Copa América 2015 Official Thread

[ace_202]

Copa América 2015

Group A	Group B	Group C
Chile	Argentina	Brazil
Mexico	Uruguay	Colombia
Ecuador	Paraguay	Peru
Bolivia	Jamaica	Venezuela
Predicted A Winner	Predicted B Winner	Predicted C Winner
Chile	Argentina	Colombia
Predicted A R/Up	Predicted B R/Up	Predicted C R/Up
Mexico	Uruguay	Brazil
3rd to Qual	3rd to Qual	3rd to Qual
Bolivia	-	Peru

Golden Boot: Neymar
Winner: Argentina
Runner Up: Brazil



All my predictions for the upcoming world tournament. What does everything think and have for their plays?

[dreamlanding]

I had a couple of preconceived notions about this tournament that proved to be incorrect: lots of draws and lots of unders.

Looked at the last five tournaments and came up with:

33 draws out of 130 matches (25.4%) which is probably average for anywhere.

UNDER 2.5 is 64-66 (49.2%)

I think this idea came from watching the last Copa America in 2011, which is the first one I followed closely and it had an inordinate amount of both draws and unders. DRAW hit @ 46.2% and Under 2.5 hit at 69.2%, which proved to be an outlier compared to the four tournaments before it.

Although, it could perhaps be argued that the "big sides" were stronger from 1999-2007. Maybe there is more parity among the South American teams now and lots of draws/unders is a blossoming trend rather than an anomaly.

[ace_202]

I dont see there be as many this year. Obviously hard to tell from this far out, not knowing teams and what not. I see Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and Chile winning 8 matches between them, possibly 11-12. I'm expecting 30 or so draws from the tournament. Very interesting concept though you bring up.

Second round matches of the group stages for most competitions are always under by nature. Other than that, most teams are going to want to go out and get the choccies because there isn't much competition and its going to be extremely tight. We'll see though.

[unitedlad]

Actually looking forward to this tournament for the first time ever.

Hoping Chile and Colombia can kick on from their WC success. Chile were so damn unlucky to go out against Brazil. I had a decent sized bet on Chile in that one.

Mexico also super unlucky against Netherlands.

Some serious quality in this tournament.

Really hoping for a few upsets. Brazil to go out early.

[Betlitelli]

Mexico without: Hernandez, Vela, Guardado, H.Moreno.G.dos Santos, H.Herrera i dont expect a lot from them, took early Boliwia +1.25, also I think Ecuador have good chance to qualify here.

Took Cavani top scorer @17 without Suarez he will be taking every free-kick,PK and will be main strike force for Uruguay he can score 3or4 in one game against reggae-boys...

Brazil improved defensively with Dunga and should win a lot of games to nil.

Argentina best team in tournament with Otamendi, healthy DiMaria, Aguero and Messi in great form, much better that on WC.

[Mase of Base]

Don't the concacaf sides always bring average/youth sides? Mexico still did alright from memory last time, Jamaica are in for a world of pain though.

Really enjoy this tourny, be nice to see Chile and their exciting brand of football do well at home.

[ace_202]

Mexico without: Hernandez, Vela, Guardado, H.Moreno.G.dos Santos, H.Herrera i dont expect a lot from them, took early Boliwia +1.25, also I think Ecuador have good chance to qualify here.

Took Cavani top scorer @17 without Suarez he will be taking every free-kick,PK and will be main strike force for Uruguay he can score 3or4 in one game against reggae-boys...

Brazil improved defensively with Dunga and should win a lot of games to nil.

Argentina best team in tournament with Otamendi, healthy DiMaria, Aguero and Messi in great form, much better that on WC.

Didn't actually know about all those outs, especially surprised at the Hernandez out. Why's that? I don't really rate Cavani all that much to be honest. He gets in bad positions most of the time and i just dont like his style all that much. Mr Offside.

[gegege]

Mexico puts the Gold Cup first, that's why they always use an alternate squad.

There will only be one player that will be in both tournaments: Jesus Corona from Twente.

I don't see Mexico doing much but they don't have bad records against the teams they will face. They did bad back in 2011, last place to be exact mainly because they used their u-23 squad.

