EP36's Futbol Thread, Sponsored by Ninjas

[EaglesPhan36]

The Futbol Association of Ninjas has given me the grand sum of $1 to put up or shut up with some picks. No jinxes. They have told me the keys are discipline and not betting on Turkish league matches. Weekends during American football season, plays will definitely follow the discipline route as there is too much to bet on to pay attention to everything. So usually there will be one main bet for a Euro league early on Saturdays & Sundays and then tracking MLS & LigaMX only the rest of the day.

Fade of follow. The Ninjas are on the job. All lines are from BetDSI unless otherwise noted.



8.31.14
MLS: DC United-NY Red Bull Over 2.5 @ -121

[EaglesPhan36]

Italy Serie A: 1st Half Udinese-Empoli Over 1 @ +110

[EaglesPhan36]

So far, Scooby Doo mode. Cannot believe there is no score in this MLS match. Highway robbery by the goalies on a couple great chances.

[EaglesPhan36]

Spain La Liga HT: Real Sociedad-Real Madrid Over 5.5 @ -142

[EaglesPhan36]

Liga MX: 1st Half Guadalajara-Cruz Azul Under 1 @ -140

[EaglesPhan36]

Liga MX HT: Guadalajara Team Total Over 0.5 @ +103

[EaglesPhan36]

MLS: 1st Half Chivas-L.A. Galaxy Over 1 @ -140

[EaglesPhan36]

Profit Margin: -1.21

[EaglesPhan36]

9.1.14
Sweden Superettan: GIF Sundsvall-Assyriska Over 3 @ -105

[EaglesPhan36]

Draw Project
France Ligue 2: Brest-Nancy +185
Romania Liga 1: Universitatea Cluj-Iasi +225

[EaglesPhan36]

Germany Bundesliga 2 HT: Greuther Furth Total Corners 7 or More @ +260
*Risking 0.5 unit

[EaglesPhan36]

Just did get the corners prop! That'll negate the two misses on the draw project. Forgot to mention for anyone who cares, Draw Projects will always be risking 0.5 unit each.

[mathoiss]

You think the draw project is one possibility for a long time betting 1/2 unit? I think this is an unexplored market and quite interesting mainly for trade but requires one good studies, anyway BOL!

[EaglesPhan36]

You have to pick your spots. Definitely not something to play every day. Honestly, Saturdays and Sundays are probably the best day to try draws due to sheer volume of matches available. I like to Round Robin four or so of them every once in a while. Worked during a Champions League day for me recently, but you definitely have to be ready to lose 65% of your plays and be okay hammering away. If you can hit 30-35%, you should theoretically make money if you flat bet all your draws.

[bernardoGui]

You have to pick your spots. Definitely not something to play every day. Honestly, Saturdays and Sundays are probably the best day to try draws due to sheer volume of matches available. I like to Round Robin four or so of them every once in a while. Worked during a Champions League day for me recently, but you definitely have to be ready to lose 65% of your plays and be okay hammering away. If you can hit 30-35%, you should theoretically make money if you flat bet all your draws.

The French 'Ligue 2', as You targeted earlier today, is notorious for a relatively high average of draws and I warmly recommend to follow developments here very closely. On Friday, five in eight matches drawed, which is also the total number of draws for the now completed round 5 (10 matches pr round). So far this season, the Ligue 2 draw average is: 42%.

As a comparison, there were two draws in this latest round 6 of the Danish Superliga (6 matches pr round) and in the previous five rounds, four of them had two draws whereas the fifth and last contained only one draw. So far this season, the DK Superliga draw average is: 30.55%.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good stats my friend.

[EaglesPhan36]

Profit Margin: -0.91

[EaglesPhan36]

9.2.14
Sweden Superettan: Syrianska PK @ +127

[donny1266]

9.2.14
Sweden Superettan: Syrianska PK @ +127

Go careful with that game as it is rumoured to be fixed. Their last game was suspected to be fixed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Just went normal stakes as usual. Guess that would explain the price.

[donny1266]

The home team have drifted heavily even though they usually win at home.

[EaglesPhan36]

I got live betting on this, so I'll check it out as it goes. Maybe I can even out if it's shady.

[bernardoGui]

Go careful with that game as it is rumoured to be fixed. Their last game was suspected to be fixed.

Don't worry about it. Feel free to resume the investigation of the Kennedy-assassination. And ghosts!

GAIS (the away team) have performed way under their usual level so far this season, thus their immediate ranking in the Superettan table. But they've had a very good transfer-window and the re arrangements they've made, have almost immediately paid off. Last round's match was an example of that. No fix buddy!

[EaglesPhan36]

Just gonna stick with it. 1-0 for Syrianska late in the 1st. If something dirty happens later, so be it.

[EaglesPhan36]

England Johnstone Paint Trophy: Stevenage-Gillingham Over 2.5 @ -124

[paco]

Got a bad feeling Gais gets late goal for draw.

[EaglesPhan36]

Anyone got a video of the own goal - only seeing scoreboard and seeing OG for the tying goal definitely seems shady. Guess better to push than lose.

[paco]

Got a bad feeling Gais gets late goal for draw.

Totally fucken fixed

[donny1266]

Despicable fix as people were matched on betfair at 1.12 for the home win. Plenty of people blown their bank on that tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

England JFT HT: Peterborough-Leyton Orient Over 3.5 @+116

[EaglesPhan36]

Red Card Magneto strikes again. My skills should be on display in a museum

[16johnnymac]

England JFT HT: Peterborough-Leyton Orient Over 3.5 @+116

Nice work long time hope all is well do you have program for your plays or research ? Keep on winning $$

[bernardoGui]

Red Card Magneto strikes again. My skills should be on display in a museum

And it was one of those clean-cut-not-two-yellows red cards too !! Cool..

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice work long time hope all is well do you have program for your plays or research ? Keep on winning $$

I'm basically just a numbers cruncher. I sift through stats, bet a majority of the time on Overs and then the Draw Project. I don't have any of my stats long-term. I've had plenty of threads that have been both good and bad. Trying to just stick to one and we'll see how it goes. Half time plays I like the most because stats and match play can help you guess on the 2nd half too.

[16johnnymac]

Nice work thank u