Degenerate J-League action

[QuantumLeap]

royhobbs and cryptocap have inspired me to look into the J-League for some Japanese soccer action and also because I'm a degenerate looking for action.

Omiya Ardija PK -114 over Albirex Niigata
Albirex have lost 4 matches in a row and have 8 road matches in the league. Why are they a PK here?



Omiya have only lost once in their last 11 home matches.

[QuantumLeap]

Sanfrecce Hiroshima/Vissel Kobe over 3 -111
Both teams have been scoring wildly. Only 1 of Hiroshima's last 5 matches have ended in a total of 3 with the other 4 going over. Kobe has only had 1 total of 2 goals while the previous 5 matches have all been 3 or more.

[killer chipmunks]

Kawasaki Frontale -121

[ATLIEN6]

Early games....


ICC - 5 am est
JUVENTUS -1

J-LEAGUE
Yokohama ML
Hiroshima o3

CHINA
Shanghai o2.75

FINLAND
SJK ML

TENNIS - ATP
Mathieu ML -145

TENNIS - WTA
Larsson ML -160

[QuantumLeap]

royhobbs and cryptocap have inspired me to look into the J-League for some Japanese soccer action and also because I'm a degenerate looking for action.

Omiya Ardija PK -114 over Albirex Niigata
Albirex have lost 4 matches in a row and have 8 road matches in the league. Why are they a PK here?



Omiya have only lost once in their last 11 home matches.

Loss.

Albirex 2, Omiya 1.

[QuantumLeap]

Sanfrecce Hiroshima/Vissel Kobe over 3 -111
Both teams have been scoring wildly. Only 1 of Hiroshima's last 5 matches have ended in a total of 3 with the other 4 going over. Kobe has only had 1 total of 2 goals while the previous 5 matches have all been 3 or more.

Loss.

Hiroshima 2, Kobe 0.

[cryptocap]

Did you take Vegalta!?

[QuantumLeap]

Did you take Vegalta!?

No. I saw where you said you were liking them but that you also said you wait until a couple days before the match goes off before making your decision. I didn't realize you were posting 2 days ahead of the match. I thought it may be farther out and you might change your mind.



Nice call by the way. I'll look for more of your picks. Thanks for the pick.

[killer chipmunks]

Kawasaki Frontale -121 WINN

[cryptocap]

I love the name of this thread so I will post here...

Consadole Sapporo vs Gifu: The Hot vs The Cold

These teams played mid week with Sapporo beating a promotion rival and Gifu losing to a relegation rival...
Both teams are on completely different trajectories with Gifu struggling to stay in the J2 for consecutive seasons and Consadole bringing in some Brazilian talent for a push to J1.

Consadole sit top with 50 pts and 2 games in hand after 23 games. They are not quite the Gamba or Shonan in terms of J2 scoring but they are getting results especially at home where they are undefeated in the league.

However, Gifu have lost their last 5 by 1 goal only while dominating possession! Which is why Consadole is sitting @ 1.50 for a home victory. Relative value there and on the under @ 1.70 but what is the angle for this match.

A low scoring victory for Consadole? HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME @2.30?

I will post a final pick(s) when the lineup is revealed...I expect the odds to drop drastically if the talisman Tokura is announced a starter...I am weary about relegation dogs...These guys are at risk of falling into a borderline professional league.

Right now my leans are on Consadole to have enough for a victory and the OVER 2.5 @1.90

9 of the last 10 games for Consadole have had 1 goal or less and only 4 of Gifu last 10 have been over.

I think there is value in the over in that Gifu could surprise the books and find a goal here. Conversely, Consadole could easily blow them out with a week of rest to look forward to.

[QuantumLeap]

Kawasaki Frontale -121 WINN

Sorry, I forgot to mention your post. Nice pick!



Thanks for posting.

[QuantumLeap]

I love the name of this thread so I will post here...

Consadole Sapporo vs Gifu: The Hot vs The Cold

These teams played mid week with Sapporo beating a promotion rival and Gifu losing to a relegation rival...
Both teams are on completely different trajectories with Gifu struggling to stay in the J2 for consecutive seasons and Consadole bringing in some Brazilian talent for a push to J1.

Consadole sit top with 50 pts and 2 games in hand after 23 games. They are not quite the Gamba or Shonan in terms of J2 scoring but they are getting results especially at home where they are undefeated in the league.

However, Gifu have lost their last 5 by 1 goal only while dominating possession! Which is why Consadole is sitting @ 1.50 for a home victory. Relative value there and on the under @ 1.70 but what is the angle for this match.