[JayLA]

Colombia wants Brazilian blood

[ace_202]

Colombia wants Brazilian blood

This is precisely why i have Colombia topping the table. 3-1 in their World Cup match did not do Colombia justice at all.

[cogiditopapa]

Colombia has always wanted Brazilian blood, but Brazil has a long outstanding parenthood against Colombia.
Check the pattern Brazil has been having after the WC, I have watch most of their games and they have regrouped well under Dunga.

Colombia is becoming a good contender but mentally they are always beaten by Brasil & Argentina, In South America this are the 2 big monsters and both are playing really well.

I think Colombia will put up a really good fight but in key matches against Brasil or even Argentina they will come out 2 cents short. I Again I do no think The parenthood Brasil has over Colombia will end anytime soon. The game against Brasil will be label like this after it ends "Colombia play like never before, but lost to Brasil like always". I love Colombia Style but Brasil is a class above.

Chile should be a pleasant host, I think they will have the extra to push in key games due to the fact that they are at home, but will also fall short, When they are losing, Chile usually doesn't have the composure to keep calm and work things out, I expect in those key games, bookings and red cards for players such as Medel and Vidal.

Mexico, Eventhought Mexico will bring an alternate team, I am sure they will put up a good fight against everyone and even win a game or two. El tecatito (plays for twente) is the heart of the team, The only thing I expect from mexico is to keep matches close to Chile and Ecuador, even Bolivia. If Mexico would have brought the full squad everyone even Brasil and Argentina would have really tough nut to crack.

Peru, couple of things that catch my attention from this team is that now they have a new Coach, Gareca, he was a long time coach of Velez Sarsfield in Argentina, very offensive coach. "la foquita" Farfan (Schalke) is healthy and Guerrero too, I really like what Farfan brings to the table, he is skillful and fast. With the mix of the couch and good experience at front I think we will see an offensive Peru but their weakness is in defense and Midfield, this hasn't got any better and I think we can see overs in Peru games.
Yesterday in a friendly match they draw 1-1 with Mexico in Peru, In Copa America will be a real motive for Peru to try to beat teams like Venezuela, Try to put up a fight with Colombia (will probably last until Colombia scores).

I will write later as I am reading a lot about all teams to make sure I am up to date. I will pass up the info if anyone would like to read.

[indio]

Colombia has always wanted Brazilian blood, but Brazil has a long outstanding parenthood against Colombia.
Check the pattern Brazil has been having after the WC, I have watch most of their games and they have regrouped well under Dunga.

Colombia is becoming a good contender but mentally they are always beaten by Brasil & Argentina, In South America this are the 2 big monsters and both are playing really well.

I think Colombia will put up a really good fight but in key matches against Brasil or even Argentina they will come out 2 cents short. I Again I do no think The parenthood Brasil has over Colombia will end anytime soon. The game against Brasil will be label like this after it ends "Colombia play like never before, but lost to Brasil like always". I love Colombia Style but Brasil is a class above.

Chile should be a pleasant host, I think they will have the extra to push in key games due to the fact that they are at home, but will also fall short, When they are losing, Chile usually doesn't have the composure to keep calm and work things out, I expect in those key games, bookings and red cards for players such as Medel and Vidal.

Mexico, Eventhought Mexico will bring an alternate team, I am sure they will put up a good fight against everyone and even win a game or two. El tecatito (plays for twente) is the heart of the team, The only thing I expect from mexico is to keep matches close to Chile and Ecuador, even Bolivia. If Mexico would have brought the full squad everyone even Brasil and Argentina would have really tough nut to crack.

Peru, couple of things that catch my attention from this team is that now they have a new Coach, Gareca, he was a long time coach of Velez Sarsfield in Argentina, very offensive coach. "la foquita" Farfan (Schalke) is healthy and Guerrero too, I really like what Farfan brings to the table, he is skillful and fast. With the mix of the couch and good experience at front I think we will see an offensive Peru but their weakness is in defense and Midfield, this hasn't got any better and I think we can see overs in Peru games.
Yesterday in a friendly match they draw 1-1 with Mexico in Peru, In Copa America will be a real motive for Peru to try to beat teams like Venezuela, Try to put up a fight with Colombia (will probably last until Colombia scores).

