Scandinavian SoccerSummer

[QuantumLeap]

I've been following Scandinavian soccer this summer since other sports are slow (except baseball of course). I don't like the grind of baseball so I enjoy watching the Scando market on Fridays and weekends.

I've found the lines to be a bit soft, especially in this sometimes high-scoring league. The linesmakers also value the home team quite a bit so I tend to look at the bottom teams when they are at home and fade them.

[QuantumLeap]

Sogndal +0.5 -118 over Vålerenga

This is a good example of a home team being favored by too much. Here is a summary of each team's recent performances and why I am making this bet.

Vålerenga (home)
This team has won only 3 matches in the Norwegian Eliteserien league. They were all 3 at home which is why I think they are getting all the love here. However, their last 2 home matches resulted in losses. They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and sit one spot from last place in the league.

Sogndal (away)
This team has not lost in their last 8 matches including 2 wins in their last road matches. Their previous 2 road losses were to the 2nd place and 3rd place teams.

[QuantumLeap]

Just wanted to mention that the Norwegian Eliteserien League (Elite Series) is also known as the Tippeligaen (top league).

I wanted to point out a match from last week that lead me to bet this Sogndal match. I was watching it earlier in the week but forgot about it when it played last Friday.

Bodø/Glimt was PK +105 playing on the road against Start. Start had not won in 14 matches so why were they at PK? Probably because they were at home (I'm guessing). Bodø/Glimt had won 2 of their last 4 and lost the other 2 matches but the losses were against the #2 and #5 teams. Bodø/Glimt ended up winning 4:1.

[spicollifcfd]

Thanks for the tip QL I'm on it

[juicername]

A couple of points:
The general consensus in Norway is that Valerenga has been playing good football and will start climbing the table shortly.
Sogndal off a tough 4-3 win against Molde, let down spot here?
Sogndal plays its home games on artificial grass, not it'll have the transition to natural grass at Ullevaal.

Still think I'll tail you though, Sogndal should be able to salvage a draw.

[QuantumLeap]

A couple of points:
The general consensus in Norway is that Valerenga has been playing good football and will start climbing the table shortly.
Sogndal off a tough 4-3 win against Molde, let down spot here?
Sogndal plays its home games on artificial grass, not it'll have the transition to natural grass at Ullevaal.

Still think I'll tail you though, Sogndal should be able to salvage a draw.

Thanks for the input. Yes, they had been playing well at home winning 3 in a row. However, their form as of late has resulted in a loss in 4 of their last attempts. I'm thinking their earlier form is giving them their -0.5 handicap.

I'm hoping for at least a draw here as well. As mentioned previously, they have not failed to get at least a draw in their last 8 matches.

[QuantumLeap]

Haugesund PK -145 over Viking FK
Simply put, Haugesund have not lost at home all season. They have a very healthy goals scored/goals allowed record of 17-9 at home.

[Stackzilla]

Gotta love these lines, books havent caught up to transfers yet and Valerenga just got rid of Brown their top scorer. I took Sogndal to win and the +.5. Hoping for repeat Odd v Viking. There's a few over valued fav's today BOL everyone.

[juicername]

Talked to a Norwegian buddy of my who know a lot about Norwegian football.

"Valerenga has been lousy lately, have seen their matches. Only thing that makes me a little in doubt is the latest positive news about Valerenga. They are planning a major investment from next season, new stadium and investors. Ronny Deila is brought in as a new coach and former Rosenborg and Strømsgodset director will take over daily operations. Has been part of this in the news this week. Could certainly be helping to motivate the players, but they have indeed been absolutely miserable in recent games". (Google translated, too lazy to fix and should be readable anyway).

He more or less agreed that Sogndal +0.5 was a decent play though.

[QuantumLeap]

Talked to a Norwegian buddy of my who know a lot about Norwegian football.

"Valerenga has been lousy lately, have seen their matches. Only thing that makes me a little in doubt is the latest positive news about Valerenga. They are planning a major investment from next season, new stadium and investors. Ronny Deila is brought in as a new coach and former Rosenborg and Strømsgodset director will take over daily operations. Has been part of this in the news this week. Could certainly be helping to motivate the players, but they have indeed been absolutely miserable in recent games". (Google translated, too lazy to fix and should be readable anyway).

He more or less agreed that Sogndal +0.5 was a decent play though.

Thanks for the in-depth info juicer. I've been trying to get more info out of my cousin's husband. They live near Tromso. Also trying to get info from social media. Your info is even better.

I hope Vålerenga isn't inspired by this new info. The lines haven't moved much all week so we will see later today.

[QuantumLeap]

Gotta love these lines, books havent caught up to transfers yet and Valerenga just got rid of Brown their top scorer. I took Sogndal to win and the +.5. Hoping for repeat Odd v Viking. There's a few over valued fav's today BOL everyone.

Wow! That's big. Hopefully they will be in disarray after losing Brown.

[juicername]

Yeah Sogndal looks really good, almost too good, no way it will win now! lol

[juicername]

Thanks for the in-depth info juicer. I've been trying to get more info out of my cousin's husband. They live near Tromso. Also trying to get info from social media. Your info is even better.

I hope Vålerenga isn't inspired by this new info. The lines haven't moved much all week so we will see later today.

Nah man, thank you. I think there's great value to be found from these smaller leagues if you have the patience to sift through the games. This one wouldn't even have been on my radar without your thread.

[Stackzilla]

Yeah Sogndal looks really good, almost too good, no way it will win now! lol

agreed lol see it too many times, i'm locked in riding it out.

[QuantumLeap]

Equalizer! Let's hold this boys.

[Stackzilla]

One more!

[juicername]

Solid

[QuantumLeap]

Thanks for the tip QL I'm on it

FT 1-1 winner!

[QuantumLeap]

Solid

Thanks. Had to sweat a little there.

Let's get the next one tomorrow.

[Stackzilla]

Couldnt get the double up but i'll take the +.5 BOL today everyone

[QuantumLeap]

Haugesund PK -145 over Viking FK
Simply put, Haugesund have not lost at home all season. They have a very healthy goals scored/goals allowed record of 17-9 at home.

FT: Haugesund 4, Viking 1

Well I have to admit I didn't expect that result. I was thinking more of a 2-1 or even 1-1 score.

[QuantumLeap]

Going for 3 in a row.

I'm not going to say anything about this one other than it fits a trend for Strømsgodset. If this wins I will simply offer my pick without explanation in the future

Strømsgodset/Tromsø over 3 -121

[QuantumLeap]

Going to go out on a limb here:

Sarpsborg 08 ML -140 over Lillestrøm
Sarpsborg is one position above Lillestrøm in the tables. Looking solely at the positions, one would think Lillestrøm would have a good chance at giving a draw. This is where the two teams differ.

Lillestrøm started out well in the season but have lost 4 out of their last 5. Sarpsborg is the opposite. They won 5 in a row before losing 2-5 to league-leader Rosenborg. They will have the motivation to bounce back from that humiliating loss.

[QuantumLeap]

Loss: Strømsgodset 1, Tromsø 0, don't know what happened to this high-scoring team.
Win: Sarpsborg 3, Lillestrøm 0, again, another unexpected great showing. I was expecting Sarpsborg to win by 1. I'll take it.

3-1 for the week.

[QuantumLeap]

It's so quiet in the Soccer Forum you could hear a church mouse fart!

Loss: Strømsgodset 1, Tromsø 0, don't know what happened to this high-scoring team.

Win: Sarpsborg 3, Lillestrøm 0, again, another unexpected great showing. I was expecting Sarpsborg to win by 1. I'll take it.

3-1 for the week for this league.