A low scoring victory for Consadole? HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME @2.30?

I will post a final pick(s) when the lineup is revealed...I expect the odds to drop drastically if the talisman Tokura is announced a starter...I am weary about relegation dogs...These guys are at risk of falling into a borderline professional league.

Right now my leans are on Consadole to have enough for a victory and the OVER 2.5 @1.90

9 of the last 10 games for Consadole have had 1 goal or less and only 4 of Gifu last 10 have been over.

I think there is value in the over in that Gifu could surprise the books and find a goal here. Conversely, Consadole could easily blow them out with a week of rest to look forward to.

Some people don't like other people posting in their threads. I think it's great other people post here. The more the merrier.

Thanks for posting. I look forward to your future posts.

[cryptocap]

J-League writers are hyping Gifu to give a determined effort tonight...They supposedly fired their technical director and the emotions surrounding the match suggest Consadole will be in for a fight...Official Picks will be in when lineup is announced...

[cryptocap]

Consadole are starting their very capable front 3 attackers with some fringe midfielders/defenders that won a deserving result last match...3-4-3 (Jonathan missing along with Fukai)

Gifu starting in a 4-5-1 with most of their Japanese faithful but a few changes from last match which could be down to interim coach rewarding these players in an alteration of tactics...

I still believe Consadole have enough quality to win the match but it will not be easy...They seem to be going for it with the formation though


Consadole to WIN @1.50

Over 2.5 @1.90 ( IF Gifu can strike this may push the total)

FC Gifu +1 @ Halftime spread 1.58

[cryptocap]

I am angling that Consadole will take awhile to settle and may end the half up 1 or at a draw...only to wear them down as the match continues finding the net....Gifu will fight till the end and push. Lets hope this bozo new goalie makes no mistakes

[cryptocap]

Holy penetrate odds are rising...Sharps on Gifu

[cryptocap]

looks like we cash boys@!!!!

[shadymcgrady]

5-0. Nice call crypto

[QuantumLeap]

Consadole are starting their very capable front 3 attackers with some fringe midfielders/defenders that won a deserving result last match...3-4-3 (Jonathan missing along with Fukai)

Gifu starting in a 4-5-1 with most of their Japanese faithful but a few changes from last match which could be down to interim coach rewarding these players in an alteration of tactics...

I still believe Consadole have enough quality to win the match but it will not be easy...They seem to be going for it with the formation though


Consadole to WIN @1.50

Over 2.5 @1.90 ( IF Gifu can strike this may push the total)

FC Gifu +1 @ Halftime spread 1.58

Nice calls!

I wasn't awake to get your picks but I went with Consadole anyway just to fade Gifu based upon your previous fade. I can't take credit for this since I didn't post it.

[cryptocap]

No worries mate...its about winning money not the credit!

[cryptocap]

Working on a lean for the Chinese FA Cup - Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2nd Leg - Guangzhou Evergrande FC leads 2-1

[QuantumLeap]

Working on a lean for the Chinese FA Cup - Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2nd Leg - Guangzhou Evergrande FC leads 2-1

I see it's Guangzhou at -0.5 +103 at the moment. It goes off at 7:35am Eastern.

Who are you leaning toward in this match?

[shadymcgrady]

I've had people from China tell me the soccer games are fixed from time to time over there. Military officers and government officials using agency funds obtained illegally to bet on the fixed matches. Usually it works out but when it doesn't suicide is the preferred out. Strange culture in that the nature of fixing is accepted there like how ship owners accept pirating.

Regardless of such stories let's hear the good word crypto

[cryptocap]

Not one for total conspiracy but I believe the last loss in the Guangzhou derby was 'fixed' that is to say controlled...Evergrande was out of sorts as their attacking stars were supplemented by a starting XI and bench composed of novice players...Scolari was at least experimenting or rewarding some players with minutes as they tighten their grip on another super league title (6th in a row).

Guangzhou should be rested and only have a 1 goal advantage from the home leg...Gao Lin missed a penalty in an utterly dominant performance that should have been 4 or 5 if not for some excellent defensive effort. With the league title almost secure. Scolari will be pressured to win the FA Cup in place of their premature champions league exit...I expect him to field a side more than capable of beating Beijing but that is not to say it goes deeper. Guangzhou are away again on Saturday making that 4 in a row. The team has been experimental on this trip so I think he reforms the squad in this important match. Pick when I can dig through this damn chinese blocked media...Leaning Guangzhou ML @2.oo right now

[QuantumLeap]

I've had people from China tell me the soccer games are fixed from time to time over there. Military officers and government officials using agency funds obtained illegally to bet on the fixed matches. Usually it works out but when it doesn't suicide is the preferred out. Strange culture in that the nature of fixing is accepted there like how ship owners accept pirating.

