to look at sharp books like Pinnacle or bet365 lines for instance the oerebro/sundsvall opened at pinnacle opened -159 closed -154 o2.5 and their o3 line opened at +102 closed +106 not much difference. It's weird 1 week I tell myself don't line watch and the next I'm back to doing it. There are some good instances in line watching especially in the big games if you wait 5mins before a bug game most of the time you'll see some big moves from sharps and thats when you jump. I use 2 books 1 is a sharp and the other a square book if I'm line watching a game and see significant movement I got to my square book and usually they havent caught up with the movement and i can catch a few extra bucks if I win. I'm going way off course...Books win regardless of the o/u because there's always people going opposite of the public...Don't put too much thought into it.

Its all one big mindfukk in the end lol. I do the same with the sharp/square book granted i use 5dimes and heritage which both seem pretty sharp to me but ive caught them slipping occasionally. Lets just hope this over hits, ive caught some bad beats recently....(Juventus not scoring at all???, Young boys game only putting up 1 goal??? list goes on and on)

[chuda]

chelski just useless today...

[Stackzilla]

Still early, their D isn't playing well without Terry and Luiz is still new to the team. You saw when he waited for the Courtois to come out and he had to kick it out of play, they're not playing as a line once they settle in the D will be solid. That 2nd goal was perfection....just perfect shot..

[chuda]

i will go for a goalgalore in chelski game as well ...

i am thinking maybe caen +1 ...they are good at home... PSG after midweek disappointment... shouldn`t walk over caen ? or btts could be shot

not even close... should of just play simple overs

[Stackzilla]

Yea same here, had a few leans on teams I passed on and even they lost usually my leans are winners lol another big weekend. BOL

[Stackzilla]

Everton/Middlesborough Draw/Everton +360

[Stackzilla]

Gonna post my BTP picks been kinda busy this morning and didnt have time to post my picks today had Man U -1 and that turned out horrible and I got Juventus going right now. Might play Real going to wait for line-ups.

Pats -6.5 -110 x2
Sea -3.5 -105 Got this early it's -6 now
Detroit -6 -108
Oakland -4.5 -105
Lost my college pick so I'm 3-3 +.72 right now

[Stackzilla]

Real -1.5 +113

[Stackzilla]

Got buried in BTP 1-4 but hit my x2 .. nice win with Real -1.5. Been watching football since 1 haven't looked into tomorrow's matches. May take the day off or light day.

[Stackzilla]

Fenerbahce -1 +108
Fenerbahce -145 x2
Fenerbahce/Kasimpasa o2.5 -112
Zenit -1 -130
Zlin +.5 +110 x.5

[Stackzilla]

Wexford +.5 +103 .5

[Stackzilla]

Benefica/Braga o2.5 -114
Almost want to take Braga +1 here but I'm gonna to pass

[Stackzilla]

Fenerbahce -1 +108 W
Fenerbahce -145 x2 W
Fenerbahce/Kasimpasa o2.5 -112 W
Zenit -1 -130 W
Zlin +.5 +110 x.5 W

So much for taking the day off..

[16johnnymac]

Benefica/Braga o2.5 -114
Almost want to take Braga +1 here but I'm gonna to pass

Did my homework on over 2 1/2 over been/brag based on what i reviewed we should see a late goal to hit over but watching game and we will need a few extra 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