I will write later as I am reading a lot about all teams to make sure I am up to date. I will pass up the info if anyone would like to read.

This are the 2 big monsters and playing really well? This teams haven't played a match since March, but yeah, they're playing really well.

You think Messi is looking forward to this tournament after the long season he's had? After a great season, and a CL final tomorrow, he'd rather be on a beach than playing in this 2cnd rate tourney in Chile. In July, Barca have a 4 game tour in the states that I'm sure the organizers want him there for, this poor guy doesn't ever get any time off. Neymar and Suarez (along with Maschereno, Vidal and Tevez) will also be less than enthused I'm sure.

If Neymar sleepwalks through this, Brazil will have slim pickings up front with Robinho and Tardelii, although I am looking forward to the Shakhtar Donetsk midfield reunion with Willian, Fernandinho, and Douglas Costa.

Hey, I love the Copa America, the games are fun and there's plenty of action(as in gambling action), but these players are tired, and many of them have commitments to play in July, so there will be a lot of empty gas tanks. Every time they run this tourney, there are always a few teams that just seem that they could care less about it.

I'm looking forward to watching Pablo Escobar for Bolivia, as he was dynamite for The Strongest this year, and I'm curious to see the Bolanos/Valencia duo up front for Ecuador. Chile is always fun to watch, and the games should be entertaining. I just cringe that they feel the need to invite teams like Jamaica and Mexico every year to give them 3 groups of 4, only to have 8 out of 12 go to the knockouts. Keep it a true CONMEBOL tournament and have 2 groups of 5, split Brasil and Argentina into separate groups, and have the top 2 in each group go to the knockouts.

[cogiditopapa]

You seem to know a lot my friend, I would love to know more of your insights if you think Brasil and Argentina are not the best 2 teams in South America right now. Last time I check they were playing really well. but I will make a note that Messi don't care and Neymar neither because they are tired after a long season. Thank you for sharing your in dept thought about how we can make a profit, it will be very useful.

[swordsandtequila]

[ace_202]

Neymar will have no hassles playing in this tournament. I'd hate to write off Brazil on this basis. All over his IG feed he's posting about his soccer duties and at a really young age, he's chomping at the bit to go out there and play football. Don't buy the 'tired' point. For Messi though i could give some account for. His family on another hand though will be looking forward to heading to Argentina for a 4 week holiday so again, i don't really buy Messi feeling like he has to do this tournament. At the end of the day, they play because they love it. Messi won't have a preseason though for the 15/16 season, he'll just jump straight in.

[ace_202]

First game tomorrow. Will post my plays in this thread, people feel free to comment.

Game: Chile V Ecuador
Bet: Chile ML / Under 2.5
Reason: Host country kicks off the tournament and what better way than Chile to take first blood in the tournament. Its what everyone wants to see especially from the host country and Ecuador will know this. This is why i feel the under 2.5 is the play here. Ecuador will want to make a good start to the campaign and be limiting goal/shots, they could scrape through as the 2nd highest 3rd ranked team. Chile to win for easy pickings or if you want more value, under 2.5.

Thoughts?

[Darkside Magick]

DRAW +313 - Ecuador (Copa America) vs Chile (Copa America)

[ace_202]

1 - 1?

[cogiditopapa]

Fun Fact I just read from a famous statistics soccer freak:

In 4 of the 5 Copa America's were Uruguay won the championship, the kick off match ended 0-0 at half time.

Good statistical facts all the time, his tweeter is MisterChip @2010MisterChip

[ace_202]

Haha, i'm definitely not backing Uruguay to win the championship here. I cant decide if Chile haven't been as good as i'd like or if Ecuador have been solid in the back.

[ace_202]

First game tomorrow. Will post my plays in this thread, people feel free to comment.

Game: Chile V Ecuador
Bet: Chile ML / Under 2.5
Reason: Host country kicks off the tournament and what better way than Chile to take first blood in the tournament. Its what everyone wants to see especially from the host country and Ecuador will know this. This is why i feel the under 2.5 is the play here. Ecuador will want to make a good start to the campaign and be limiting goal/shots, they could scrape through as the 2nd highest 3rd ranked team. Chile to win for easy pickings or if you want more value, under 2.5.