Regardless of such stories let's hear the good word crypto

I know first-hand accounts from a friend of mine who just bets fixed games. He has a group of people who are able to get these. He's been doing it for years.

I use to watch the lines of soccer matches at The Greek. When they would go from ML -110 to ML -250 in a short amount of time you could tell there was a lot of money being bet. For some reason The Greek would continue taking these bets. I would guess 80% - 90% of them would win.

I used to look for a Don Best of soccer so I could get alerted to these. I finally found software out there that publishes lines like this but they limit their customers to sports books. That would tell me that this was a valid way for bettors to win and that's why they wouldn't sell it to bettors.

Speaking of pirates, I also have a former coworker who used to own a scuba diving business in Phuket, Thailand. He told me he would have to pay off the local mafia there like it was a normal thing. It wasn't much.

[QuantumLeap]

Not one for total conspiracy but I believe the last loss in the Guangzhou derby was 'fixed' that is to say controlled...Evergrande was out of sorts as their attacking stars were supplemented by a starting XI and bench composed of novice players...Scolari was at least experimenting or rewarding some players with minutes as they tighten their grip on another super league title (6th in a row).

Guangzhou should be rested and only have a 1 goal advantage from the home leg...Gao Lin missed a penalty in an utterly dominant performance that should have been 4 or 5 if not for some excellent defensive effort. With the league title almost secure. Scolari will be pressured to win the FA Cup in place of their premature champions league exit...I expect him to field a side more than capable of beating Beijing but that is not to say it goes deeper. Guangzhou are away again on Saturday making that 4 in a row. The team has been experimental on this trip so I think he reforms the squad in this important match. Pick when I can dig through this damn chinese blocked media...Leaning Guangzhou ML @2.oo right now

Perhaps Scolari was resting players in their last loss, only their second of the season. I like your angle that he will be pressured to win the FA Cup after failing to advance in the CL. The President of China has said he wants a Chinese team to win the World Cup so that country has been spending good money to get the experience. I'm also reading where Guangzhou is worth more than Man Utd but it's hard to tell because so much investment isn't public in China.

I think I'm going to put a little on Guangzhou "Katniss" Evergrande since I'm going to bed in a couple hours.

[cryptocap]

They arnt even releasing the lineups, no feeds and half of the live scores arnt even following the match...1-0 Guoan i think...34th minute...2 coming from Zhou boys after half...total fix

[cryptocap]

1-1

[shadymcgrady]

I can't see live updates on my apps. The shady peoples communist of china. The lines for this game were moving on everything from both teams to the tie and the totals leading up to the game. Impossible to gage a game that's fixed without knowledge of. Regardless of this bush league chinese soccer outcome keep doing ya thing crypto

[cryptocap]

No doubt this is goddamn ridiculous...Lets hope they snag a win and lets move on from this pathetic experience.

[shadymcgrady]

I know first-hand accounts from a friend of mine who just bets fixed games. He has a group of people who are able to get these. He's been doing it for years.

I use to watch the lines of soccer matches at The Greek. When they would go from ML -110 to ML -250 in a short amount of time you could tell there was a lot of money being bet. For some reason The Greek would continue taking these bets. I would guess 80% - 90% of them would win.

I used to look for a Don Best of soccer so I could get alerted to these. I finally found software out there that publishes lines like this but they limit their customers to sports books. That would tell me that this was a valid way for bettors to win and that's why they wouldn't sell it to bettors.

Speaking of pirates, I also have a former coworker who used to own a scuba diving business in Phuket, Thailand. He told me he would have to pay off the local mafia there like it was a normal thing. It wasn't much.

Wouldn't it be nice to have the inside scoop on the games before kickoff? We could all quit our day jobs and put the crap in handicrappers

[cryptocap]

2-1 Guangzhou... they even posted a stream

http://live.robinwidget.com/livesportmatches/free-live-video-streaming-beijing-guoan-guangzhou-evergrande-football-362365.html

LETS GO!

[shadymcgrady]

The halftime speech for Guangzhou was the team captain with a tsingtao beer in his hand and a cigarette in the other. Probably sounded like the high pitch Russell Peters mocking Chinese accent. "When you see the ball coming. .. somefing going down!"

[cryptocap]

Congrats boys we did it...Guangzhou pulls off the victory!

[shadymcgrady]

Nice call once again crypto. I know u did a write up on every UEFA qualification match today but are there any that stand out to you in terms of strong play or plays or they all equal?