Euro 2016 playoffs - Round one upsets

Thryleon · 06-23-16, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by Grivas_Digeni

How many +money teams are going to make it? I think no more than three (I'm looking at Switzerland, Northern Ireland and Italy).

Odds from Pinnacle as of early Thursday morning, 6/23

-126 Poland
+116 Switzerland

-215 Wales
+197 Northern Ireland

-127 Croatia
+118 Portugal

-555 France
+480 Ireland

-505 Germany
+441 Slovakia

-365 Belgium
+326 Hungary

-189 Spain
+174 Italy

-420 England
+372 Iceland

Purely based on the odds, and the two amazing games played respectively by Croatia and Hungary in MatchDay 3, I would say either team has a pretty good chance of going through, and Hungary +326 is a must bet.

I quite disagee.

Poland has played much better football and Levandowsky hasn't spoken yet.
Portugal passed on draws and goal differentials. Croatia is far deadlier and more composed.
Belgium - Hungary and Italy - Spain is a matter of goalkeepers. Courtois has saved Belgium repeatedly. He is in good form. Buffon is Buffon. De Gea is obviously affected by the rumours against him. If I bet on something is that both matches will go to penalty shoot outs.
N. Ireland is good but they do not have anyone even near Bale's or Ramsey's class.
I actually think that none of the +money will advance.

Nova99 · 06-23-16, 07:49 AM

Ireland to avenge henry handball!!!!!

Grivas_Digeni · 06-23-16, 01:13 PM

I'd say Poland played nobody. Germany wasn't really trying and the other two teams were subpar. Not saying they can't improve but based on strengths of schedule, Poland shouldn't be on anybody's 'to bet' list.

beefcake · 06-23-16, 03:50 PM

Hungary next to Albania was the biggest longshot to win it before it started.Now they are playing the #3 team in the world and are only +330..Tells you something right there about the mad respect the books have for them.That is my upset #1 pick

adila1401 · 06-23-16, 04:45 PM

Hungary as well for me..don't let Belgium fool u..they are too conservative and could easily lose 1-0 late

Grivas_Digeni · 06-24-16, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Hungary next to Albania was the biggest longshot to win it before it started.Now they are playing the #3 team in the world and are only +330..Tells you something right there about the mad respect the books have for them.That is my upset #1 pick

Only +330? How much longer can a semi-competitive soccer team be?

Wasn't USA, too, around +350 +400 to advance past Argentina in that recent Copa America semi?

vasilli07 · 06-24-16, 03:53 AM

I will go with Portugal. Croatia could have peaked too early. Portugal is going to be an underdog for the 1st time and I think they can still play better.

Thryleon · 06-24-16, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by vasilli07

I will go with Portugal. Croatia could have peaked too early. Portugal is going to be an underdog for the 1st time and I think they can still play better.

Croatia has the best combination of midfielders in the tournament. They have not peaked. They can play even better. As long as Portugal is based only on Nani and Ronaldo they will have a problem.

PorkChop · 06-24-16, 07:19 AM

Ireland and Iceland with the two upset shots.

Belgium is going to final.

Grivas_Digeni · 06-24-16, 01:22 PM

I'm trying to understand why - apart from the rankings - Hungary is given so little credit compared to Croatia.

I thought both teams played an exceptional group round. Is beating Spain - with a lot of luck, mind you - that much more impressive than tying a (very determined, motivated) Portugal team, when a tie equals a win for tournament purposes?

Or is +320 available because Belgium (Hungary's opponent) is so much better than Portugal (Croatia's opponent)?

Please explain this to me before I plunge into Hungary with both feet.

swordsandtequila · 06-24-16, 01:24 PM

Because, in my humble opinion, Portugal blows.

arrgy · 06-24-16, 01:34 PM

If you watched Belgium's first match against the Italy, they clearly were the better team man for man. However Italy was the better team, Belgium just kind of quit on themselves. They beat Ireland, who they should have beaten. Then they go and barely beat a 10 man Sweden team that was already out of it by the third game.

In other words, Belgium has been a huge disappointment in 2 of the 3 matches. At this point it is a mental thing.

Grivas_Digeni · 06-24-16, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

Because, in my humble opinion, Portugal blows.

I'm with you. And so are the bookies.

However, the difference between slight favorite (Croatia) and +300 (Hungary) is just too much to look away from maybe, possibly, betting Hungary. Both teams came ready to play. Unlike Austria, Ukraine or Sweden.

Who do you think moves on, among the 8 teams that are at plus money right now? Who has a decent chance to make it to semis/finals?