Thoughts?

Copa America Tally:
W: 2 | L: 0

Game: Mexico V Bolivia
Bet: Under 2.5
Reason: I'm backing the under again here simply because i feel the star power, or lack thereof, in this game will simply not be there. Mexico will go into the game favourites but there has to be upsets through the tournament and i wouldn't be surprised if Bolivia pinch a draw here. Mexico's form isn't the greatest coming into this tournament either which does not justify their odds going into the game. The under is the play in what will be a scrappy game.

Thoughts?

[dave sperling]

I think over 2.5 will cash

[smithah2]

yeah i was into the over 2.5 but i reading this made me think twice. he was right in the first match but its not gonna fly with all the first matches. I just think the point that there is no star power here for mexico and bolivia is true but if you look at it in a different perspective it could mean goals goals goals. There doesn't always need to be a high profile star quality striker/attacker to produce goals. Lots of times its just crap defense and low quality defenders that create a lot of goals, and thats what i see here. barring mexico's GK.

[ace_202]

I like your theory. I'm definitely thinking that Ochoa will keep a clean sheet here, just a matter of if Mexico will score big time, and i dont, hence i feel the under. We're about to see.

[ace_202]

I like your theory. I'm definitely thinking that Ochoa will keep a clean sheet here, just a matter of if Mexico will score big time, and i dont, hence i feel the under. We're about to see.

Corona in goals, what's Ochoa doing? He isn't playing any club games at the moment.

[smithah2]

Yeah that's interesting. Could put a spin on the total. We'll see!'

[birdman24]

Under is a lock

[ace_202]

0-0 draw is strong now

[JayLA]

Very good read on start of tournament, Ace.

[trobin31]

Good start, under arg/Paraguay today?

[ace_202]

Copa America Tally:
W: 2 | L: 0

Game: Mexico V Bolivia
Bet: Under 2.5
Reason: I'm backing the under again here simply because i feel the star power, or lack thereof, in this game will simply not be there. Mexico will go into the game favourites but there has to be upsets through the tournament and i wouldn't be surprised if Bolivia pinch a draw here. Mexico's form isn't the greatest coming into this tournament either which does not justify their odds going into the game. The under is the play in what will be a scrappy game.

Thoughts?

Sorry guys! Had a big night so i missed the games to post today.
Mexico played out as expected, wasn't much of a game at all really, actually liked Bolivia's chances throughout the game but couldn't translate to goals. Will watch heavily going into their next game.

Copa America Tally:
W: 3 | L: 0


Game: Colombia V Venezuela
Bet: Over 2.5
Reason: I was a big favourite of the Colombians heading into last years world cup. Though they didn't produce World Cup quality football, they did produce a world class man. I like this game to be the first game that goes over the total today. I think we'll see a fired up Falcao in this one, he scored a brace in their warm up games and on the brink of making a move to another EPL team i think he'll have a point to prove. Colombia again should win, but i like the over here.


Game: Brazil V Peru
Bet: Teams to keep a clean sheet: Brazil
Reason: Since their new coach has taken over they have been absolutely rock solid in defense and I see what could very well be a low scoring affair here. Brazil should win, and with Brazil's Neymar up top the over/under play is too risky. I decided to play the other end of goals just to be a little safer. Peru are a 'filler' team with not much going in for them. I don't expect Peru to trouble the onion sack at the other end. I'm feeling 2-0 to Brazil, but inevitably, Brazil to keep a clean sheet.


Thoughts?

[swordsandtequila]

Only thought I have is that Argentina are a bunch of choking dogs. That said, nice start and continued good luck.

[TwoWays]

Messi can't ever lift his country. One thing missing in his resume

[ace_202]

I wouldn't read into the Argentina draw too much. Messi himself was in Spain just yesterday and having done a few flights myself, jet lag will get the best of us all the same. Props to Paraguay though.

[swordsandtequila]

Fuk Argentina, had them in a parlay with Poland and Uruguay. Up 2-0 and then