I have my eyes on a few picks, I'll give my reasoning and would love to hear other's opinions on them..
Poland - Portugal
Poland to Qualify (+150 ) - I'm honestly surprised to see such high odds for this. Portugal has played 4 games so far and disappointed in all of them. The overall strategy of the team seems to be "pass to Ronaldo and maybe something will happen". They lack ambition and willpower, and remind me a lot of the way the England team plays. They are in the QF without a single win in the tournament so far. The Portuguese defense is quite vulnerable, and easy to break when tested. I feel like they have been given way too much credit for their progression vs Croatia, this was the first game in a major tournament since 1980 with ZERO shots on target in 90 minutes, Croatia simply played a horrible game and did not even test the Portuguese defense until extra time, where one of their first attacks ended with a shot against the post. I think this was a huge mistake on their part, as the Portuguese have conceded 3 goals against Hungary and could've easily been broken down if tested. Ronaldo has been sub-par, with his only goals coming against a very vulnerable Hungarian defence (as Belgium so clearly exposed), the rest of the team seems to lack focus and purpose on the field. On the other side, we have a Polish team which conceded one goal in their 4 games at the cup, and managed to get a draw against Germany, which they could've easily beat if Milik had not missed two of the best chances in the game. The Glik Pazdan CB duet has risen to one of the best CB pairs of the tournament. I feel like this will be a game where Portugal will be banging their head on the wall for 90 minutes, trying to score against Poland's solid defence, which will sit back for most of the game. This will expose Portugal in the back which Poland's fast wingers Grosicki and Blaszczykowski will make full use of. Lewandowski is still goalless at the tournament and this could be a game in which he will shine.
2. Portugal -2 Asian Corner Handicap (+105) - Portugal : (11 - 2 v Iceland, 10 - 0 v Austria, 9 - 3 v Hungary and 2-6 v Croatia) This won in all of the Portugal games by a wide margin, except the game with Croatia. The only difference is that they played defensive football v Croatia, whereas they attacked all the other teams. They were considered favorites in all their games with the exception of the game v Croatia, and this leads me to believe that they will return to attacking in their game with Poland, as they will feel they are favourites in this game. Poland likes to sit back and play on the counter, and I think this pick has a 60-70% chance of winning.
Germany - Italy
Italy to Qualify ( +150) - Germany shares a lot of characteristics with the Spanish team, most of their players are from Bayern which followed the Guardiola tiki-taka philosophy. Italy loves playing against teams like this, they have the best defense at the tournament and I feel they can even make it to the final. They are incredibly disciplined and love being the underdog. Germany have not convinced me in this tournament with any of their performances. They had 3 very average group stage games, and only scored 3 goals in them. The win against Slovakia was definitely a better performance, however Slovakia is simply a poor team in my opinion in this tournament, they only won one game, against a horrible Russian side. Secondly, that game was set up for Germany from the start with a goal in the first 15 minutes of play. I feel like Italy will impress further, like they did against Spain and manage to qualify here.
Alternative Picks :
Poland v Portugal - Draw (+200) - I see a pretty large chance of this game being settled in ET or penalties.
Poland v Portugal - Draw and Under 2.5 (+225)
Poland or Draw (-151)
Italy or Draw (-151)
Poland - Portugal
Poland to Qualify (+150 ) - I'm honestly surprised to see such high odds for this. Portugal has played 4 games so far and disappointed in all of them. The overall strategy of the team seems to be "pass to Ronaldo and maybe something will happen". They lack ambition and willpower, and remind me a lot of the way the England team plays. They are in the QF without a single win in the tournament so far. The Portuguese defense is quite vulnerable, and easy to break when tested. I feel like they have been given way too much credit for their progression vs Croatia, this was the first game in a major tournament since 1980 with ZERO shots on target in 90 minutes, Croatia simply played a horrible game and did not even test the Portuguese defense until extra time, where one of their first attacks ended with a shot against the post. I think this was a huge mistake on their part, as the Portuguese have conceded 3 goals against Hungary and could've easily been broken down if tested. Ronaldo has been sub-par, with his only goals coming against a very vulnerable Hungarian defence (as Belgium so clearly exposed), the rest of the team seems to lack focus and purpose on the field. On the other side, we have a Polish team which conceded one goal in their 4 games at the cup, and managed to get a draw against Germany, which they could've easily beat if Milik had not missed two of the best chances in the game. The Glik Pazdan CB duet has risen to one of the best CB pairs of the tournament. I feel like this will be a game where Portugal will be banging their head on the wall for 90 minutes, trying to score against Poland's solid defence, which will sit back for most of the game. This will expose Portugal in the back which Poland's fast wingers Grosicki and Blaszczykowski will make full use of. Lewandowski is still goalless at the tournament and this could be a game in which he will shine.
2. Portugal -2 Asian Corner Handicap (+105) - Portugal : (11 - 2 v Iceland, 10 - 0 v Austria, 9 - 3 v Hungary and 2-6 v Croatia) This won in all of the Portugal games by a wide margin, except the game with Croatia. The only difference is that they played defensive football v Croatia, whereas they attacked all the other teams. They were considered favorites in all their games with the exception of the game v Croatia, and this leads me to believe that they will return to attacking in their game with Poland, as they will feel they are favourites in this game. Poland likes to sit back and play on the counter, and I think this pick has a 60-70% chance of winning.
Germany - Italy
Italy to Qualify ( +150) - Germany shares a lot of characteristics with the Spanish team, most of their players are from Bayern which followed the Guardiola tiki-taka philosophy. Italy loves playing against teams like this, they have the best defense at the tournament and I feel they can even make it to the final. They are incredibly disciplined and love being the underdog. Germany have not convinced me in this tournament with any of their performances. They had 3 very average group stage games, and only scored 3 goals in them. The win against Slovakia was definitely a better performance, however Slovakia is simply a poor team in my opinion in this tournament, they only won one game, against a horrible Russian side. Secondly, that game was set up for Germany from the start with a goal in the first 15 minutes of play. I feel like Italy will impress further, like they did against Spain and manage to qualify here.
Alternative Picks :
Poland v Portugal - Draw (+200) - I see a pretty large chance of this game being settled in ET or penalties.
Poland v Portugal - Draw and Under 2.5 (+225)
Poland or Draw (-151)
Italy or Draw (-151)
Belgium v Wales is one of those games I can't find much value in, the Wales qualification pays pretty well, but I think that game will be very tight until the first goal, if Wales concede for 0-1 I think they're done, kinda like Hungary or Ireland, both games were super tight until the first goal, and then they ended 3-0 and 4-0 for Belgium...maybe I'm wrong, but that's my gut feeling.
Will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out. Just some interesting additional info I found, Lewandowski hasn't scored in his past 4 games, each 9 times this has happened previously, he has always scored in the 5th game (Lewandowski to Score anytime pays around +200).