Grivas_Digeni · 06-25-16, 02:44 AM

Updated odds (from Thursday morning 48 hours ago to current odds on Saturday morning)

Odds from Pinnacle as of early Thursday morning, 6/23

-126 => -131 Poland
+116 => +121 Switzerland

-215 => -230 Wales
+197 => +210 Northern Ireland

-127 => -119 Croatia
+118 => +110 Portugal

-555 France
+480 Ireland

-505 => -575 Germany
+441 => +496 Slovakia

-365 Belgium
+326 Hungary

-189 Spain
+174 Italy

-420 => -460 England
+372 => +405 Iceland

adila1401 · 06-25-16, 06:23 AM

Portugal has the best shot. I'm definitely sprinkling some on Hungary and Italy..also will be pulling for Iceland!!

16kredit · 06-25-16, 07:49 AM

Im Hungarian and can confirm, whole country is in soccer fever right now. The team is very good and also, against portugal lot of substitute players were starters because of previous yellow cards for others. No Kleinheisler, Adam Nagy. Right now on full strength we should go to draw at least. Then penalties. Our 3 goals against Portugal were aided greatly with luck. THe first time we were up against a swift aggressive team, we surrendered 3 goals also. Hope I could helped you guys

Grivas_Digeni · 06-25-16, 08:18 AM

Do you think Croatia and/or Hungary play super aggressive like they have in match day 3?

It got the job done but will coaches risk it and play with high pressure on opponent's half, rather than parking the bus and playing for penalty shootout? I was shocked to see how aggressive Croatia was against Spain - but it was dictated by the tournament considerations (losing didn't hurt, winning would improve group position)... and if they do it again against Portugal, I can see a ton of goals - something to consider for in-play betting.

But i doubt they will

16kredit · 06-25-16, 08:34 AM

Hungary cannot really go aggressive, we dont have any superstars up front. Against portugal we loaded the box, almost every time sent back 10 to defend. We barely managed to put together 2-3 attacks, and with the 2 freekicks we got lucky. Although Gera's goal was pure perfection, voted first rounds best goal. Hun team played a bit loose football against ronaldo and co. We didnt need to get points as by that time the team was already in the 16.

Thryleon · 06-27-16, 03:54 AM

It would appear that Belgium decided to provide people with some definite answers and Portugal is as lucky as possible. Belgium demolished the Hungarians and Croatia was clearly the better side on the field. Yet one counter and the job was done for Portugal.

Tonight is probalby the match that can set the entire tournament. Italy vs Spain. And I can offer no insights other than the experience of the Italian players and the mastery of tactics from Conte. Spain is not what it used to be. But still a top level team. My guess would be for overtime and penalty shoot out.

The last encounter between England and Iceland is a problem of efficiency. England is inefficient while Iceland is tremendously efficient. England will create opportunities. If they can take advantage of them then they have a chance. Iceland is capable of scoring if given even half a chance.

oldscho0led · 06-27-16, 05:13 AM

Kinda surprised no one is saying Italy for the upset.

16kredit · 06-27-16, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Thryleon

It would appear that Belgium decided to provide people with some definite answers and Portugal is as lucky as possible. Belgium demolished the Hungarians and Croatia was clearly the better side on the field. Yet one counter and the job was done for Portugal.

Tonight is probalby the match that can set the entire tournament. Italy vs Spain. And I can offer no insights other than the experience of the Italian players and the mastery of tactics from Conte. Spain is not what it used to be. But still a top level team. My guess would be for overtime and penalty shoot out.

The last encounter between England and Iceland is a problem of efficiency. England is inefficient while Iceland is tremendously efficient. England will create opportunities. If they can take advantage of them then they have a chance. Iceland is capable of scoring if given even half a chance.

few notes. First of all the 0-4 is not really accurate of what happened. We were actually in the game for 70 mins where about the second goal went in. Then Hungary kind of given up unfortunately. So not like they were trying so hard from that point. Not to mention we had some very great attacks and attempts. Belg goalie actually had some job in the second half.
I think this was one of the most entertaining games to watch to yet as Hungary didnt park the bus like most teams, they took chances, ultiamtely cost them the game but what do they expect against the best European team probably.

Grivas_Digeni · 06-27-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by Thryleon

I quite disagee.

I actually think that none of the +money will advance.

Amazing call, so far.

Grivas_Digeni · 06-27-16, 03:47 PM

And ... it turns out that backing every plus money underdog to advance would actually make profit

+4.5 iceland
+1.6 italy

...and portugal?

Thryleon · 06-28-16, 03:34 AM

Well Grivas it seems that you were right about 3 +money teams advancing only it was 3 other teams. Iceland, Italy and Portugal. You were correct only on Italy. Now my call for the next phase:

Poland - Portugal. Portugal on penalty shoot out or on a score at overtime.
Belgium - Wales. Belgium eyes closed.
Italy - Germany. This is the toughest one. Italy is good but Germany has yet to concede a goal. And they have been playing better lately.
France - Iceland. Iceland. YES ICELAND! They are cynical and VERY VERY EFFECTIVE. 2 goals for every 5 chances they get.

Belgium will reach the final. I have no doubt on this. They will face the winner of Italy - Germany. And then either of these 2 will win the cup.